The markets are under siege once again, and it isn't looking good for the bulls right now - especially with the NASDAQ leading stocks lower on the day.
I'll reiterate something I told everyone on Tuesday here, along with updated charts of the S&P 500 and the VIX (Volatility Index), because based on the way the VIX is starting to behave, it's sure looking like the major averages are in trouble - unless of course they can find their footing pretty quickly.
I said on Tuesday, "A modest day for stocks so far after several days of screaming in both directions. Maybe that's a good thing. We could all probably use a breather based on recent volatility across the major averages. But, it does look like the S&P 500 is right back up around a trend line area that has been subject to selling on a few different occasions over the last week or so now.
Then, you look at the Volatility Index here and it becomes fairly obvious that every time the broader markets start to pick up questionable activity, they find a way every single time to settle down, and move higher. Until that changes, we really can't speculate too much on any sort of selloff - no matter how bad it looks initially.
Considering everything I just said there, if and when we see the habits change, that's probably going to be serious cause for concern. In other words, you can see it's only a matter of days where every single time the VIX sky rockets, it comes right back down to earth again.
So, if the VIX - for some unforeseeable reason - decides to sky rocket again very soon, then it would be then we'd should probably raise an eye brow. Until then, or if the VIX settle downs for another month or, we can probably assume there's nothing wrong with equities as a whole. At least not until something very different from what we've been so used to starts to surface."
Well, the chart of the VIX below here is at least "starting" to behave differently. It seems every time the VIX jumped over the last several months, it came back down to earth in fairly quick fashion. However, when it jumped back in July and then fell again, it did jump slightly again before cratering back down to historically low levels.
It's doing that exact same thing again - bumping higher - but in order for the behavioral change to really take effect, it's going to need to get back to this month's high. If it does that, look out below, because it would be then the consistent behavior of these markets will have changed dramatically.
The S&P 500 seems to be trying to come back on the day, but it's probably going to be all about the close and tomorrow's open. We've seen this so many times before that it's tough for the bears to even really trust any sort of weakness, because just about every time the bears jump on the breakdown wagon, they end up getting taken out to the woodshed for a spanking.
Will things be different this time around? We're going to find out real soon. I, for one, don't trust the overall market landscape all that much right now - despite my ongoing bullish bias.
Regardless, of what happens over the next several days - or even weeks - I hope small caps lead the charge once the major averages decide to settle. If we can get that, we could be in for a great Fall. Let's hope that ends up being the case.