As I got started with today's edition, there didn't appear to be anything new with our current analysis of the major indexes today. We'd pretty much drawn our lines in the sand with our previous editions this week and weren't seeing much change in the way the markets were behaving. Options are expiring tomorrow, so the confluence area of where stocks have traded since last month's options expiration would have put the NASDAQ Composite roughly 20 points higher from yesterday's close, which would have represented a complete 50% retracement from the September 21st high to the recent low. And guess what? The September 21st high was exactly the day options expired last month. See how efficient the markets can be? Or, should I say see how market makers can put things right smack where they want them after a bunch of meaningless jostling for four weeks? Up, down and back up again putting the markets in the middle. Just a classic example of how divided the markets really are right now.
However, news hit the wires just a few minutes ago that Google missed. Probably not the most expected or brightest piece of news the markets could have gotten today, so now we've got the NASDAQ falling like a rock, which again makes the current picture look even more interesting on a very short-term basis. While investors are fleeing the markets this hour and market makers are loving the smell of fear, let's try and keep things in perspective. Does Google ever really miss? Not really, but let's face it, although they do make up a big piece of the NASDAQ 100, they are human and they're entitled to miss from time-to-time.
Basically, if you like GOOG, which I do very much, then wait until the dust settles and pick some up for your long-term conservative portion of your portfolio. What a deal. The stock has almost perfectly retraced 50% of its who leg up that started with the June low, all within an hour. Games, games and more games. It takes a stock five months to amass gains, which are 50% wiped out in 45 minutes! OK... The complete 50% retracement would put the stock at $666 bucks. I'm not a fan of that number (and you probably shouldn't be either), but it wouldn't be a bad place to buy the stock and tuck it away for your kid's college education. In the best interest of superstition, $665 or even $667 would be better. Just my two cents.
As far as the macro third quarter earnings picture, although it's still early in the earnings season, the results have been a bit better than anticipated if you don’t believe Google is the only company in the world. Fourteen percent of S&P 500 companies have already reported earnings, and of those companies, 65 percent have beaten analysts' expectations, ahead of the long-term average of 62 percent. Remember though, many estimates were revised lower prior to the third quarter earnings season, so it’s no surprise the beat percentage is better than expected. That’s just how Wall Street goes. The real story lies technically in what the weekly charts are going to reveal in the next two weeks. If you missed Monday’s edition, you can check it out here.
Speaking of Monday's edition, we suggested re-entries into four previously suggested ideas that have done extremely well for us in the past, APP, JCP, YELP and MNKD. So far, JCP is performing the best, APP and YELP haven't done much yet either way, but MNKD came out with some news this morning that has technically busted our trade and has investors spooked. However, if you read between the lines, is it just an opportunity for large players to take advantage of cheap stock?
The company announced plans to sell up to 140 million shares of stock. MannKind will use the funds to pay for new trials of its inhaled diabetes drug Afrezza and cancel more than $200 million in debt owed to its CEO. News that a company is selling a large amount of stock often weighs on shares, as existing shareholders worry that their individual holdings will be worth less with a bigger supply of stock on the market. MannKind had about 199 million shares outstanding as of Aug. 6.
MannKind said in September that it would sell up to $500 million in common and preferred stock, warrants, and debt securities as it seeks approval from the Food and Drug Administration for Afrezza. It's been trying to win approval for years, and expects to complete new studies of the drug and the inhaler that delivers it in 2013. The Valencia, Calif., company has no approved drugs.
One offering consists of 40 million shares of restricted stock and warrants to buy 30 million more restricted shares to a group controlled by MannKind's CEO and biggest shareholder, Alfred Mann. In return, The Mann Group LLC will cancel $224.6 million in debt MannKind owes it. Alfred Mann is MannKind's largest shareholder by far, with a nearly 42 percent stake.
So if investors knew this was coming, why are they so freaked out? That's a good question because if you really take a minute and think about it, the whole deal looks like a gypsy swap to me. They're retiring debt, but increasing dilution and their stake in the Company inadvertently through a group controlled by the CEO. This tells me one of two things and the two points I'll make couldn't be more polarizing in opposition. Either the Company is a flat out joke and they're just using MNKD as a money making machine to sell stock and make money, or these guys believe so much in the future of Afrezza that their initial stake in the Company just isn't enough and they want more. Since I'm no biotech genius or highly decorated biotech researcher, I'll leave that decision up to the experts.
I will say this though... it sure looks like the activity in the stock today is a huge effort to simply shake weak hands. Look at how the stock opened just under the summer support level. That's no coincidence. Look at how huge the volume is and it's up from the open. That's no coincidence either. Let's see where it closes and how it reacts over the next couple of days. If you like speculative ideas and you're opportunistic, which we continue to suggest in this current market environment, MNKD looks awfully interesting at this level for long-term players. However, if you're thinking about taking a stake, let things calm down for a while first.
As for the rest of the market, we'll be kicking off a whole new batch of options next week, so be prepared for things to get real interesting yet again. If the recent theme continues to hold true, just wait and see what the major indexes do for the first few weeks of the new options period, then go the other way. Contrarian hasn't been a bad play at all.