Hmmmm. Not exactly a rousing follow-through on yesterday's post-Fed party. But, I can't say I'm surprised. Like we told you in yesterday's newsletter, there was something a little odd about how exaggerated the bullish reaction was when we learned the Federal Reserve wasn't going to taper its QE efforts anytime soon. Today it's almost as if Wednesday's news was completely irrelevant (and maybe it was irrelevant). Or maybe Wednesday's rally was just the proverbial last hurrah we described to you yesterday. It's still a little too soon to say for sure. I like to see confirmations of reversals before I get on board, and today's action didn't confirm anything - the dust was still settling from Wednesday's surge over the course of Thursday's trading. As overbought as stocks still are right now, however, that vulnerability is certainly on the table. So now what? We'll give the market a pass for today. The major indices jumped 1.2% yesterday, and deserved to take a breather Thursday. Heck, as of yesterday stocks were up a stunning 6.0% in just fifteen trading days, which is huge for that timeframe; a pause could be expected today. We won't be as generous tomorrow, however. If we get a lower close - and especially if we get a close under today's low - we're going to go ahead and predict a more substantial pullback... maybe something back to the 1675 area for the S&P 500, or the 3695 level for the NASDAQ Composite. For what it's worth, the volatility indices continued to find support at their lower Bollinger band lines, which indirectly says traders have reached their maximum level of optimism and are now starting to play defense. We can see this idea most clearly on a chart of the NASDAQ Composite, with the NASDAQ Volatility Index (VXN). The VXN tested its lower band line again today, and again pushed up and off of it. For the same reason we need to see a confirming bearish move from the market before jumping to conclusions, we'd like to see the VXN make a solid upward move above its 100-day moving average line (gray) before saying the market's back in a bearish mode. Odds are we'll get both of these confirming clues on the same day, but today clearly wasn't the day. So, for the time being we're still mentally on the sidelines. Tomorrow's going to be an important day. Since we're on hold anyway and have the time and space to do it today, we need to give you a quick update on all of the newsletter's open ideas. We're shedding one of them, and another one of them's being put on notice. Portfolio Update Let's get the trading business out of the way first - we're locking in a 12% gain on our Xerox (XRX) trade. It's not a lot, but for a fairly stodgy large cap and a position that's only been on our plate since June 11th (just a little over two months), that's not bad. You might recall the rationale for taking on Xerox in the first place was how it looked like it was a reliable bullish mover headed into what would likely be a choppy Q3. Well, Q3's been choppy, and Xerox was the reliable mover we needed it to be, even if it didn't soar. Heading into the fourth quarter, however, we're thinking we could find some better uses for that capital. The name that's still just barely in the portfolio is Kearny Financial (KRNY). This is the New Jersey-based S&L we stepped into back on August 19th... which had to be the most unfortunately-timed trade I've put out there in a long while. It began falling (for no real reason) later in the month, and didn't stop until September 6th. Though it's stabilized since then, and even perked up a little last week, I was close to pulling the plug then. As of yesterday though, the bulls have turned up the heat just enough for me to give it a bit more time. It's still hanging by a thread, but at this point we're willing to give it the benefit of the doubt. That leaves us with Northwest Pipe (NWPX), Manitex International (MNTX), and Global Indemnity plc (GBLI). Though none have been red hot, I'm pleased with all of them. Global Indemnity plc got off to a slow start after we picked it back on September 3rd. We thought it was going to find support at its 100-day moving average line (gray) around then, and put together a rebound there. As it turns out though, GBLI needed to spend a few days under the 50-day moving average line to get the bulls interested again. But make no mistake - the bulls ARE now interested again. The stock popped back above all of its key moving averages today, and is still going strong. We're now up about 4% in just two weeks, which is plenty of profit cushion for us to work with. Manitex shares have been on a roll recently too, not just escaping what would have been a selling avalanche under the 10.00 level, but actually pushing off that line late last month to put us back in the black from our August 8th entry. There's not been any real news here either - the stock's been doing this all on its own. I'm not going to be able to really sleep at night, however, until MNTX clears the technical ceiling around $12.00. Finally, though Northwest Pipe may not look like much with just a quick glance at its chart, I'm telling you, this stock is an all-or-nothing proposition. It can drift sideways for a few weeks, and then out of nowhere burst into a bullish mode. Then it repeats the cycle. We've been in sideways (well, slightly bullish) mode since early August, but I've got a feeling we're close to a breakout move. There's a ton of consolidation between $28.50 and $30.20, and once that ceiling at $30.20 finally cracks, look out above. There's been no real news from or about Northwest Pipe lately either. And don't forget we're still mulling new positions in Commercial Metals (CMC) - which is actually a do-over of a trade we exited a few weeks ago - and Aegion (AEGN), which is the parent company of the very cool Insituform pipe repair outfit. We're still not ready to pull either of those triggers, however. With the close-out of the Xerox position, that leaves us with four open ideas. I was hoping I'd have a new one for you to replace the Xerox trade, but there's nothing popping up in my scans right now that looks all that great to me. The guys over at the SmallCap Network Elite Opportunity found what looks like an awesome stock pick today, though. I can't tell you what stock they picked, of course. That wouldn't be fair to current SCN EO subscribers. I can show you a chart of this pick, however, which looks about as healthy as any chart I've seen in a long time. The breakout from the wedge pattern is clear, but after a multi-year buildup period, there's plenty more bullishness to play out now that the ball is rolling. And yes, I do think we'll see that upside materialize. The volume is starting to swell too, confirming the buyers are starting to pile in. Thing is, the only thing the chart's doing is reflecting the company's improving fundamentals. Again though, with several years worth of ground to make up, this chart could keep rolling higher for weeks... if not months. There is a way for you to learn what the mystery ticker is, even if you're not yet a SmallCap Network Elite Opportunity subscriber - you can still get a free two-week test drive to the service. That trial period gives you everything regular subscribers get, including access to the archives. This new pick alone is worth using the test drive offer, and if you're looking for a new idea or two, the SCN EO is the way to go right now - I don't have anything on my watchlist I can see us getting into within the next few days. Here's how to get the free trial. Or, copy and paste the following link in your browser: http://www.smallcapnetwork.com/?vmpd_ckstr[click_track]=SCN+Newsletter&vmpd_ckstr_redirect=/pages/SCNEO/v1/