Good Thursday morning one and all. As promised in Wednesday's edition of the newsletter, today we've got a new trading idea for you from the marijuana space. Before we get to it though, we want to set the stage just a bit.
Most of the time, stocks are ultimately driven higher or lower by an economic cycle. Every now and then though, there's a secular trend which overrides any cyclical trend, dishing out rewards to people who have the foresight to spot such trends - and the guts to act on them - regardless of the economic environment
We've seen plenty of them before. In fact, we've even talked about them before here in the newsletter. Water infrastructure is one of the megatrends we've identified as something to watch for the long haul, and the Elite Opportunity service has pegged the Internet-of-Things as a key long-term theme-based opportunity to plug into. Well, we're naming marijuana to our list of secular trends worth jumping on and sticking with, and we've got a specific name in mind as one of the most brilliant ways to play it.
That name? Namaste Technologies (OTCMKTS:NXTTF, CNSX:N), which trades on the United States' OTC exchange as well as the Canadian Securities Exchange.
There are two ways to tell the Namaste story... the long version and the short version. In the interest of time and brevity we'll stick with the short version here, but if you want the longer, detailed view, the SCN research report has the whole soup-to-nuts look.
In short, Namaste Technologies sells electronic vaporizers, which are more commonly categorized as electronic cigarettes (or e-cigs). Though initially intended as a means of avoiding tobacco smoke without giving up nicotine, it was only a matter of time before the idea was adapted and new technologies were developed to vaporize whatever it is people choose to smoke. Marijuana was an obvious good-fit candidate for the idea, and Namaste Technologies is simply capitalizing on that growing opportunity. The end result: Namaste now operates more than 30 e-commerce retail stores (with monthly traffic of over 550,000 visitors) in 20 countries targeting both medical and recreational users.
There are a couple things that really make NXTTF -- or N, for those of you in Canada -- different from the rest of the stocks in the marijuana space though.
Perhaps first and foremost, unlike so many other companies that have jumped into the fray in the wake of marijuana's expanding web of legalization, Namaste is turning a real product into real revenue right now, and has real profits in sight. The company is presently driving revenue at an annualized pace of $10 million. How did it get there? Primarily by aggregating a few similar businesses (mostly vaporizer businesses) and cultivating synergies between them.
The most important of these deals is last month's purchase of URT1. Earlier in the year it bought VaporSeller. In the meantime it's continued to operate its original outfit called Namaste Vapes.
Bringing all these fragmented companies together under one roof just makes good sense. They can do more together by supporting one another, and will collectively become more profitable.
The other distinguishing factor which makes NXTTF stand out from all other marijuana players -- and we say this with all due respect to those other marijuana startups -- is that it's clear the people running Namaste Technologies have some business acumen and aren't just treating it like a hobby.
Let's call a spade a spade. When you look at most marijuana-related websites and dig deeper into their operations, all too often you see an "if we build it they will come" philosophy and mere hopes that someone's favorite pastime can be converted into a full-fledged business... even though that purveyor may know nothing about business. Not Namaste Technologies. When you look Namaste Technologies' website and Namaste Technologies' investor materials it looks more like something you'd expect to see from a Fortune 500 company. As you dig even deeper, it becomes clear the management team completely understands its risks, understands who its customers are, and understands how to grow the business.
The evidence? This slide (below) from the company's July investor presentation, for one. It's the first time we've seen such a keen and precise understanding of a company's market size, and how those products are sold. Thing is, this is the kind of deep understanding Namaste has about every aspect of its business.
Better still, Namaste even knows the traffic-conversion rates and average order size for every website it operates. That's the first step in knowing how to improve those numbers.
It's this kind of business-oriented thinking that makes us believers in the other pieces of the company's growth plan. Namely, based on its current organic growth trends and acquisition trends, Namaste Technologies was able to piece together this gross profits and gross-margin percent outlook.
And that may be the most telling set of details for NXTTF... at some point in the foreseeable future it could be turning a profit on $20 million or so worth of annual sales, yet its current market cap is only $13.1 million.
The usual risks and caveats apply to NXTTF, of course. Those are, never allocate more to one trade than you can afford to lose, and use entry limits and then stops to protect yourself on the way in and then once you're in. You ladies and gents have already seen several cases where marijuana stocks really fly though, with many of them on lesser prospects than Namaste has. For that matter, we'd say Namaste Technologies may be one of the smartest marijuana plays out there right now. We liken it to the people who actually made the most (and most reliable) money in the Gold Rush of 1849... the people who sold pickaxes and shovels to the miners.
With all of that being said, we'd be amiss if we didn't acknowledge the 800 pound gorilla in the room that just turned the heat up on this trade's potential. As part of Tuesday's nationwide voting, marijuana won big in eight of the nine states where it appeared on the ballot.
The specifics: In four of the five states where recreational marijuana was put to a vote, the measure passed. In all four states where medical marijuana was on the ballot, it passed. Now marijuana is legal for one use or another in more than half of this nation's states, more or less in line with the fact that 57% of U.S. adults now support nationwide legalization. If that does indeed happen, obviously those users are going to need some way to smoke it. Namaste Technologies is setting itself up to be the go-to supplier.
And it's only a matter of time before an overwhelming majority of the United States allows it. That's why Wells Fargo thinks legalized marijuana is going to be a $22 billion business by the year 2022.