News Details – Smallcapnetwork
Lifeway Foods (LWAY) is About to Croak
/

February 2, 2024

/

PDT

Good Friday afternoon, friends and fellow traders, and welcome to the weekend. And, we're certainly starting the weekend out on the right foot - our portfolio is up rather convincingly today, even if not every trade is chipping in. We do have a little bit of activity to take care of today. First, let's raise the stop-loss on the CTI Biopharma (CTIC) long trade to $0.46. We know that's not a big move, but in that CTIC is priced around $0.50, that's relatively significant. Either way, we've got a 20% gain to protect there, and we want to protect it as aggressively as possible without shortchanging ourselves. For a while it looked like the weight of the big gap-making surge was going to be a problem, but the buyers are starting to trickle back in. We also want to do some cleanup/cleanout work before we get to the weekend (as well as to make some room for a new trade today as well as for early next week). Let's go ahead and cover the short trade on Invatae (NVTA) at the market, and let's cover the short position in Centrus Energy (LEU). We were hoping Centrus shares would break under their 20-day moving average line, which would have inspired another leg of selling. That didn't happen though. It looks like the bulls have drawn a line in the sand. We don't have to fight that fight. We'll take our 8% gain and go home with it. Not bad for a couple days worth of work. Those two exits actually leave is a little more net-bullish overall than we'd like to be in the current market environment. So, though we just made a point of paring back on our trade count, we do want to add one new short position today... Lifeway Foods (LWAY). Lifeway Foods has been on our bearish watchlist for a while. We watched it peel back from a strong surge October and November, and though it broke below the 200-day moving average line (green) last week, the volume spike said there was a strong chance of a pivot out of a downtrend and back into an uptrend. Take a look at what's happened in the meantime though, or more specifically, a look at what hasn't happened. LWAY hasn't managed to move back above the 200-day line, though it's tested it several times. Odds are good that frustrated investors are going to throw in the towel sooner or later (and probably sooner), creating a meltdown at a pace not unlike the one we saw in early November. As for the market, yeah, it's up today, but we continue to have concerns. Chief among those concerns is how much of a struggle it's become to make and keep meaningful new highs. Take a look at the chart of the S&P 500 below. We're up for a sixth day in a row, but since Wednesday's pop the bulls have been hesitant. We're seeing new highs hit, but the market's not holding on to those gains. The indices are rolling back from their highs. The VIX is also either unwilling or unable -- or both -- to move lower. The biggest red flag of all, however, is that there are actually more losers than winners (more decliners than advancers) today, and there's more selling volume than there is buying volume. It's a clue that just a handful of stocks are making it look like the broad market is healthy here. Again though, until the S&P 500 actually makes a turn lower, we can't be presumptuous about when the rally will run out of gas. We continue to focus on individual stocks trades, where we have a little more clarity. Short-term bullish watchlist: CAS Medical Systems (CASM), Covisint (COVS), Mirna Therapeutics (MIRN), Barnwell Industries (BRN), Gigamedia (GIGM), Command Security (MOC), Mitcham Industries (MIND), Bonanza Creek Energy (BCEI), EnerJex Resources (ENRJ), CPI Aerostructures (CVU), Transgenomic (TBIO), Ampio Pharmaceuticals (AMPE), Cartesian (CRTN), Crossroads Systems (CRDS), Rex Energy (REXX), Lincoln Educational Services (LINC), Ignite Restaurant Group (IRG), Dataram (DRAM), Sunshine Heart (SSH), Iao Kun Group Holding Company Limited (IKGH), Gordmans Stores (GMAN), China Cord Blood (CO), Kingtone Wirelessinfo Solution Holding Ltd. (KONE), Triangle Petroleum (TPLM), Pacific Drilling (PACD), Vericel (VCEL), IsoRay (ISR), Short-term bearish watchlist: RELM Wireless (RWC), Access National (ANCX), Servotronics (SVT), Timberland Bancorp (TSBK), Volt Info Sciences (VISI), Newstar Financial (NEWS), Aware (AWRE), Cyren (CYRN). Long-term investment watchlist: CDW Corp. (CDW), Columbus McKennon (CMCO), AmTrust Financial Services (AFSI), Matrix Service Company (MTRX), Information Services Group (III), LyondellBasell (LYB), National-Oilwell (NOV), United Rentals (URI), ConocoPhillips (COP), BNC Bancorp (BNCN), Anixter Intl. (AXE), The Cheesecake Factory (CAKE), Chubb (CB), Sprott Focus Trust (FUND), Radian Group (RDN), Transocean Partners (RIGP), Ooma (OOMA).