Welcome back everyone. Not only are we at the beginning of a new week, but we're kicking off a new month as well as a new quarter. And, I've got a feeling Q2 isn't going to be anything like Q1.... in a bad way. More on that below, along with our usual market analysis. First though, I want to point out some of the site's sizzling commentaries posted today. Tell It Like It Is Gotta be honest - I love the way the site's regular contributors just say things in plain English, and aren't afraid to tell it like it is. Take Peter Graham's look at ITonis Inc (ITNS), Global Security Agency (GSAG), and Global Resource Energy Inc (GBEN). All three have been promoted of late [which isn't necessarily a bad thing], but Graham asks what the catch is with each one, and then answers his own question! If you've already seen the promos for these stocks but want the rest of the story, check out "Promoters Still Love These Small Cap Stocks, Should You?" Does the name Delcath Systems (DCTH) ring a bell? James Brumley mentioned it a couple of weeks ago as a budding bullish idea, following a sharp pullback after an equally-sharp rally. The gist was very Buffett-esque, meaning the time to buy something is when nobody else wants it. Turns out it was a great call. The stock pushed up and off a key support line late last week, and is still going strong. Brumley makes a great point about the way this is all taking shape, and how the current chart is dovetailing into a key approval (or denial) date for Delcath. Finally, if you've been following the saga of Biogen-Idec (BIIB) and its MS drug TECFIDERA, then you'll definitely want to check out what the savvy folks at Bio-Wire have to say about it. These guys crunch some numbers, and what they come up with looks very, very compelling. There's a bunch of other good stuff posted at the site today, but for some reason those three just stuck out to me. Yawn Yeah, the market may have lost 0.5% today, but it was a relatively forgettable session. We've been saying it's going to take the market a while to figure out whether we're in breakout mode, or just setting up for a pullback. Today's slight dip doesn't lead us any closer to an answer. So now what? Well, nothing... at least not yet. The market's still in limbo here, and we can't make it say something it's not willing to tell us yet. There are a handful of details we need to keep in mind about the S&P 500 though. For starters, the new ceiling is at 1570.4. That was roughly Thursday's and today's high. Unless the index can actually clear that level, then any bullish talk is nothing more than chatter. For that matter, 1576.09 is still a key line in the sand. That's the S&P 500's peak level from October of 2007, and as we've mentioned already, the market may actually need to see that level reached before all the potential profit-takers get off the sidelines and start dumping stocks. The problem is amplified by the upper 20-day Bollinger band now bearing down on the S&P 500. It's a 1573.13, and sinking. On the flipside, we're still making higher highs and higher lows since the mid-March low, and the key 20-day moving average line at 1552.60 is still holding up as a floor. Until and unless the S&P 500 actually closes under that mark, then the bears have little to get excited about either. So once again, we wait. There's just one problem with waiting on the market right now, however... the longer we have to wait for stocks to figure out what they want to do, the more likely it becomes we'll end up getting the usual April rollover. Keep reading. A Tough Time of Year To tell you the truth, today's pullback by itself doesn't look like that big of a deal; the market has certainly survived worse than a dip of this size. But, the timing of the runup into last week's highs and then today's subsequent pullback - the very day we start a new month and a new quarter - is more than a little suspicious. Why's that? Because the last three Aprils (2010, 2011, and 2012) all brought us major market tops followed by a pullback of at least 10%. Throw in the fact that the S&P 500 has already gained 9.5% this year so far, and one can't help but worry about 2013's April being especially vulnerable to a repeat performance of the prior three Aprils. I'm not going to detail how each of the last few Aprils panned out. I will provide charts of all three, however, just to prove I'm not making stuff up. The nearby image plots the first five months of 2012; the first three were red hot, and the next two were ice cold. The selloff started right as April began. In 2011, the S&P 500 managed to keep pushing higher through the end of April, but the top-out still occurred in April, and by August of that year the market had still given up nearly 18% of its value. For 2010, we saw something akin to 2011's action in that the top-out actually came later in April, although the slow-down started to materialize heading into the month. When it was all said and done, the S&P 500 had fallen more than 16% by the end of June of that year. Just to be fair, the 2011 pullback coincided with the aftermath of a tsunami in Japan that caused a meltdown at one of the country's nuclear power plants. But, that event may have simply been a catalyst for what was going to happen to stocks at the time anyway. The point is, this is a really tough time of year for stocks. It's apt to be even tougher considering how much the market has already run up in 2013. Exceptions to the norms happen, but there's a reason they're called exceptions. Throw in the fact that we've also been flirting with record-highs for the S&P 500, and you really have to concede if the market was going to pull back, this is where it's likely to happen. Just something to think about. We'll be thinking about it anyway, as we navigate you guys through April. Now, all that being said, just because the broad market may be headed for trouble this month doesn't mean there's not opportunity for traders and investors. Some stocks will manage to do well no matter what, and it's entirely possible to make money when - and even because - the market goes south. The good folks at the SmallCap Network Elite Opportunity can tell you how. In fact, these guys have been dissecting a specific bearish trade for a while now. I can't tell you what it is exactly, but it's been a lot of fun (not to mention educational) to see how these guys turn a concept into a trading idea. I've said it before and I'll say it now.... the folks at SCN EO really know how to find the balance between the way things are and the way they should be. If you're not a subscriber, you're missing out.... not to mention missing out on a free two-week trial if you're mulling becoming a member. You can learn more about it here. Or, copy and paste the following link in your browser: http://www.smallcapnetwork.com/?vmpd_ckstr[click_track]=SCN+Newsletter&vmpd_ckstr_redirect=/pages/SCNEO/v1/