Happy hump-day, fellow traders. I trust everyone's week has gone well so far. Today's decent gain had to help a little on that front, though I'm still convinced the market's ready to dole out an entire bullish leg of the long-term rally. In fact, there's a good-sized part of me that's even more pessimistic now - after today's runup - that's thinking today could be "the" short-term top. I'll tell you why in a below. The first thing we need to take care of is an update (maybe the next-to-last update) on third quarter's overall earnings, since we opened that can of worms a few weeks ago. Let's just start there. Q3 Earnings Report Card OK, real quickly here, with 92% of the S&P 500's companies having reported in, the S&P 500 is on pace to earn $27.02 per share for Q3. That's way better than the $26.77 that was being batted around the last time we looked, and way better than the year-ago figure of $24.00. Just bear in mind the year-ago comparison was a very depressed number. As for the beat/miss ratio, 67% of the reporting companies topped estimates, 23% missed (much more than usual), and 10% met. Those still aren't the final numbers, but with 92% of the market already posting Q3's results, it's not like we'll see any big changes from here. By the way, while I was collecting the data for this earnings update, I was also gathering the data for the small-cap earnings trend/report I promised to you earlier in the week. I don't want to let the cat out of the bag, but I will tell you it's a bit of an eye-opener... and something you'll want to consider as you make your long-term investment plans headed into 2014. It may be out as early as tomorrow. Too Good For Our Own Good? Not only did the market make a solid 0.8% gain on Wednesday, but in so doing, the S&P 500 finally pushed past that big resistance line at 1776. For all intents and purposes, that's about as plainly bullish as you can get. Volume, though not huge, was solid, telling us a few people are getting off the fence and into the market... as buyers. So what's my beef? My spider-sense is tingling because this market always has a way of throwing you a curve ball when it's least expected. That's been the case even more of late. It's not just an uncomfortable feeling I have with the overly-obvious trade though - there are a couple of more specific reasons I find the whole thing a little suspicious. One of them is just the way the S&P 500 is back up to its upper 20-day Bollinger band, at 1783. The other worry is the fact that the VIX is back at its lower Bollinger band, at 12.44 [the VIX is also right back to a major horizontal floor around 12.3]. This is usually when things start to sour for stocks. I also like what John Monroe over at the SmallCap Network Elite Opportunity explained about how/why the market could have been going higher today yet still be bearish overall... "The reasoning behind our current analysis suggesting these markets could simply be going higher is two-fold. The first being, often times when the markets are nearing a tradable top, there's one more big break to the upside, which usually ends up exhausting short sellers." In other words, a last hurrah. I'm not going to get smug about the fact that the SCN EI agrees with my assessment, however. As Monroe immediately added... "However, that's not necessarily something anyone can hang their hat on as a solid context for a directional move." Now, I have to acknowledge that most of the recent prior encounters with the upper Bollinger band didn't result in immediate pullbacks. Rather, the market's had a tendency to trace the upper Bollinger band upward for a few more days before rolling over. There is a difference this time, however, and that's the VIX. The VIX wasn't at rock-bottom levels - and complacency wasn't this high - the last few times the market bumped into its upper Bollinger bands. I could be wrong to worry about it; maybe the market is destined for higher highs, fulfilling the promise of the usual year-end rally. I don't think I am wrong though. It's just going to take a few days to know for sure either way. With all of that being said, there's actually something of an advantage to the way stocks stagnated over the past couple of weeks and allowed the Bollinger bands for the VIX as well as the S&P 500 start to contract and squeeze in on their respective indices. That advantage is that we now have some key lines in the sand to mark the technical beginning of a pullback. For the S&P 500, that technical bearish cue is going to be a move UNDER the lower Bollinger band. It's currently at 1736, but rising. Any couple of closes under that line will tell us that long-awaited pullback has finally started. Anything less would be an iffy bear signal. To confirm a pullback is underway, I'd really like to see the VIX close above its upper Bollinger band (currently at 13.9) as well as close above its 50-day moving average line at 14.6. If we get that, be worried. Start playing defense then, as we may finally be getting that overdue correction. But hey - that bearish plan may be irrelevant if the market can keep chugging here. A couple more (and higher) closes above the upper Bollinger band could convince everyone else to get off the fence and into the market. If that ball gets rolling, I'm not going to stand in its way. On the other hand, I'm sure as heck not going to nibble on this bullish bait until I know the odds favor doing so. We don't have that assurance yet. Alright, I know that may have been a little more perspective and a tentative game plan than you were bargaining for, but we haven't taken a close look at the market in a while. There just wasn't any need to. After today though, it's pretty clear the bulls are going to force the bears to play their hand, so it's time to prep for a move. Thing is, the bears may actually be holding the stronger hand here. We'll have a better idea by the end of the week. Let's check in again Thursday and Friday. We expect to have something more concrete then. By the way, if you thought John Monroe's observation and wisdom about the potential market top unfurling right now, that's only a small snippet of the kind of insights you can get from that newsletter all the time. If you don't believe it, put 'em to the test, for free. Here's how to get the free trial . Or, copy and paste the following link in your browser: http://www.smallcapnetwork.com/?vmpd_ckstr[click_track]=SCN+Newsletter&vmpd_ckstr_redirect=/pages/SCNEO/v1/