Hi all. You know, it's been a while since we've just stopped to take a good look at the market, so let's take care of that first thing today. Besides, there's plenty to talk about in light of everything that's happened this week. Long story made short, the weight of the Trump rally has finally started to take a toll. It's too soon to say the market is in serious trouble, but it's not too soon to prepare for the possibility. Take a look at the daily chart of the S&P 500. The support line (dashed) that guided the latter two-thirds of the post-election runup has been snapped... and rather decisively. The selling volume has been pretty significant for the past two days as well. The VIX is on the rise too. In both cases, though the moves have yet to be "breakthrough," there's a little momentum behind the effort thus far. We have to respect that. The make-or-break clue here isn't tough to figure out. The S&P 500 needs to break under a fairly thick band of support made up of some key moving average lines all between 2155 and 2172. Until that floor breaks, nothing really matters. Ditto for the VIX's ceiling at 14.8, where the 20-day and 50-day moving average lines have converged, and where the index topped out today. The bears are testing the waters. They haven't done anything yet, but they're trying to figure out the market's true complexion here headed into the most bullish month of the year. With all of that being said, we'll repeat something everyone needs to hear right now... the market is trading right now on sentiment and speculation, and NOT fundamentals. Investors (and the pundits) are trying to rationalize their outlooks with select pieces of fundamental data, but the reality is, this thing could still go either way. Still, the technicals are telling a story here. We're going to defer to the superior judgment of John Monroe of the Elite Opportunity Pro and use his take on things. He's got some added perspective we wouldn't otherwise have for you today. In today's edition of the EO Pro, John comments: "Interestingly enough, by day's end yesterday, the NASDAQ Composite staged its single biggest losing day since the election yesterday, further suggesting these markets have run into some resistance for the time being. We're not surprised, since we our previously suggested short-term targets on both the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 continued to get tested. We've also continued to reference the possibility of a move below the 3X3 DMA on both indices, as well as how not much has changed quite yet from a fundamental perspective. In other words, we've given every technical reason why the markets were on the very of at least a nice healthy breather, and it appears that's what we're getting now. However, I don't think it will last all that long. Provided below is a daily chart of the NASDAQ Composite, and as you can see, I've included some key short-term retracement levels. Assuming these levels hold, the potential reversal off either of these levels should provide some nice buying opportunities. At this point, we're eyeing roughly 5,263, which is the NASDAQ's first line of defense. If that level holds, and more importantly the markets snap back in furious fashion, that level could serve as a bottom for the rest of the year. If that level is breached to the downside, we're likely looking at anywhere from 5,237 to 5,176.... ... I still believe these markets will make another new high by year's end, but just how much more upside is left before we see a major market re-set remains to be seen. We've put our targets out there for the NASDAQ and the S&P 500, so it's going to be extremely important to see just when and how they get there. The first level of targets have pretty much been achieved, so now we'll see just how these markets end up working their way to the next set of targets, specifically X,XXX on the NASDAQ and X,XXX on the S&P 500. Sit tight, Mr. Toad's Wild Ride will get better." Sorry we had to remove the specific upside target levels John laid out, but we're already pushing our luck "borrowing" as much of his commentary as we did. For what it's worth though, John's usually right. If you're trying to figure out where all the ebbs and flows are going to happen with ridiculous precision, he's your guy. And here's the really cool part about the Elite Opportunity Pro newsletter - as good as John and his team are at handicapping the market, they're even better at picking stocks and ETFs. We've not had much of a chance lately to point it out because we've been looking at the Under the Radar Movers service's trades, but the EO Pro is lighting up as well. In the middle of November, the Elite Opportunity's swing-trading portfolio locked in a 59% gain on the Direxion Daily S&P Biotech Bull 3X ETF (LABU), a 44% profit on the Direxion Daily Small Cap Bull 3X ETF (TNA), and a 38% gain on Agios Pharmaceuticals (AGIO). Oh, and every one of those trades was held for less than two weeks. That's efficient. Could your portfolio use a few more big-time double-digit winners headed into the end of the year? Maybe a little extra holiday spending money? Try the Elite Opportunity Pro service. You'll be glad you did. In any case, a couple curious things going on with the market today... although the U.S. dollar fell, interest rates ticked a little higher; they're supposed to move in the same direction. Could this be evidence of the "great disconnect" theory we posed several weeks ago, where interest rates rise (as they should) and the dollar falls anyway (as it also should in the shadow of a huge long-term rally)? Surprisingly, gold didn't rally despite the dollar's rise. Maybe the market doesn't think the dollar is going to keep falling for long. We don't see it that way, but whatever. Oil prices did rally on the heels of the dollar's pullback, although that may have more to do with OPEC's decision than the U.S. dollar. Still, in the grand scheme of things we think gold AND oil are poised to rise, while the greenback falls and in spite of firm - and maybe even rising - interest rates. A lot of the stuff we've seen lately hasn't made a whole lot of sense. Too many traders were too presumptuous, and many of them overshot with their speculations. The dollar was a big one that simply got overextended, and to a lesser degree, interest rates rose too much. To unwind all of that overextension, the dollar has to peel back... a lot. Interest rates... eh, they're ok where they are Regardless, the greenback's pullback should be good for gold, but we think the real budding trade here is rising oil. Take a look at the longer-term (weekly) chart of crude oil prices. Irrespective of what OPEC is or is not doing (which is more bark than note, by the way) crude's been working its way into the narrow end of a converging wedge shape; the wedge has been forming since the beginning of the year. Given how long the squeezing pressure has been building up, the explosive move out of the wedge should be soon. This week's strong thrust may be the catalyst for such a move. We know it's an idea not many people have put out there, as most are still concerned about a supply/demand dynamic that keeps prices suppressed (especially with Donald Trump's pro-drilling rhetoric). As we said several months ago though, the 2014/2015 oil rout did some major damage to the energy industry's capacity. The supply isn't nearly as firm as it seems on the surface right now. Once that reality is fully recognized, oil may well dish out a major bullish surprise. We just need to weed out the last little bit of crude's overhang, which like we said, has more to do with the U.S. dollar than anything else. That could happen in a matter of months, if not weeks. Again, the greenback's already gotten more help from rising interest rates than it ever really deserved. Just something to think about anyway. We'll keep tabs on it, and give you updates as the breakout develops... or doesn't develop. We'll see.