The most frustrating part about the current market environment? Remaining patient. We know the market is likely to do something in the foreseeable future. And, we know from the rally that's taken shape over the course of February that the majority of traders are expecting bullish catalysts. We also know, however, if the headlines don't deliver, the rally is subject to a fairly significant reversal. What we don't know is when any of this will matter. Giving credit where it's due, I think it was hedge fund manager Doug Kass that may have said it best today: "... given the general lack of certainty that exists in so many arenas -- economic, trade, interest rates, inflation(and inflationary expectations, currency, political and geopolitical -- I can't make the pivot to Blind Faith of being long in today's equity market." He's right. Although to a certain extent the market should be able to price in a bit of a premium when there's growing hope on the horizon, with a trailing P/E ratio of around 21 and a forward-looking P/E ratio of just under 18 for the S&P 500, the 13% rally since early November can't be based on any reasonable interpretation of the market's fundamentals as they stand today. The only explanation is extreme confidence in whatever President Trump intends to do is going to work in a big way ("bigly"?), and work soon. Like Kass, I personally just can't get there in my head, which in turn means I can't get there if that's what you guys and gals want to hear from me. Don't misunderstand. I'll be the first one to shout from the hilltop how if the market's going higher, then you have to ride the trend as you see it until you have a clear reason not to. If you're strictly a trader and not an investor, you've gotta be lovin' this environment. If you're more of an investor than a trader though, we just don't think now is the right time to be piling in sizeable new positions. Timing really is everything, for better or worse. As our very own John Monroe told Elite Opportunity Pro members in his newsletter this afternoon: "The markets continue to clearly defy all possibility of a reversal, something we're basically letting go of at this point, however, mark my words here - when these markets finally do decide to throw in the towel, you'd better be prepared, because it's going to be one ugly selloff when it finally does rear its ugly head. The problem at this point is nobody knows when that's going to be now. We're still 100% convinced it's going to come sooner, rather than later, but at this point one can't continue to throw good money after bad. Sure, there's still plenty of good reason to maintain some exposure to some index ETF put options a month or two out, but you can't be over allocating to the idea of a potential selloff when the selloff hasn't even occurred yet." So, we'll once again reiterate it all boils down to timing. And in this case (unlike other cases), you don't want to be thinking, acting or trading preemptively or presumptuously. We have to be patient. That's admittedly tough to do. That being said, just for the record, don't think for a minute the market's underpinnings and undertow aren't doing something which will eventually open the trading floodgates, for good or bad. There are a ton of things happening behind the scenes which are going to matter real soon. One of those things is the U.S. dollar. We've been keeping close tabs on the U.S. Dollar Index for you for a while now... not every day, because sometimes there's nothing going on worth mentioning. Today it's worth a look though, if only to show you how a rally effort that started to take shape in early February has now been stifled... twice. A new downtrend hasn't developed yet, but the possibility remains on the radar. Take a look. The 50-day moving average line (purple) has once again thwarted an advance. There's a ton of support all around the 100.5 area, and we have to presume the low of 99.2 from early in the month will become a key floor again, particularly with the 200-day moving average line (green) inching its way to that mark. We just wanted to put it back on your radar today because it appears as if it's all going to come to a head again pretty soon. There's an upside to any potential demise of the dollar, of course. That is, crude oil could finally break out of what's become a multi-month funk, and resume the bigger recovery effort that began in early 2016. Even with just a quick, glancing look at the weekly chart of crude futures below we can see something of a head-and-shoulders (upside down) pattern developing here. There's a ceiling around $54.50 that's kept a lid on oil since December, but the resistance line is under substantial attack this week. If it's cleared, it could incite a rather solid rally capable of carrying crude above the $60.00 level, though we continue to have a sneaking suspicion oil could get to - and even stay at - the $70.00-ish level before supply-and-demand stabilize. We've also plotted some Fibonacci retracement lines on our chart, as both of those lines could be back in play soon enough as a ceiling. They're at $58.00 and $77.00, give or take. It never hurts to be prepared for all contingencies. We just wanted to put these ideas back on your radar in case they had fallen off of it. A rebound in oil prices is largely predicated on a pullback of the dollar, but a rebound in oil prices could have a nice, bullish ripple effect across the entire economy. The frustrating part of the matter is, with the market as overbought and overvalued as it is right now, that ripple effect may not be able to have much impact - at least not right away. We'll have to play it by ear, if it needs to be played. Finally, we want to continue on with the discussion we started yesterday, dissecting specific mid cap sectors with earnings trends that could make or break a group. We only have time for one today, but what a one it is. As you may have suspected based on our side comment in Wednesday's newsletter, today we're going to drill down into the mid cap telecom sector, exploring its earnings trend and valuation. I'll warn you now the near-term earnings trend is amazingly volatile, good and bad. Look past all the wild swings and ferret out the bigger picture; the volatile bottom lines are mostly volatile due to non-operational matters that still have to be booked. Instead - and as we said - look at the longer-term picture. We've even added a four-quarter moving average line to the earnings history to help you smooth out the volatility and get a firm grip on the bigger trend. Read 'em and weep. In simplest terms, even when stripping out the volatile earnings data, this is a difficult group to like. Yeah, the outlook looks bullish, IF these companies can actually meet those goals. Based on the history here though, we have doubts mid cap telecom stocks are going to be able to do as well as analysts say they will. That doesn't prevent these names as a group from moving higher. This has been and continues to be the hottest sector from the mid cap sliver of the market, gaining 29% since the early November low. The chart simply tells us there's not a whole lot of fundamental backing for the big move. Sometimes these charts are 'eye openers' in bearish ways to.... something we weren't expecting to see before we did this research for you. But, it is what it is. Moral of the story: If you own or are going to own a mid cap telecom name, know you're fighting an uphill battle. You better have one heck of a reason to think the stock you like is going to be an exception to the norm.