News Details – Smallcapnetwork
Shorts Lose - Markets Roar
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February 2, 2024

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PDT

Before we get into today's edition, we owe Ben Bernanke an apology. We've continued to question and criticize his monetary policies, yet we're absolutely ecstatic when the markets perceive his actions in a way that puts profits in our pockets. Never look a gift horse in the mouth, right? We're guilty as charged. In his defense, he's got one tough job and I for one couldn't fathom the constant scrutiny he's under at every turn. Regardless of whether or not you or I agree with his economic philosophies, you've got to admit (after yesterday's announcement), this guy has some serious convictions for doing what he believes is right toward stimulating job growth and ensuring borrowing remains on the cheap. Advertisement Is that small cap really a stock to watch? Free Analysis. Is that small cap stock the real deal or a bust waiting to happen? Enter the stock symbol or company name for a free, instant stock analysis. Know what direction the stock is moving and how strong the trend is. Access This Free Stock Analysis Advertisement His moves were unprecedented. Yesterday, our fearless Fed exercised his conviction by committing to pump $40 billion into the U.S. economy each month until it saw a sustained upturn in the weak jobs market. The central bank's decision to tie its bond buying directly to economic conditions was a huge bet and a very speculative move to help drive U.S. unemployment lower. Will it pay off? Who knows. What we do know is, regardless of all of the monetary stimulus we've seen over the last couple of years, job growth has waned. However, maybe it could have been a lot worse, we'll never know. We got an interesting email from one of our readers this morning who simply said, "Austerity measures have never taken a government out of a recession (or depression)... just the opposite, in fact". Good point and fair enough. With that being said, there's really no reason to get into the potential repercussions of what the Fed has decided to do, what's been done is done. And, the Fed made it pretty clear what he's planning to do going forward. For now, the markets have the wind at their backs and that's what we care about most. More importantly, corporate earnings continue to perform and charts continue to look good, which at the end of the day is what we'll always believe drives the price of stocks. Now that all of the major indexes have broken out, we'll have a look at where this market may want to go in the days and weeks ahead. A week ago yesterday was a pivotal day for the markets. It was also the day we switched our short-term stance to one of "buying the dips and selling the rips". That has proved very successful, especially with yesterday's parabolic move to the upside following some backing and filling earlier in the week. If you jumped in on the pullback earlier this week, congrats. You've likely made some excellent profits. However, you may want to consider taking some of those profits off the table now or early next week. More on that below. We also mentioned that if the major indexes found follow through buying interest of the heels of last Thursday's one day rally, that would suggest this market would want to go higher. We got confirmation yesterday and we're seeing the results of it today. There was a lot of bets being made by short sellers and naysayers suggesting the market had seen its better days for a while. They couldn't have been more wrong. What we saw with yesterday's strong move to the upside, along with today's follow through, is a pretty fierce short covering that may likely last going into early next week, before the major indexes decide to take another short breather. You know we're huge fans of Fibonacci retracement and expansion levels, so I've included a couple of charts here for your review today. The first chart here is a weekly chart of the S&P. I've also included some expansion levels here, which point to where a logical profit objective exists on a bit of a longer-term scenario for the S&P. If you believe in Elliot Waves, the argument becomes even stronger. Drawing expansion levels from last year's fall low to the high from earlier this year and again off the low from the summer, the 1482 level on the S&P suggests that might be a very logical profit taking level for investors and funds who have been long this market ever since last year. Don't get this confused with a top. We're simply saying, 1482 may be a level to take profits, sit back and wait for some consolidation and possibly position yourself at a better entry for another nice new leg up. We're not far from there now, so it would make sense that the S&P may want to take a breather there for a few reasons. First, third quarter earnings are around the corner. Second, maybe a lot of the recent hysteria regarding the Fed's actions yesterday have been priced into the market. And lastly, we're getting closer and closer to the election. Remember, it's our belief that although on the surface, it appears the Fed's actions are what has taken the market up this week, the longer-term charts have been bullishly intact for quite some time now. Fed or no Fed, the major indexes were in a perfect position to move higher. The second chart I've included here is a daily chart of the NDX. I've included the same Fib expansion levels here, albeit from different points than that of the S&P's chart. The expansion levels here have been drawn from the September low, to last week's high and back off from this week's low. What the daily chart of the NDX is telling us here is profits are being taken right now at a very logical profit level. Keep in mind this is a very short-term outlook suggesting traders take profits around current levels. With options expiring next Friday, there's a decent possibility we may see a little pull back at some point next week, which may prove a nice entry to the long side for another excellent trade. The big picture has the NDX and the NASDAQ Composite running into new multi- year high territory with literally no long-term ceiling in the foreseeable future. If I told you where the NDX and the COMP could potentially go, you probably wouldn't believe me. It's crazy. The S&P and the DOW both on the other hand, aren't far from their 2007 highs, which is where the markets began their two year implosion before getting its act together for a rally that's lasted a little less than three years now. I would imagine we're going to test those levels at some point here down the road, so from a longer-term chart perspective, we've got every reason to believe this market is going to go a lot higher before it's all said and done. That's good for all of us. While everyone else tries to figure out when most other investment vehicles are going to start producing decent returns, the equity markets right now are telling you and I this is the place to be. What an excellent way to close out the week. Have a great weekend and don't spend it all in one place.