Good Monday afternoon/evening, everybody, and welcome back from the weekend.
You know, while earnings season may have officially began last week when Alcoa (AA) got the ball rolling, for all intents and purposes I think the party starts on Tuesday. That's when JP Morgan (JPM) and Wells Fargo (WFC) will post last quarter's results, followed by Intel (INTC) after the closing bell rings tomorrow. Between the three I think we'll get a pretty good glimpse of what's to come - a glimpse Alcoa just couldn't give us. See, Alcoa is largely at the mercies of the always-wacky commodity market. Intel, JP Morgan, and Wells Fargo are mostly driven by economic conditions.
In case you missed it, Bryan Murphy gave us a thorough preview of what to expect from the two big banks, and how last quarter's top and bottom lines fit into the bigger-picture trend on both fronts. If you want a starting point, that's where to go.
John Monroe's look at JPM and WFC picked up where Murphy's left off, explaining what investors may want to do or not do with the two stocks based on their current technical conditions and what their respective momentum meant for each.
I can't give you everything John Monroe passed along to Elite Opportunity members about JP Morgan and Wells Fargo to members in the Elite Opportunity newsletter today, but I can give you a small taste of what he's thinking about WFC. He explained:
"We made it pretty clear back when we launched SCN EO in January of 2013 Wells Fargo (WFC) would be the better bank play over the next few years by suggesting the idea on a long-term basis to early Members of our service at just over $34 per share. The stock hasn't disappointed by providing roughly a 58% return since. Not too shabby. Now, with the stock trading just north of $54 per share, its monthly chart continues to suggest the possibility of further upside ahead. I've included the chart below to show you what we're referring to here.
As you can see, every time the stock has found its way back to the [details removed by editor] over the last several years, it finds a base and continues to work its way higher. When you consider this type of activity has gone on for years now..."
Well, I don't want to give away all of John's tools and tricks, but as you may be able to guess, that blue moving average line has been playing a major role in the stock's recent success. John has a good handle on where it's pointing the stock from here too, and what impact tomorrow morning's earnings report could have on the bigger trend.
He also served up the same analysis for JPM and INTC, though we can't include those looks here. John even went on to point out which of the two banks is his favorite right now, and I have to say, I agree.
I guess that's the one thing about the Elite Opportunity I don't point out enough... John's almost always got an opinion or two for readers, even on stocks that aren't in the portfolio or suggested as short-term trades. And for the stocks that ARE open trades, the Elite Opportunity is constantly updating those names.
Bottom line? One of the key differences between the Elite Opportunity newsletter and the newsletter you're reading now is, the EO is frequently actionable, with crystal clear ideas and trading parameters. We just don't get a chance to make those kinds of picks here in the end-of-day publication. So, if you're looking for more action, here's where to get it. Or, cut and paste this link: https://www.smallcapnetwork.com/pages/SCNEO/v1/
There's even a 30-day money-back guarantee, so there's no risk to take a test drive of the Elite Opportunity.
From the Site
As usual, the SCN site's gang of regular contributors gave investors plenty to chew on today. Among the best of the best were:
Chris Vermeulen gave us some insightful thoughts in today's "True Investments VS Speculative in the Gold and Oil Commodities." It's an interesting read, in that he talks about a way to monetize an asset (gold, in this case) that's usually incapable of being little more than a speculation.
Bryan Murphy wasn't the only regular contributor to serve up an earnings preview today. John Udovich gave us a quick look at what's apt to be on tap for Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), comparing the chipmaker to NVIDIA (NVDA) and the aforementioned Intel.
Finally, James Brumley has a hunch about Arena Pharmaceuticals (ARNA) that actually sounds like some pretty solid reasoning. Like he said, it's all about risk and reward. Though the risk is still significant, the reward justifies it this time around.
Do you have an investment idea or an opinion you'd like to share? Write it up and post it at the site. If it's got enough value for all our readers, we may just feature it here in the newsletter.
Right on Cue
In the grand scheme of things, no one should be truly surprised the budding rally was stopped cold today before it ever got a chance to get going. The last two rally efforts faded the same way, so why should this one be any different? Thing is, even with the slight rollover, each day the market is open tells us a little more about where it's likely to headed. Today's action was no different. In fact, today's action may have been quite pivotal.
Giving credit where it's due, it was today's Elite Opportunity that pointed out the wedge pattern developing for most of the market's major indices. Like John explained, we've seen a string of higher lows supported by a rising floor, and we've seen a string of lower highs spurred by a falling resistance line. In fact - and this is telling - today's weakness seems to have been spurred by a bump into that falling resistance line. Take a look.
Frankly, it's all right on cue.... which is the scary part about the whole thing. The last time we got this cue, the S&P 500 ended up testing the lower edge of the wedge pattern again.
Fanning the bearish flames (as I feared at the end of last week) is a VIX that bumped into a horizontal floor around 12.7 and bounced right off of it.
One day does not make a trend, but all trends start with one day's action.
There's nothing you or I need to do after today's decided rollover, other than be aware it's happening and where things could go from here. Heck, it's still possible the bulls could decide Tuesday morning's news is good enough to send the S&P 500 above the ceiling developing at 2105-ish. If it does, look out above. I'm just saying we need to be prepared for both possibilities, as we're now at the inflection point.
I like the way John Monroe expressed it in today's Elite Opportunity newsletter, saying:
"Assuming this pattern continues, it will come to a single point, whereby the next big move will likely define the markets for at least a good while... Don't think for one second the major indices haven't put themselves, once again, in a perfect either or scenario."
If you'd like to get John's specific outlooks and ongoing analysis of the broad market - along with stock picks - here's how. Or, cut and paste this link: https://www.smallcapnetwork.com/pages/SCNEO/v1/
Oh, and a little teaser for something we'll likely take a closer look at later in the week - the ongoing rebound effort from crude oil. Here's an updated version of the chart we had for you a few days ago. The ceiling around $54.70 is under a growing amount of pressure. Things are getting real interesting on this front.