Howdy folks. How was your Friday? Obviously it wasn't a great one for the market, but there are several reasons why other than the market is destined to move lower. That's not to say it won't move lower from here - it might. We're just saying don't jump to conclusions based on today's lull.
First though not foremost, today was an option expiration day. All those puts and calls require selling or exercising, and that can put pressure on a market.... bullish and bearish. Today's net effect looks like it was bearish, but come Monday, any such pressure will no longer be a factor.
Another modest possibility is the fact that with next week being a holiday week and trading effectively condensed to the first three trading days of the week, some people have every intention of taking the whole week off. Rather than stick with marginal positions for a whole week they're not even watching the market, they shed them.
The biggest reason of the three, though, we contend is the fact that both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ Composite bumped into major technical resistance. When push came to shove, the bulls weren't quite as bullish as they had been for the past week and a half.
Take a look at the daily chart of the S&P 500. Today's high was 2190, just a bit shy of the peak of 2194 reached in August.
The NASDAQ Composite DID bump into a key ceiling at 5343 today, and sure enough, peeled back.
Maybe it's nothing. Heck, we arguably should see a rally slow down at established technical ceilings - we know at least some sellers were waiting there, so it would be surprising (and maybe even a little concerning) if the indices just simply drifted past their resistance levels without a test. That could very well be indicative of a "last hurrah," like we talked about yesterday though. If the market can prove its mettle here on the front lines rather than perhaps luckily move above the ceiling, maybe it will be able to push past the ceiling and keep going without a setback first.
That's a big "if" though.
One thing I wouldn't be impressed by is the fact that both the VIX and the VXN broke below their respective floors. Expiration days can really skew option prices as well, and their drops are more likely to be a reflection of that than an indication that investors are thinking (or at least hedging) bullishly. Where the VXN and the VIX start and finish Monday will be far more telling.
Bottom line? I say we wait. That's tough to do, but it's the right thing to do.
We'll just plant this seed... now that the S&P 500 has found so much bullishness and is knocking on the door of an all-time high, we may want to consider the possibility that a floor is developing around 2150. That's where several moving average lines are about to converge.
That's something we wouldn't have thought possible just a few days ago, but charts don't lie. We can only play the hand we were dealt - not the one we thought we'd be dealt.
Again though, the best thing to do right now is probably nothing.
No commentary needed, but here's an updated version of the yield, dollar, and bond chart we've been watching for a while. This is gettin' a little bit tense.
Before we sign off for the week, we'll give you a pre-Thanksgiving freebie... a free stock pick that is. That stock is RXi Pharmaceuticals (RXII).
Take a look. After a miserable September and early October, things heated up for RXII this month. It's a near-perfect setup too, starting with some sideways movement to set up a technical base, or launchpad, and then pushing off of it this week. That pushoff is still picking up steam too, as volume starts to flow in.
Put a snapshot of this chart in your mental file, as this is the kind of setup that frequently results in a good thrust.
Now, one caveat/disclosure... RXi Pharmaceuticals is one of the holdings in the Under the Radar Movers' short-term portfolio. They got into it on Thursday, at a price of around $1.26. That means they're up about 27% as of today's close. With that kind of profit cushion, they've got a lot of wiggle room any newcomers wouldn't. In other words, they don't have to keep it on as short of a leash as you might want to. Still, we like the shape of the chart, and we especially like the thrust of RXII above its 50-day moving average line at $1.51.
Just a gift; we're feeling in a giving mood. I don't think the URM crowd will mind too much since, hey - they're already up 27% on the position.
If you'd like to get all these great trading ideas before they make their initial moves, become an Under the Radar Movers subscriber today. One good trade like RXII could more than cover your subscription cost, which is less than a dollar a day. Here's the deal.
Everyone have a great weekend. We'll be back in the saddle on Monday.