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How to Survive This Go-Nowhere Market
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February 2, 2024

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PDT

Today's lack of meaningful movement from stocks marks the end of the third month of stagnation. It's getting pretty old, really, but worse than that, I'm afraid it could last a while. Stocks ARE overvalued, which is keeping a lid on any breakout effort. Yet, traders are also looking to hang in there until and then after November 8th, thinking the next President might light a much-needed fire under the economy. This indecision could keep things on ice (for better or worse) well into the new year. It's not as if your hands are completely tied though. Yes, the whole thing is quite frustrating, but we're going to look at three specific ways you can keep your portfolio's value moving ahead even when the market isn't. We know some of you are already doing some of these things, but it's unlikely all of you are doing all of them. In no particular order... Sell Covered Calls We know the word "option" is an immediate turn-off for a lot of investors who've heard horror stories about their unbridled risk. All we can say is, don't jump to conclusions until you hear both sides of the story. The risk of an option largely lies in how you trade them. Covered calls are a relatively low-risk way of using them to generate a little -- though not a lot -- of income on your existing positions. There's a caveat, but not an alarming one. Let's just start at the beginning for anyone who isn't familiar with them. An option, or option contract to be more specific, is a contract to buy a certain number of shares of a particular stock at a certain price by a certain date in the future. If you buy one call contract, you buy the right to buy those shares from someone else at X price in the future regardless of where that stock's trading in the future. If you sell a call option contract, you sell someone the right to buy those 100 shares from you in the future at X price. (Put option contracts are the reverse... they give you the right to sell a stock at X price sometime in the future, and if you sell puts, you sell someone the right to make you buy their shares at X price.) Most of the time option traders have no intention of buying or selling shares. They're just speculating on the price change of puts or calls, which changes as the price of the underlying stock changes. Sometimes though, call options can serve a different purpose. By selling calls on shares you already own but wouldn't mind selling at the right price in the future, you can pocket a little extra money in the meantime.. The catch? For it to be a covered call, you actually have to own 100 shares of the stock you're selling calls on; that's the "covered" aspect. Let's go through an example using AT&T (T). While AT&T is a solid long-term holding, the mid-year runup it dished out is apt to mean it stays flat or even goes down from its current price near $39 through January. If I didn't mind selling them for a profit should the unexpected happen between now and then, I could sell seven January call options with a strike price of $43 on my 700 shares of T that I own right now. At a price of 10 cents each (10 cents x 100 shares = proceeds of $10 per contract) times a total of seven contracts means I can put $70 in my pocket right here, right now, and would still own my AT&T shares. The risk I run - the only risk I run - is that AT&T moves more than a little above $43 by January and I have to end up selling my 700 shares at a price of $43 each. You know what though? I'm perfectly ok with that, since my cost basis is much lower than that and I don't think T is going to be able to remain above $43 for very long, IF it gets there at all. It's only $70, but it's $70 I wouldn't have had if I did nothing. 700 shares of AT&T isn't an enormous position, and I just squeezed an extra $70 out of it. And truth be told, AT&T is low-return opportunity to write covered calls. Some stocks yield a lot more with covered calls. Not a big deal? I don't entirely disagree. What if you did that (and did that on even better terms) on four or five of your positions though, and you did it several times a year. I've heard of people improving their returns by an extra eight percentage points a year by selling covered calls. My experience says an additional 4% to 5% improvement on your current typical return is more realistic, but who's going to complain about an extra 4% or 5%? Pay Attention to Sectors Still with us? Good. The covered call discussion was the lengthiest of the three we'll have here. The next two are much easier. Though it's second on our list of ways to move forward in a lethargic market, I'll concede it's the one I've seen the most traders use to achieve the biggest results. That is, tap into bullish sector trends, and steer clear (or short) bearish sector trends. You know the performance difference between the top-performing sector and the bottom-performing sector in any given year? Most people would say 10% or so, meaning if technology is the top-performing name in one year with a 20% gain, then if the bottom-performing sector gains only 10%, the difference is 10%. Here's the thing.... the differential is closer to a whopping 30%, if not more. That's too big to ignore, and it's too much to not respond to. You have to trade accordingly. The $64,000 question is, how do you spot the hot and cold sectors? There are a bunch of ways to do this if you're creative, but the easiest and best way is to use this chart that the Under the Radar Movers newsletter posts on a pretty regular basis. It's a visual representation of how each major sector has performed over the course of the past twelve months. With it you can see where trends start to develop or reverse course. Right now, it's crystal clear that the big telecom stock rally has turned into a downtrend, while the financial sector is picking itself up off the mat. Discretionary stocks are deteriorating, and energy stocks are on the mend. (Click on the picture to blow it up.) This isn't necessarily a long-term investment approach (though it can be long-term), but the war is won by winning consecutive battles. It was clear telecom stocks were pulling back two months ago. Battle won. It was clear months ago that energy stocks were on the road to recovery. Another battle won. This visual presentation makes it clear and easy to find how sector strength or weakness is taking shape. In fact, this chart is about the most potent sector-rotation took I've ever been blessed to have access to. [Side note: Notice how telecom stock AT&T followed the same path that the telecom sector traced on the sector comparison chart above - there was no doubt T was fighting an uphill battle two months ago based on the sector chart. Stocks in a sector tend to move in a flock.] Think Small As self-serving as it may seem to say small cap stocks are the solution to a stagnant market, that's not our intent. We've just observed that the more off-the-radar a stock is, the less subject it is to the broad market's tide (or lack thereof). You don't have to get crazy here and dip down into the nano-cap space and buy companies with market caps that don't even register on the scale.... though there are some surprisingly big winners in that sliver of the market too. Anything not in the S&P 500 is worth a look. And, anything not in the Russell 1000 but still listed on an exchange would be a great place to find undiscovered values that are going to do what they're going to do whether the market helps or not. Oh, and like it or not, a bunch of the best ones in this group are going to be biotech. We'd recommend NOT trying to make a play on drug approvals though. That's usually a losing proposition. Look for good stories, and look for the right charts - they'll tell you a great deal about building momentum. Bottom Line There you go. Three quick and easy tips to get a little more out of the market right now, just in case the market remains stuck in the mud for a while longer. Of course, even once the market gets out of its current rut, it'll fall back into one in the future. Keep today's edition in your back pocket for future reference. Of the three ideas, the one I think is most feasible for anyone to start doing today - and start getting more out of the market by tomorrow - is the second one.... tapping into sector strength and steering clear of sector weakness. You can do it with stocks or ETFs, and even if it only keeps you out of trouble, it's worth the effort. I'll also highly recommend becoming a subscriber to the URM service to gain access to the chart you see above. Whenever it's relevant, James and is team send it out. You don't just get that sector-comparison chart with a subscription to the Under the Radar Movers newsletter though. You get short-term and long-term stock picks, short-term market analysis, economic data, and most of all, a realistic, actionable perspective on everything that matters. Honestly, I don't see how they can give it to you for less than a dollar a day, but I'm not going to complain either. Here's how to get it for yourself.