And another big day to the upside for stocks. There's no slowing a freight train until the freight train decides it's going to slow. That's been the theme all along with the S&P 500 making another new all-time high today.
Can it get past 2,500? Anything is possible these days, as many investors continue to sit on the sidelines in awe. Just goes to show the buy and hold mentality is one worth exercising in a long standing bull market. Sure, it's going to end at some point, but anyone who says they know when it's going to end probably needs to have their head examined.
I'm not referring to some sort of 5 - 10 percent correction, I'm referring to a true end to this eight year bull market. There's no economic shoe dropping, no real significant change in monetary policy, and no substantive change in earnings guidance either. So, what's really going to take these markets down? It seems nothing yet.
I just hope you've all been in the right stocks with the majority of your portfolios, because to be perfectly honest not all stocks have done well over the last few years. As someone said earlier today, it's getting to be more and more of a stock picking game these days.
To add to the complexity of it all, the major averages - over the last several years - have also had a habit of selling off at the most inopportune times. In other words, they take themselves down after everyone thinks they can do no wrong. Then, the come roaring back just when it looks like they might be ready to fall apart.
It's a trading game we've seen all too often, but that's typically what happens in running bull markets. They keep going higher until they end up being a bull in a china shop. Just another big supporting factor of the whole buy and hold methodology, because one can just ignore all of the unpredictability of the markets on a day-to-day basis knowing good companies will always trade higher over time.
One thing traders can rely on when it comes to trading anything on a short-term basis is ETF's, and I saw something just this morning that peaked my interest.
Many of you know natural gas has been clobbered for God knows how long now. But, I did see something this morning in UNG - a popular ETF tracking the price of natural gas - that was pretty compelling. Especially since the last time I saw this, the ETF started trading extremely well again.
Of course it ended up going lower in the end, but if you had just bought and sold it all in a month's time, the returns were pretty darn good. Back in November of last year, the stock had a huge single day of buying volume. The ensuing move took the ETF from around $7 bucks to over $9 per share before it cratered again - something it's had a big habit of doing for years.
Now, look at that big day of volume to kick off this month. You can't see, but it's even bigger than that one big volume day it had back in November of last year before the stock went crazy.
Can history repeat? I think so, and when you look at where the ETF has been and you look at where it's at now, one would have to think there's a pretty good contrarian opportunity in the stock now with Summer coming to an end soon.
When we look at so many other sectors of the markets getting all of the love lately, any sort of an early momentum move in natural gas could end up garnering plenty of interest heading into the rest of the year.
It's important to understand natural gas bulls have been wrong for an awful long time, but if you've been around long enough then you know everything changes at some point. Maybe it's the return of natural gas prices.