News Details – Smallcapnetwork
Interest Rate Rally Runs Out of Gas, Time for Gold to Shine Again
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February 2, 2024

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PDT

Good Monday afternoon everybody. How was your weekend? Or, maybe I should be asking how your Monday was, particularly if you made the RXi Pharmaceutical (RXII) trade we suggested in Friday's edition. It didn't take shape the way we were thinking/hoping it would, but it still did quite well today. Hopefully you got in and out, even if day-trading isn't your thing. The specifics: RXII opened at $1.71 on Monday, and ended up going as high as $2.93 before all was said and done. It was reeled in shortly after that early morning peak, but even if you didn't get out at the high, any exit above $2.05 would have translated into a 20% gain....and that's the low end of the potential upside you could have enjoyed. Odds are good most of you were able to get out at a better price than that. With that being said, we do want to let you know that members of the Under the Radar Movers service did a heck of a lot better. They made an exit at $2.05 (though some did even better), and with an entry price of $1.26 on November 17th, that translates into a gain of 62%. Not bad for three days work. And just for the record, yes, the URM people got a specific entry alert and a specific exit alert, to let them know it was time to get in and then time to get out. We would have liked to do the same for you guys, but we were already pushing our luck by poaching one of their ideas. You know how to not miss out on the next big trading idea, and get crystal clear entry and exit instructions? Become a subscriber to the Under the Radar Movers service. For less than a dollar a day, it's the best investment you'll make all year. Or, you can just keep listening to us tell you about the one that got away. Here's the deal. As far as the market goes, today's a cause for celebration - stocks hit record highs.... the NASDAQ and the S&P 500. Take a look. The S&P 500 cleared the ceiling at 2194, to close just a tad above 2198.18. The VIX also edged a little lower. On the surface, this is technically bullish. And who knows? Maybe this is the beginning of a monster rally. There was a serious lack of volume behind the move today though. Maybe that's because there's a holiday around the corner. Or, maybe it's just because there aren't a lot of believers here - we can't distinguish between the two based on what we see here. Unfortunately, the advent of the holiday lull is going to cloud the issue more than brings clarity to it. That's ok though. We'll have answers soon enough. Finally, we've been talking about the crazy rally the U.S. dollar has made over the course of the past couple of weeks. What we've not done is talk about the impact the dollar's appreciation has had on gold prices. In light of the fact that the dollar's flight looks like it's starting to rollover, though - and gold is subsequently starting to recover - now's the time to take a good look at both. Here's the comparison of the SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD) and the U.S. Dollar Index. It all makes perfect sense, really. Since gold is priced in U.S. dollars and the dollar's been rallying, that's worked against gold. So why should the rally reverse now? A couple of reasons. First and foremost, the soaring dollar is mostly the response to speculation that rates are going to rise. That's a reasonable assumption. The scope of the rally thus far has been in excess of what was necessary, however. That is to say, with the Fed hesitant to raise rates at all, the December rate hike is likely to be the last one we'll see for a while, but the market has priced in what seems to be the expectation of two or more rate hikes back to back. Once reality sets in and the dollar starts to ease off, that's going to let gold reverse course.... possibly for a while. The other reason gold may be at or near a bottom in conjunction with the greenback being at or near a top... gold prices are near a key Fibonacci retracement line. Actually, they're between a 38% retracement line and a 62% retracement line, and that range is where any reversal is apt to happen. Ideally gold prices would kiss the 68% retracement line and then bounce. We can't get that picky though, especially when we see on the chart below that there's also a horizontal floor at $1214/oz that's just been brushed. We don't know when or where it's going to happen, but we do think a reversal is in the cards, and it's due sooner than later. Once it starts, we expect it to move in a hurry. The $64,000 question is, what can you do about it? Well, there are a lot of ways to play a brewing rebound in gold, but we've got a specific one in mind. We're still doing some due diligence on the idea, so we're not quite ready to let the cat out of the bag just yet. It looks like we'll be able to wrap everything up by tomorrow afternoon though, which means we'll be able to name names on Wednesday morning. Look for a newsletter at the open that day rather than the close; we know a bunch of you will be busy or traveling by Wednesday afternoon. Until tomorrow....