Yes, we finally got an earnings update from Standard & Poor's that we can glean some data from and give you a meaningful earnings season update. So, let's just dive in. First and foremost, with about 28% of the S&P 500's companies having reported calendar Q2's numbers, profits are rolling in a little better than first expected. As of yesterday, the S&P 500 is on pace to earn $26.54 for the second quarter, up from the earlier forecast of $26.40. As a reminder, the index earned $25.43 in the same quarter a year earlier, so we're on track to grow earnings around 4.3%. Of the 104 S&P 500 constituents that have posted last quarter's results, 69 (66.3%) have topped estimates, 27 (26.0%) missed estimates, and 8 (7.7%) came in on target. That's a little worse than the norm, though not a red flag just yet. While a fourth of the entire sample size is a pretty good representation of the entire sample (the S&P 500), I don't know that I'd etch anything in stone just yet. It's not really until we get 60% of the market's data in that the earnings picture is solidified. Still, we can get a rough idea of how things are going, and so far, so good. As I mentioned to you a few weeks ago, last quarter's results aren't really the big story as far as I'm concerned. I'm more interested in the outlooks for Q3 and Q4, and even 2014. You may recall I was griping about the fact that analysts were looking for 15% year-over-year earnings growth in Q3, and a whopping 26.7% year-over-year earnings growth rate for Q4. There's nothing wrong with big double-digit growth. But, if the market can't possibly reach those targets, not only will investors be disappointed, they'll sell stocks in protest; big targets leave the market vulnerable. Yeah, well, not only were the Q3 and Q4 outlooks not dialed back, they were actually pushed a little higher! Now the pros are looking for a 15.2% and 26.9% year over year increase, respectively. While the last half of 2012 wasn't stellar (earnings were actually down just a bit), it wasn't like the economy was getting crushed then. Forecasters are just looking for some unusually large increases in the second half of 2013. Never even mind the fact that these same pros are projecting a 12.6% increase in earnings for 2014. Maybe I'm just being a pessimist, but I still don't see what's going to drive that kind of growth... especially when the second quarter GDP growth outlook for the United States is right around (an anemic) 1.0%. They're supposed to get better after that, but they were "supposed to be better" for Q2 several months ago too. Sorry to get worked up about it. I've just seen irrational optimism end up punishing investors before, and I don't want any of you guys to be blindsided. A New Name on the Leaderboard For those of you who are golf fans, you'll know Angel Cabrera - a name you don't hear too often in the world of golf, but should - is on top of the British Open Leaderboard (or was at publishing time anyway), with American Zach Johnson not far behind. Did you know that the best-known golf tournament's leaderboard isn't the only one you may be interested in though? The SmallCap Network website has a leaderboard of great traders, and there's a new name on out list too. Congratulations go out to Shawn Murphy, who worked his way into a top-five spot on the one-month leaderboard. He got there the same way you can get there... by making some great stock picks using the SCN's portfolio and stock-rating tools. What I really like about Shawn's success is that it's probably the most replicatable [which I know isn't a real world, but just hang with me here for a second] portfolio I've seen from traders using the site as a way to keep track of their picks. Not to take anything way from the folks who are consistently the biggest winners, but a bunch of their success has stemmed from one or two great picks of penny stocks that others may not have been able to follow or mirror. Most of Shawn's picks are larger companies, and trade above the $5.00 level. He also holds most of them for several days, at least, making it easy to follow his lead if you wanted to. In fact, he's still got a bunch of the initial picks he's made as 'live' in the portfolio. He also seems to keep new ideas flowing. If you'd like to see your name in the proverbial limelight, you can - just get to picking. We've mentioned to you guys before that it may even turn into some kind of paycheck for you in the future. Though we're still not entirely sure ourselves what that's ultimately going to look like, we do know the people with the most established and replicatable [again, I know it's not really a word] portfolios are probably going to get the first shot at that opportunity. In the meantime, if you're looking for fresh trading ideas, Shawn Murphy is your guy. OK, that's it for today. We didn't take a look at the broad market's technicals, largely because there wasn't much point in doing so. The bullish breakout from yesterday is still intact. In fact, the S&P 500 closed above the key 1687 level again today. Between the two back-to-back bullish days, there's not a lot of new stuff to dissect -the trend is bullish... end of story. I'm still worried about just how low the VIX is (it's rare for the stock market to rally when complacency is this strong), but we can't make assumptions here about when and how the tide will finally turn. Besides, with today being an option expiration day, we can barely trust the market's action, and we can't trust the VIX's action at all. We'll take a more detailed look on Monday, when option expiration is no longer weighing in. The coming week is a biggie on the real estate front. We'll get existing home sales on Monday, the FHFA Housing Price Index on Tuesday, and new home sales on Wednesday. That should round out the real estate picture we started to paint on Thursday. As for earnings, there's a whole slew of 'em on the way next week... more than I can give you a heads-up on. We'll point out any that are worth a closer look when the time comes. Until then, have a great weekend, and try your best to stay cool. It looks like it's hot everywhere.