Well, well, well... I'm not one bit surprised the bulls hesitated here. The rally came to a halt yesterday when a couple of the key indices hit technical ceilings, and though the buyers tested the waters of slightly higher highs on Thursday, it's pretty clear traders just aren't ready to commit to a rally.
That's not to say things couldn't change, even as early as tomorrow. It's simply an observation that the rally has yet to get strong enough to actually bet on it.
Sticking with the S&P 500 as our proxy, today's close at 1883.68 and today's high of 1888.59 is pretty much in line with well-established technical ceilings. Until the final hurdle at 1895 is cleared, the issue is still in question, and like I mentioned to you earlier in the week, the market may actually need to go down a little before trying to form its next major bullish leg. The question is, how far down? Anything above the support lines around 1862 would be fine, but any move below that mark could be the beginning of trouble.
Of course, for those of you who are regular readers, none of this is exactly news to you. Neither is my concern that the VIX is way too low to pretend like there's not too much complacency in the market's ether right now. In fact, the VIX inched a little lower on Thursday, and is now testing a major floor at 12.8.
I know I sound like a broken record with my ongoing "the VIX is too low" theory, but I'm telling you, I've seen this too many times before to dismiss it now... it rarely ends pleasantly. The best we can hope for is that the market's dip that pushes the VIX up and off its lows is only a minor, survivable pullback for stocks.
In the meantime, there's really nothing we need to "do" about today. We were all held in limbo as of yesterday, and that didn't change today. Let's see if unemployment gets the party started on Friday.
A New Pick
It's been too long since we've given you guys a trading idea, so we're going to fix that today. No, this new idea isn't a coal stock, though we're still looking at that industry for a new name now that we know the industry - as a whole - is on the mend. It's also not an industrial metal play, though we're scrutinizing that group too following its breakout earlier in the week. Today's pick is a utility stock... AES Corporation (AES).
If the idea seems more than a little familiar, there are two possible reasons why.
The first of those reasons is, we already knew utility stocks are (after months of lagging performance) in a position to make up for lost time and perform very well this summer. In fact, we've shown you a chart of the relative performance of all the major sectors a couple of times in the past couple of weeks, and both times we could visually see how the utility sector was coming on strong while most everything else was struggling. Although those paces were shaken up a little over the past few days, I don't think the bigger trends have been swayed much. Here's an updated look at that very chart.
The other reason AES Corporation may ring a bell is that it was a name we added to the watchlist back on April 10th. We liked the broad bullish undertow at the time, but wanted to see a little more short-term "umph". We got that "umph" on Thursday when AES pushed past a ceiling at $14.62. The gravy on top of the breakout effort is that it came after weeks of consolidation, and was fueled by a convergence of - and then support at - all of its key moving average lines. This compression should end with an explosive move out of the trading range, and that decompression may well have begun today.
That being said regarding the daily chart, the weekly chart of AES Corporation paints another key part of the bullish picture here. This stock is actually working its way out of a long-term funk, and the slingshot effect could offset years' worth of weakness and consolidation. The final line in the sand remains at $15.46 (give or take) but the last several weeks may have given the bulls enough time to fill their tanks, so to speak.
My point is, AES is on the verge, and worth the risk of getting in now. I just don't want to chase anything later on.
For what it's worth, the company's per-share earnings is expected to grow from $1.29 last year to $1.35 this year to $1.43 next year. Sales should be up 12.3% this year, from 2013's $15.89 billion to $17.89 billion for 2014. Next year's top line is expected to reach $18.54... a 3.6% increase. It's not much, but you should know that AES Corporation has a decent knack for topping estimates. And, it's a utility company, so results are fairly consistent. Given the minimal risk here, in addition to the forward-looking P/E of a very palatable 10.3, I see some pretty good upside with AES.
Just so you know, I recognize this isn't a high-reward trading idea. It's also not a high-risk trading idea, and without any more aggressive possibilities on my radar right now, I'll take what the market's giving me rather than try and wrestle with something the market isn't giving me.
Part of this trading lull is due to the calendar, and part of it is just due to the current environment. Whatever the reason, I'll take the slow-boat to a 30% gain right now until something more exciting comes along. That being said...
... after this week's mild bullishness following the upswing from two weeks ago, I have a feeling we're going to finally see some new momentum plays pop up on the stock-scans I run every weekend. This should end the trading-idea dry spell we've been through the past month or so. If we see something we like (coal stock or not), we'll let you know.
If You Don't Like AES...
If you're just not psyched about a utility stock right now, the guys at the site continue to crank out trading possibilities. Take John Udovich's look at supercomputer stock Cray (CRAY) as an example. While it recently issued guidance that could be classified as cautious, there has to be a reason the stock's up 600% over the past five years. If you're following the saga of "big data", John's update is a must-read.
Speaking of sagas, Bryan Murphy started to paint a bigger picture of how the saga of Mannkind (MNKD) might finally wind down now that AFREZZA is approaching its PDUFA - and likely approval - date.
Finally, I loved what James Brumley had to say about Cisco (CSCO) this afternoon, not because I'm a big fan of Cisco, but because of the reason he's liking the company so much now.
Ever heard the term "internet of things"? As you might guess, it's a reference to the interconnectivity of, well, everything... refrigerators, HVAC systems, wallets, medical monitoring devices - you name it. The International Data Corporation predicts by the year 2020, 212 billion 'things' will somehow be connected to the web or some sort of other control network. Point being, the internet of things IS the future, and Cisco is helping to make it happen.
I just don't think Cisco is the very best internet-of-things play out there right now. Not that CSCO is a bad pick, but the guys over at the SmallCap Network Elite Opportunity have in their portfolio what I think is a better name in the budding industry. I can't tell you what it is, of course, but I can tell you how to find out what it is... try the Elite Opportunity free for two weeks. That trial will give you access to the service's newsletter archives, portfolio, everything, including a look at the EO's internet-of-things pick that you may not have uncovered any other way. Here's how to get it, or cut and paste this link: https://www.smallcapnetwork.com/?vmpd_ckstr[click_track]=Newsletter&vmpd_ckstr_redirect=/pages/SCNEO/v1/