Good Monday afternoon everyone, and welcome back from the weekend.
Well, as has been the case about umpteen times since I don't know when, the market managed to reverse course again before a trend had a chance to get going in earnest. Today it was a bullish reversal of a budding bearish move, but considering stocks are still right where they were in late-2014, clearly we've seen just as many bearish reversals as we've seen bullish ones.
Whatever the case, while today's action pulled the S&P 500 back above one key level, it didn't clear THE big hurdle we'd need it to clear to get stocks over the hump as a whole.
We'll look at it all in detail in a moment. First, I want to show you an amazing chart some of you already know about, and a chart that'll have many of you kicking yourself.
Double Crown Doubles Up
Remember Double Crown Resources (DDCC)? You should. It's the small cap stock we suggested would make for a great trading idea last Tuesday, the 10th, following news that it's Translock2 commodity-shipping system had been awarded its patent. Since that day's open DDCC shares have gained 30%, but even if you got in at the high for the session you'd still be up more than 17%. It's now more than twice its value from a month ago.
That's impressive. And yet, it's not as impressive as the chart of Double Crown Resources you're about to see. Take a look.
When you hear the term "the chart's going parabolic," this is what people are talking about. As a described a week ago, DDCC looked like one of those names that once it got going there was no looking back. So far, that's how it's taking shape. It's not too often you see this amount of strength with this degree of volume for this long. Traders do indeed seem to be falling in love with the stock. It's not too late to jump in of you want in, but I think the clock is ticking.
As for the cause, well, like we discussed on Tuesday, I suspect investors are just putting two and two together here and simply realize the Translock2 system solves a lot of problems for sellers and buyers of commodities. I'd also be willing to bet this most recent strength is the result or rumors/whispers of a new deal for its technology. Or, maybe it's a new supply deal for the minerals/metals the company can supply. These kinds of moves are rarely a mere matter of luck.
We just wanted you to see the chart, to whet your appetite. If you didn't read it then, here's the SCN's first look at Double Crown Resources.
Stay tuned. This story is getting real good.
Meh
OK, the S&P 500 may have managed to pop today, but it was a fairly meaningless move.
The daily chart of the index below is what it is. The S&P 500 crossed back above the 50-day moving average line (purple) but only had to threaten the 20-day moving average line at 2073 for the buyers to back off. And back off they did. Take a look at today's volume. Not that last week's bearish days were high-volume affairs , but today's bullish volume was downright anemic... particularly for a Monday.
The NASDAQ didn't hit any technical walls, but it behaved about the same. More than that, the 20-day moving average line has crossed below the 100-day and 200-day moving average line (green) for the composite within the past couple of trading days, making it clear the short-term trend has taken a turn for the worst even if Monday was a bullish day.
Even if the S&P 500 manages to edge above its ceiling at 2073, until the NASDAQ clears its entanglement of resistance around 4810, stocks could still go either way.
Where's Oil Going to Stop?
Last but not least, I have to give credit where it's due. John Monroe over at the Elite Opportunity pretty much nailed it late last month when we suggested adding the ProShares Ultra DJ-UBS Crude Oil Fund (UCO) or the VelocityShares 3X Long Crude ETN (UWTI) to portfolios based on the likelihood of more upside from oil. Crude is up almost 11% since then. UCO is up 19% UWTI has gained 29% between then and now.
Could your portfolio have used a 29% winner with a holding period of less than a month?
In any case, here's exactly what John told EO member then, on April 21st:
"At this point, the play is clearly to the long side on pullbacks. Assuming the price of light crude continues to find strength along with the rest of the commodity markets, a patient entry into either UCO and/or UWTI is worth the speculation until a point in time oil potentially achieves XXXXX [removed by editor] level."
I suppose in retrospect John saw the cup and handle pattern crude oil had formed at the time... a clue many other traders including myself missed. Not John though. It's disgustingly annoying how good his "chart vision" is. Anyway, here's a retro-view of that chart, just so you know exactly what a cup and handle pattern is for future reference. Sure enough, once that brim line was broken it was off to the races.
The question now, of course, is where in the world crude oil is most apt to reach an insurmountable headwind? John pegged a target level a little more than three weeks ago; I had to remove that number from his comment. I tell you what though.... considering he hit the buying point for oil right on the money - at the breakout from the cup and handle pattern - it stands to reason his target on crude oil is spot on as well.
If you're just guessing as to when oil might peak, you need the Elite Opportunity newsletter. Here's how to get it, or cut and paste this link: https://www.smallcapnetwork.com/pages/SCNEO/v1/