News Details – Smallcapnetwork
It's "Wheels Up" for Oakridge Global Energy (OGES), En Route to Maximum Altitude
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February 2, 2024

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PDT

Good Tuesday afternoon, everybody, or good Wednesday morning for some of you. We actually don't have a lot to get through today, so this edition should be fairly short and sweet. Let's get the ball rolling with today's most important item, which is a look at last quarter's numbers from Featured Stock Oakridge Global Energy Solutions (OGES). Just the Beginning You may recall Oakridge Global Energy Solutions offered Q1 revenue guidance of $250,000 a couple of weeks ago, even before the quarter was over. As it turns out, the top line rolled in a little better than that, reaching $263,000 when all was said and done. That's fine. Gotta be honest though... the difference between $250,000 and $263,000 is irrelevant to me. It could have been $30,000 or $740,000, and I wouldn't be any more or any less impressed. As any proprietor can tell you, the first dollar of business is always the toughest - that's why they're usually framed - because the hardest part is getting started. It's all growth from here, now that the ball's rolling. I'm far more interested in where OGES is going to be a year from now, which should be at an annualized revenue pace of $140 million. Five years from now, that pace could reach $1 billion. That's why you'd want to own OGES here and now. Now, the difference between the long-term potential and last quarter's numbers is admittedly big. For those of you who know the Oakridge Global Energy story well, you already understand how the company is going to get from here to there. For those of you who are still unfamiliar with OGES though, it's best said like this - the company's current production capacity is nowhere near the production capacity it will have a year from now. It was during the first quarter that Oakridge Global Energy Solutions began the migration out of a 12,000 square foot facility into what will eventually be 350,000 square feet of manufacturing space. In the meantime, it didn't even begin making batteries until late in the quarter. Point being, the specific number from Q1 is meaningless. What matters is that there was a number, and that number has a path to getting bigger... soon. And it will. Remember, in late February the company reported it had secured more than $20 million worth of order commitments at the PGA Merchandise Show in Orlando. That's $20 million for a company that at the time didn't have any real inventory to speak of ready to deliver, and for a company that up until then was pretty much an unknown. Just think what kind of business it will be able to do now that it's a real company with real revenue driven by a real product. Oakridge Global Energy Solutions remains one of the best growth-opportunity stories we've seen in a long time. Here's the initial, in-depth look in case you missed it the first time around. Too Soon to Panic I don't want to downplay the potential risks that this week's lull could be an omen of a bigger pullback, but two tough days don't inherently mean a major correction is inevitable. In fact, the indices are still above some important support lines that would need to be breached first before we can even entertain the possibility that stocks are headed south. For the S&P 500, that line in the sand - one of them, anyway - is the 20-day moving average line currently at 2035. We can safely say now, though, that the more meaningful front line is going to be the 1994 area where a slew of potential support levels are about converge. If that floor fails, it's a serious problem. A break below 2035 would just be a red flag. Strangely enough, what would concern me most is if the VIX moves up and into and then beyond its big ceiling around 19.0. The NASDAQ Composite looks pretty similar, though I do want to point out it broke under its 200-day moving average line (green) at 4859 today. It's still got a big support level at 4786 and another technical floor at 4641 that could lend a helping hand if need be. Maybe those floors won't matter. Maybe they will. We'll see. Whatever the case, we can say with some certainty that until the S&P 500 hurdles the resistance level of 2078 and until the NASDAQ clears the 200-day moving average line again, there may not be any bullish bet worth making. What's interesting about this rollover effort is its timing. Q1 earnings season is about to begin. Some would say it's begun already. Either way, with a wave of earnings reports right around the corner and traders already scaling out of the market, it suggests investors are mentally prepared to see the earnings glass as half-empty even if it should be interpreted as half-full. It'd be nice to see a little more confidence at this time. Underscoring this general malaise is a stark degree of across-the-board weakness. There was NO sector or even market cap group up today. Very few industries made progress today. Usually there's at least something trying to move higher. Then again, with the S&P 500 currently valued at a trailing P/E of 20.0 and a forward-looking P/E of 17.3 -- and that forward-looking P/E presumes a return to modest profitability for the energy sector -- once again I have doubts there's any real room for a whole lot of upside. My concern is underscored by today's legitimate chatter that the economy didn't actually grow at all last quarter. That's a conversation we'll have to have another time though. Readers Sound Off Several days ago we delivered you guys an op-ed about what's since become a moot argument between the FBI and Apple (AAPL). Long story made short, the government agency wanted Apple to help it break into a locked iPhone, and Apple politely said "that's not what we do, for a couple of reasons." Our stance was, though we supported Apple's unwillingness to do the FBI's tough job for it that it couldn't do on its own, we also supported the FBI's decision to not share with Apple how it finally managed to work past the iPhones native security features. Civil liberties are a two-way street. In any case, we invited our readers to sound off on the story, and you did. We're going to start sharing some of the more relevant ones just to advance the discussion. Today's the first. James writes: "Where would this country be if all the companies asked to assist the government during world war 2 refused. This is the same situation, since we are engaged in a war on terror. Apple should have complied immediately, instead they made a grand play to cuddle themselves up to their customer base. I for one have sold my positions in Apple and have gone Android." Thanks James. Valid point. I think the counter-point to your case would be that the participation in the WW2 effort was all transparent, and didn't potentially threaten civil rights. It's my understanding that the FBI didn't even know what it might find in the phone in question, if it found anything. That's a concern, because the logic behind that request could then be applied in other instances as "Well, the FBI didn't have to prove something useful was in the iPhone to get a warrant, so it shouldn't have to prove probable-cause to get non-digital search warrants in the future." That's a stretch, I know, but laws are increasingly stretched and twisted by good lawyers. Your point is well-taken though. The war on terror is an actual war, in effect if not in a legal sense. That's got to give the government a little more leeway in how it acquires intelligence. Maybe this should have become an NSA issue for that reason? I'm just glad the FBI found a way of cracking the security so Apple didn't have to, putting the company in a compromising position by doing so. Alright, we'll close it out there. Talk to you tomorrow.