In
This Edition...
Window
Dressing: Time to Chase Those Gains!
Sector/Industry
Outlook for the 2nd Half of 2009
Open Trade
Update - Raise the stop on Harvard Bioscience (HBIO)
Last
Chance to Look Good?
I love
calendar
milestones. As an active investor, they're the perfect reason to regroup,
and make a specific plan for the next major time frame looming on
the horizon. With that as a backdrop, today I've got some perspective that
could help you make a little more money in the second half of 2009 than
you may have otherwise.
First
things first though....
Today's
the last day of not just a fiscal quarter, but also a fiscal half-year.
Given how well stocks have done during Q2 (and despite the deep dive
into the red I'm seeing as I write this), I'm still seeing a decent
dose of window-dressing for a few select stocks today.
What's
'window dressing'? It's when fund managers add stocks to their portfolios
they wish they had added weeks ago. Basically, they're
chasing strong performers. They do it because they want to show their
bosses they've got a collection of healthy stocks as of the end of the
calendar quarter (when their bosses look at the portfolio's snapshot and
dole out bonuses). After that, the coasting resumes until the end of the
next quarter.
You
and I need to be aware of it because it can create artificial buying
demand for certain stocks. That demand may fade as early as tomorrow though...
the beginning of calendar Q3.
Just
be careful out there today - those hot pockets could be deceiving. That's
all.
Anyway,
my key thoughts for this edition are bigger than a mere day. I've
been working to identify longer-term sector and industry trends
I think should last through the end of the year. Take a look.
Industry
Selection & Strategy
Why
an industry-based approach to stock picking? In my experience, being
in the right sector or industry (or avoiding the wrong one) can
be just as important as picking the right stock.
My
selection strategy is simple. I want to see rising stocks, preferably
coming off of a recent low. I also want to see rising buying volume
- or 'accumulation' - which suggests the number of buyers is growing
rather than shrinking. I consider other factors as well, but those two
are the core of this exercise.
Fortunately
I've got access to that kind of data, down to the industry and market cap
level. To keep things simple, however, I'm just going to consider all
market caps by using the S&P 1500 industry indices.
Enough
talk; let's get to it.
In
no particular order, my three key industry picks for the next few months....
1.
Pharmaceuticals
To
a certain extent I'm going to mentally add biotech to my bullish pharmaceutical
outlook, though bear in mind the nearby chart only includes companies specifically
classified as pharmaceutical companies and not biotech companies
(though the lines are blurred more and more every day).
My
only caution regarding biotech is this - Dendreon's recent success with
cancer immunity therapies along with swine flu hysteria may have fostered
more hype than actual promise. I've got a hunch the better biotech stocks
for the remainder of 2009 are going to be the stocks that have remained
off the radar (less hyped) recently.
Anyway,
when the S&P 1500 Pharmaceutical Index made its recent move to 260,
the move carried the chart well past a pretty important resistance line.
However, the buying volume (the green columns at the bottom of the chart)
started to grow progressively taller well before the breakout occurred.
The
market's also not heard much from pharma in a while. It may be time for
these stocks to get taken off the shelf by investors bored with other groups.
2.
IT Consulting and Services
Much
like the pharmaceutical index, the S&P 1500 IT Consulting & Services
Index has been knocking down some major barriers as it's made solid progress
since March's lows.
Though
the same idea basically applies to all the charts I reviewed today, the
consistency
and persistency of the growth in buying volume is how this chart topped
my list. Not that gains have been produced every week, but during the weeks
when gains have been made, the buying volume's been getting stronger.
The selling volume has been tepid.
I know
the term 'IT consulting and services' can mean a lot of different things.
So, if you need some names to get the stock-search juices flowing, think
of companies like Computer Sciences Corp. (CSC), Perot Systems Corp. (PER),
and Syntel Inc. (SYNT)
3.
Home Entertainment Software
I fell
in love with gaming software stocks in April not because of their
massive gains, but because of the slow-and-steady recovery effort
being made on rising-but-tempered volume. (I don't minding jumping on
well-paced trends, but I hate jumping on explosive moves.)
In
early June the uptrend was pressured, but once again the selling volume
was weak. Then last week, the bulls rushed back in after the dip, buying
more of these stocks than in any other week since February's pop.
On
other words, the buyers aren't fair-weather friends here... they
came back to the table for more.
Activision-Blizzard
Inc. (ATVI) and Electronic Arts Inc. (ERTS) are probably two of the first
names that come to mind when you're talking about video game makers. Honestly
though, I think both of those charts are starting to look a little tired.
I'd suggest looking for some of the smaller fish in the gaming software
(multimedia & graphics) pond.
Honorable
Mentions
The
list above wasn't an easy list to make; several groups stood out
as great opportunities.
The
other industries that were also seriously considered - and may end up
being just as strong - include Semiconductors, Industrial Power Producers
and Energy Traders, Electronic Instruments, Healthcare Equipment, and some
Telecom groups (land lines, but not wireless).
I've
got a feeling we'll be looking at these groups in the near future as well,
if not in the newsletter, then in the blog or at our new community
pages.
Takin'
Care of Business
Since
we're low on space, it's a good thing we only have one trading item to
take care of today.
Let's
raise the stop on Harvard Bioscience Inc. (HBIO). Shares have been
soaring since Friday, gaining 53 cents (+15%), and currently trading at
$3.98. This trade is up about 22% for us now... enough to scoot our stop
up to at least break-even levels.