News Details – Smallcapnetwork
Traders Still Love This Very-Hated Market
/

February 2, 2024

/

PDT

Howdy folks. How was your Tuesday? Well, the day wasn't terrible, but it sure wasn't a great one. Worse, the NASDAQ's measurable loss finally pulled it below a semi-important support level, and put it within reach of a major support area we've talked about a couple of times of late. We're still holding above that make-or-break floor, but it's not too soon to start making some plans in case thing turn a little uglier. In fact, let's just start there today. One Small Step May Not Be So Small Talk about on the fence! The S&P 500 ended the day at 2090.7, pretty much in line with where the index closed on Monday, where it closed on Friday, and where it closed on Thursday. It's not progress, but at least the 20-day moving average line at 2076 is holding up as a floor. The VIX is similarly struggling to move above its 20-day moving average line at 14.2. I could say a lot about how there's a huge technical floor around 2020, but that's irrelevant until the S&P 500 breaks below the 2076 mark... if it breaks under it. Here's the daily chart of the NASDAQ Composite. It doesn't look as compelling, having broken under the 20-day moving average line at 4901. I'd still wait on the NASDAQ to break below its last-ditch support area around 4764 before assuming the worst. The VXN should have moved above its ceiling around 19.0 if and when that happens, confirming the composite's meltdown. The VIX will need to thrust above its ceiling at 16.2 as well before we sweat things. Better to mentally prepare for it now, however, than wing it if and when the time comes. You'll notice the volume behind today's weakness wasn't particularly strong. In fact... We've taken a look at the NYSE's breadth and depth chart recently. But, it bears another look today just because it's far more bullish than the market's tepid results today would suggest. Read 'em and weep. On Tuesday, the NYSE's advancers outpaced the decliners at a ratio of 3.3 to 1.0. The NYSE's up volume was better than the down volume by a ratio of 3.5 to 1.0. Even the NASDAQ's advancers/decliners were healthy... a surprising factoid given how the composite lost a fair amount of ground (-0.15%) today. I also want to show you the relative sector performance chart of all the major sectors. I know it was only yesterday we showed it to you, and things couldn't have changed that much in the meantime. We're seeing the rotation play out though. Consumer staples, telecom, healthcare, and (almost) utilities were in the red today, while industrials, financials, energy, and discretionary stocks were up. Broadly speaking, that indicates a "risk on" mentality... one that started to show up a couple of weeks ago. The only sector missing from the "up" sectors is the technology sector, and that may have more to do with poor earnings results than pessimism. It's an interesting -- and maybe even a little frustrating -- turn of events for value-minded investors who know the market is too overvalued for its own good. It's what the market is doing though. All the same, the NASDAQ's key technical breakdown is fairly big red flag in my book. It'll be interesting to see how investors end up seeing the glass... as half-empty, or half full. Off and Running Since we're already revisiting some things we've recently talked about, let's go head and update our bullish looks at coal stocks and aluminum stock. They're interesting, because they were the day's two biggest winners. The Dow Jones Coal Index (DJUSCL) was up 8.1% today, and the Dow Jones Aluminum Index (DJUSAL) gained 4.9%. Our recent look at coal stocks was on the 18th, when the index was trading at 31.9, and going strong. Today it's at 35.0, up nearly 10%. What's interesting is how the most recent leg of the rally has happened without any real help from a falling U.S. dollar; the dollar hasn't made any bearish progress since late March. As for aluminum, as of our first look from the 14th the Dow Jones Aluminum Index was at 83.0, knocking on the door of a ceiling at 84.6. It's cleared the ceiling in the meantime, currently valued at 88.4, up 6%. Here's the aluminum price chart from Kitco Metals (www.kitcometals.com). As suspected almost two weeks ago, aluminum was en route to the upper edge of an expanding trading range. It almost got all the way there before slowing down. This is where the real rest begins. If you haven't made a play on aluminum yet, I don't know that I'd bother now, as you don't have the same profit cushion those readers who pulled the trigger back on the 14th do. If aluminum prices do end up punching through the upper boundary of that trading range, however, I can see it turning into a melt-up pretty quickly. I'll keep my eyes peeled for any other budding breakouts like the two above.