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VOLUME
03: ISSUE 31
Itinerant
Market Musings
There's
a bunch of topics to cover this week. First and foremost, whither the NASDAQ
now that it's roiling around at the high end of the trading range we laid
out in March?
Just about everyone and their dog
is looking for a pullback now that the markets have run. With the NASDAQ
at 1668-- up more than 400 points or 32 percent-- since we published on
March
12, 2003, we would agree that some consolidation is called for.
What we don't see is a massive drop.
A pullback to the mid-1500's is likely warranted. Then, as long as that's
not violated, the next move should be to the 1725 level. Pundits and others
of their ilk seem to think that this is merely a rally in a bear market.
They don't have me convinced. They were late to the party and have their
own personal and corporate agendas. I've found over the years that pundits,
like economists, are rarely right.
Perky
is Good
Let's see...which stocks look perky?
White Electronics (NASDAQ:
WEDC) finally broke $10, running from $7.25 since our profile in
January. The company filed a registration for a public offering of 3.75
million shares of stock-2.2 million new shares and 1.5 million by shareholders.
I don't believe a sale price has been published as yet nor a definitive
timetable. No matter, as the announcement, made in early June, only marginally
interrupted the shares' rise.
White's shares sold off about $1
for a couple of days and then reversed course to break $10 last week. Last
earnings estimate seen was 47 cents for this year and 56 cents for fiscal
2004. That represents a future price/earnings ratio of 22 times and 18
times respectively. Not outrageous, but it appears the easy money's been
made and now further progress will depend on the company's ability to execute.
Not that it has had any problems so far, but the last time it was at this
level was October 2002. We'd like to see it move smartly through the old
high of $10.59. If you've owned it for six months and enjoyed a good portion
of that 40 percent rise, selling some would be prudent. You'll likely get
a chance to replace the number of shares sold if the market eases somewhere
in here.
In
the "they always move further than you think they will" department is biotech
CEL-SCI (AMEX: CVM).
We saw the shares up at $1 on June 3 and suggested-after the market close
that day-- that folks who had followed us on this one lighten up some more
around this level. The shares shot up to $1.30 on June 4th and traded around
that level for the next couple of days. The shares have since sold off
back to 95 cents and volume has slowed somewhat. The flurry of activity
between April and today, Wednesday, has seen the float of roughly 50 million
shares change hands. Some very large positions were bought and sold and,
needless to say, the run up to nearly $1.40 from 20 cents in a scant few
months was unsustainable.
Monday, CEL-SCI released details
of acceptance of an article in a peer review journal dealing with data
from a herpes simplex animal study, further evidencing the biotech's progress
in the immunology based therapy arena. As noted in previous pieces, CVM
had promised a number of peer reviews in the coming months and this one
will likely be the first of many.
A new era for biotech?
Cel-SCI's shares appear to be consolidating
around the $1 level pending more news and the potential FDA approval of
Phase III trials for CVM's head and neck cancer therapy Multikine. As well,
the entire biotech sector is taking a breather after an impressive run
over the last 3 months-up roughly 50 percent in that time period. Though
CVM has run up quite nicely, recent events might prompt those with a penchant
for interesting speculative situations to consider owning some. While the
shares could move lower-CEL-SCI is still speculative and volatile after
all-it promises to be an interesting ride. We have also suggested that
anyone who owns some big pharma or biotech that has run nicely might want
to take a portion of that position's profit and switch to CEL-SCI. Patience
in all things is a virtue. So, too, for CVM. The promise of immunology
based drugs and therapies could well be among the most exciting future
developments within a biotech sector that remains at the forefront of investor
interest.
Help me, please.
When CVM was at 20 cents, no one
wanted it. That situation may well be repeated at engineering knowledge
company ThinkPath (OTCBB:
THTHF). The size of the company's float, which approaches 180 million
shares, is a significant difference. Also, as we have noted, ThinkPath's
convertible debenture holders have returned with their 'sell at any price'
mentality. While we thought this would be over by now, the brief respite
in selling pressure a few weeks ago allowed the shares to double from .005
cents to almost a full cent.
One
has to speak in relative terms regarding ThinkPath's share price given
the large float. It just doesn't make sense for a company that is cash
flow positive, aggressively cutting costs and landing new contracts to
trade at a market cap of between $500,000 and $750,000. Did I mention it
has annual revenues of around $20-$25 million? And its relationship with
Swiss engineering giant ABB Group has already yielded new business for
THTHF. Even if the shares moved to 2 cents short term-still ridiculously
low relative to revenues and prospects-an investor would realize a quadruple
against a current investment at .00045 cents.
What am I missing here with ThinkPath?
I'm sure someone will tell me. I'd really like to know.
Email me here: editor@smallcapnetwork.com
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