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VOLUME 08 : ISSUE 81
In
This Edition...
*
Voyant Conference Call Reminder
*
The Silver Lining of the Lehman, Goldman, Merrill Trifecta
*
SpongeTech CEO Lays it All Out
Voyant
Conference Call Reminder
Just
as a reminder, Voyant
International's (OTCBB: VOYT) upcoming investor conference call
is scheduled for Wednesday, September 17th, at 2:00 PM EST.
To
listen in, dial 877-741-4248 five to ten minutes prior to start time for
registration if you're in the U.S. or Canada. International callers should
dial 719-325-4763. Either way, the event passcode is 5794266.
There
will be a replay available if you can't make the call. However, there's
nothing better than a live event, right?
The
Silver Lining of the Lehman, Goldman, Merrill Trifecta
Well,
I'm not surprised it happened. I'm just surprised it happened in the span
of just a few days. Lehman filed Chapter 11, Merrill was 'sold' to Bank
of America, and Goldman Sachs posted earnings that confirmed just how bad
things are within the capital markets. AIG is on the chopping block too.
You
know what though? I'm thinking like a net buyer right now ...particularly
for the financials, but also the overall market.
I suspect
many of you are as well, realizing if there was any bad news left to bake
into stock prices as of last week, it's been taken care of since then.
Or to say it another way, how much worse could it get? Lehman shares
are trading at 20 cents. AIG is currently priced around $2.70. All the
major financial stocks are near multi-year lows.
Don't
get me wrong - technically things can always get worse. In
this situation though, anything short of the bubonic plague isn't going
to raise an eyebrow when it comes to Lehman or AIG. Merrill's been taken
care of, and Goldman shares already paid the price for a weak quarter.
What's
left to factor in?
Indeed,
Lehman (or what's left of it) has drawn the attention of Barclay's, JP
Morgan and Goldman are providing some much-needed cash for AIG, and the
Merrill/BofA union should actually offer some synergies. Those are all
good
things....the silver lining behind the nail being driven into the proverbial
coffin
That's
not my only hint though. It's not even my biggest hint.
Most
of you know by now I'm also a contrarian; I zig when everyone else zags.
In
market terms, I'm a buyer when everyone is a panicked seller. And, 'panicked'
is the key word.
One
of my favorite gauges of market sentiment is the CBOE's Volatility Index
(or VIX). It peaks when traders are fearful, and it hits lows when
traders are optimistic. When the VIX hits the extreme ends of its
range, I get to work.
I haven't
talked much about the VIX in a while, primarily because there's been nothing
to talk about - it's just been in neutral territory. That all changed yesterday
day though.
The
nearby chart tells the story ...investors are freaking out. The VIX hit
highs we haven't seen since mid-March, so we know fear is high. The thing
is, the VIX hit those highs in March and pulled back from them right about
the time the market made a huge rebound move. In fact, each of the VIX's
recent peaks has tagged a bottom (some more significant than others).
I don't
know if this instance will be different than the previous five. It theoretically
could
be, but the odds are astronomically against it. For this VIX peak
not to be ultimately bullish, the VIX would have to stay here above
30 - or even move higher - to keep stocks pointed lower. Clearly
the VIX hasn't been keen on doing that recently. In fact, the VIX rallied
briefly on Tuesday, and then ended up moving under Monday's close... a
subtle hint of reversal pressure.
As
always, stranger things can and do happen, so being vigilant is
necessary. My chief worry is that a move under today's lows could spell
trouble for the the market. From a risk/reward perspective though, I have
to favor the market's upside potential right now.
SpongeTech
CEO Lays it All Out
I don't
know how many of you caught the letter from SpongeTech
(OTCBB: SPNG) CEO Michael Metter, but if you didn't, I recommend
you check it out. I'll whet your appetite here, and add my own two cents.
In
a nutshell, I sensed a little attitude in the letter. I understand
it though. The company is going like gangbusters ...sales growth and earnings
growth have been phenomenal. Yet, the stock still isn't responding.
Metter
suggested the cause of the stock's struggle was naked short selling. Though
we can not confirm his suspicion, we can't rule it out either. It would
certainly make sense - the track record of results should have pushed the
stock well past five cents by this point. At the same time though, we also
have to wonder how dilution has played a role in the market's perception
of SpongeTech.
No
matter - we're still mostly focused on revenue and EBITDA,
both of which are expected to be even better for their fiscal Q1 (which
ended Aug. 31st).
Per
the letter, they're expecting about $5 million in sales. They didn't offer
any EBITDA guidance for Q1. But, they had net income of $1.2 million on
$4 million in sales during Q4. Assuming they net about 30% of revenue again,
we're looking for a net income of around $1.5 million.
The
dilution debate not withstanding, the SpongeTech story all along has
been about value, and this stock's never been short of it.
With
a net of $1.5 million in Q1, that should lead to an EPS of about 0.28 cents
for the quarter. Annualized, that makes the P/E ratio something around
2.0. Now the naked short selling possibility doesn't seem crazy
at all ...I can't imagine the market overlooking something like that low
P/E for this long.
If
it is indeed the short sellers keeping SPNG at bay, I think they're playing
with fire. That's a lot of short trades to be covered, and it could lead
to a complete upside explosion when and if it happens.
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Spicy
Pickle Grows More San Diego Roots
If
any of you are near 317 10th Avenue (near Petco Park) in San Diego, California,
pretty soon you're going to have another cuisine choice. Spicy
Pickle (OTCBB: SPKL) just signed a lease for the location. That
should be the next one opening up in San Diego, though the same restaurateur
has already signed a lease for a third San Diego store to be opened later
in 2009.
As
for the stock, SPKL put up a good fight, staving off market weakness for
most of the last four weeks. The most recent outgoing tide created by Lehman
and AIG, however, has just been too much to resist. Spicy Pickle shares
have moved to 41 cents.
Normally
I'd call that a bargain, but normally we're not in a recession either.
Now it's like trying to catch a falling knife. I still have tremendous
confidence in the company's plan. However, timing is everything. I'm going
to table this one until it looks like it can draw a buying crowd.
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