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VOLUME
03: ISSUE 05
The Party's
Over??
It's official. There is, apparently,
no reason to buy stocks. This premise is based on the following points:
· There is no good news.
· Valuations are perceived
to be, for the most part, still too high.
· War, Terrorism
· Consumer confidence sucks
· Business confidence (vis-à-vis
Capital spending) sucks
· Markets are at multi-year
lows
· Warren Buffett says to
do nothing.
Do we really believe that Warren
Buffett is doing nothing?
When the markets peaked exactly three
years ago this week, if you had sold everything and bought either Berkshire
Hathaway A (BRK.A) at $41,300 a share or its progeny BRK.B at $1400, you'd
be in fat city. The two are now trading at $68,000 and $2285 a share, respectively.
Mr. Buffett demonstrated that no
matter how ugly the market, there is always somewhere to go. While Berkshire
got pounded during the Internet bubble, Buffett's unique style ultimately
proved profitable. Meanwhile, the rest of us looked for the tech markets
to improve.
You are doing nothing.
Statistically, the main topic of
cocktail conversation these days is which bond or money market fund an
investor is either in or contemplating. Contemplating? With 10-year notes
yielding 3.5 percent, is that really a place you want to be when rates
tick up again? And while there is always a place for money market funds,
should it be the only place? Call me crazy, but hello?--the damage is pretty
much done. The investing environment couldn't be any more morose. It's
not going to turn around tomorrow, but it will turn. Everyone thinks that
the turn will come when the war starts. Maybe, maybe not. The point, frankly,
is moot.
Case in point, Corning (GLW). In
August 2002, there was a volume spike as the shares traded down to $1.50.
The towel was thrown in so definitively on the stock it seemed the end
was nigh. The shares waffled around that level for a couple of months and
then began to move up. Not just some blip-the shares, a scant 4 months
later, now trade at $6. Nortel-another left for the buzzards at 50 cents
in October-trades for over $2. Imclone at $6 last October is now $16. While
it would have taken guts to step up at those levels then, is the environment
better or worse now?
The forest is the trees.
While these big boys may seem like
exceptions to the rule, I would submit that they are indicative of what's
to come. All had capitulated-the proverbial baby thrown out with the bathwater-and
only those with foresight saw the opportunity. The bad news in this market
isn't those caveats listed above-it's that no one sees any opportunities.
Is GE going out of business? Or Peet's Coffee and Tea? Is it reasonable
to forego Intel, Cisco or Apple at these levels for some lame bond fund?
Or eschew the potential of an Index ETF (Exchange traded fund) such as
the QQQ's for the warm bosom of a money market fund with virtually no return?
Here's an interesting tidbit. On
Monday, the percentage of volume to the downside was a whopping 94.8 percent.
In January, there was another day when the downside volume approached 90
percent. Over the last 70 years, an accumulation of six or so of these
types of days within a couple of months tended to indicate a significant
bottom. Even so, investors still seem to be acting more like we're at a
market top than near a bottom. And ultimately, that approach will cost
not only opportunity, but money.
A bit of smoke up your tailpipe.
Here at the Small Cap Digest, we're
quite excited about what's unfolding. We're looking for more nifty companies
to highlight and strategies to help you through the unnecessarily complex
task of getting the best prices for your trades.
We appreciate your emails. Unlike
most investors, we have found that those who populate the small cap world
tend to be the most realistic when it comes to the vicissitudes of the
marketplace.
Further, if you have any ideas
of companies we should look at or ideas for columns-send them on in
by contacting: editor@smallcapnetwork.com
After all, we're all in this together.
Even Warren Buffett.
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