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VOLUME
05: ISSUE 30
Trading
Alert: Stream - Like Buying Cable Stocks 20 Years Ago.
US
Cable penetration is now 67 percent or 80 million households. In 1981,
that penetration was 28 percent. Revenue for cable operators in 1985 was
less than $10 billion compared to $57 billion in 2004. Projections raise
that number to $86 billion by 2008. The bad news is that you've likely
missed the majority of that growth. Here's the chart:
The good news is that we've
unearthed what is, in our opinion, a comparable and compelling opportunity.
Although the cable communications
market in North America has matured, Europe --especially Central Europe--
has remained a laggard--good news for investors who want to gain exposure
to that fast-growing international business sector.
Our
pick to ride this wave--which we sincerely doubt will take anywhere near
20 years to catch up-- is Stream Communications (OTCBB:
SCNWF) an acquisitive cable provider aggressively raising its subscriber
base in Central Europe, specifically in one of the fastest growing and
strongest economies in Central Europe, Poland.
For the reasons above and below
as well as a constructive technical picture (chart, details below) we suggest
investors accumulate Stream Communication shares for what we believe will
be exceptional long-term growth.
Only game in a very large town.
Stream is the only North American
and European market publicly traded cable Communications Company that is
focused exclusively on the burgeoning markets and economies of Central
Europe. Since it's inception in 2000, Stream has steadily added subscribers
and plans to be the fifth largest cable operator in Poland by the end of
2005. Currently posting just under 60,000 subscribers, its current infrastructure
could easily handle in access of 100,000 without any additional build-out.
In the south of Poland alone, with
a population of 11.5 million, there are 3.2 million television homes. With
approximately 800,000 total subscribers, the current penetration is 25
percent-- which, in percentage terms, is roughly where the US was in the
early 1980's. The south is especially underserved--there is only a single
cable provider--so this geographic focus by Stream should raise both its
subscriber base and subsequent revenues, quickly.
Stream is now the 8th largest cable
company in Poland out of over 500 independent operators. The company realized
early that consolidation was an excellent and profitable strategy. It can
acquire subscribers by buying these small operators and has completed approximately
15 acquisitions as of April 2005. The latest is noted in Friday's release
(below).
Growth looks interesting, to say
the least.
Stream had annualized revenues of
$4.2 million in 2004, which extends the company's consistent growth to
five years. Further, in a recent report from Emergent Growth Analytics,
revenue for fiscal 2005 should come in at just under $25 million. The report
further projects that fiscal 2006 should see continued significant growth
as revenues exceed $56 million.
Stream
has begun and continues to offer state-of-the-art Internet as well as data
storage and VoIP services to businesses and homes in the region. Once again,
the numbers are compelling as only 28 percent of Poland has Internet usage
as compared to 60 percent in the EU. Poland's Internet penetration is expected
to reach 50 percent by 2010 through out homes and businesses. And we suspect
Stream will be a/the major player in that growth.
The Stream chart looks very constructive.
After a nice run last year, the shares pulled back perfectly to a .618
retracement and have been consolidating at that level. With that strength,
the shares appear to have good room to run and retest the $1.14 high. As
always, as good as the picture looks, a stop loss at 60-ish cents would
likely be prudent for all or part of a position. Long-term the picture
looks interesting.
Since Central Europe was late to
the Cable/Internet boom, the infrastructure is robust and has benefited
from modern technology. What this means is that Stream can focus on building
its brand and subscriber base without having to yard out virtually any
money to upgrade the system. With this albatross in flight, the Company
can stick to its business plan, which appears to be being executed quickly.
Given the geography of the region and its personnel on the ground in Poland,
Stream acquires operators close to its networks thereby keeping capital
costs low and maintaining the seamless nature of its network.
For investors, Stream is a standup
growth story. Management is keenly aware of how, where and with whom to
do business with in Poland as well as Central Europe. The team is led by
President and CEO Stanislaw Lis who has extensive international financing
experience and has been doing business in Poland since 1990. The quality
of the operation becomes readily apparent as one looks over the Board of
Directors which includes Robert Wussler, the President and CEO of Ted Turner
Pictures and Documentaries. Mr. Wussler has extensive experience and has
held the position of president of CBS Sports and the CBS Network as well
as being the co-founder of a few companies you may have heard of--CNN, TNT
and WTBS.
As I said, a quality line-up.
Only someone living in a cave wouldn't
realize the growth potential and competitive nature of the Cable Communications
sector. The rest of us who were either too young in the early 1980's or
having too much fun to realize the import and pervasive growth of the technology,
missed a significant opportunity.
In our opinion, that opportunity
may well have returned as the EU and especially Central Europe play catch
up. The need for massive capital outlays are virtually gone, the cable
brand, both for TV and Internet are commonplace, globally, so the challenge
is to find and exploit those markets that are underserved.
Stream, with its extensive knowledge
of the region, the business and the technology has matched the three together
and has already proven that both the Company and the market are well positioned
for significant growth.
PRESS RELEASE
Stream Acquires Additional 1,400
Cable Subscribers
Friday April 15, 4:00
pm ET
VANCOUVER, British Columbia,
April 15 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Stream Communications Network and Media
Inc. (OTC Bulletin
Board: SCNWF - News) is pleased to announce it has entered into an
agreement to purchase an additional 1,400 cable subscribers strategically
located next to the Company's existing network in Southern Poland.
Stream will issue 260,000
common shares of the Company in exchange for the completion of this transaction
bringing its current number of revenue generating units (RGU's) to 58,500
throughout its network.
With the addition of
Stream's two most recent acquisitions, the Company is now the 8th largest
Cable Communications network in Poland out of over 500 independent operators,
and has increased its annualized revenues by US$ 500,000.
About Stream
Stream is a broadband
cable company and offers Cable TV, high-speed Internet and VoIP services
in Poland. With 58,500 subscribers currently, Stream is one of the principal
consolidators of the Cable Communications sector and is a leading Cable
TV operator and Internet provider in the densely populated markets of Southern
Poland. Established in 2000, Stream has offices in Krakow and Vancouver.
Safe harbor for Forward-Looking
Statements:
Except for statements
of historical fact, the information presented herein constitutes forward-looking
statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform
Act of 1995. Such forward-looking statements involve known and unknown
risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results,
performance or achievements of the company to be materially different from
any future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by
such forward-looking statements. Such factors include general economic
and business conditions, the ability to acquire and develop specific projects,
the ability to fund operations and changes in consumer and business consumption
habits and other factors over which Stream Communications Network and Media
Inc. has little or no control.
This release was issued
through Major Newswire (http://www.majornewswire.com)
Source: Stream Communications
Network and Media Inc.
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