Howdy folks. How was your Tuesday? It wasn't a great one for the overall market -- the indices mostly just drifted sideways (again), as traders continue to grapple with valuations. Nobody's saying that, but that's what's going on. The funny thing is, the valuation problem quietly got a little worse within the past few days while nobody was looking.
We'll look at the broad market in a moment. The first thing we want to do today is make sure you saw the news from Sack Lunch Productions (SAKL).
Long story made short, though the focus on Sack Lunch Productions to date has focused on the growth of its events like Slide the City (a 1000-foot slip-n-slide) and The Dirty Dash (a foot race through the mud), that's not all the company does. It's also the majority owner of a publicly-traded salon holding company called Green Endeavors Inc (GRNED), which operates three eco-friendly salons in Utah. That company has driven $1.65 million worth of revenue over the course of the first six months of 2016, which is 13% better than the top line tally at this point a year ago. As majority owner, that also benefits SAKL.
I think Bryan Murphy summed it up nicely at the website today, explaining how the salon business isn't cyclical the way Sack Lunch's outdoor events are. This spreads the revenue stream out from Sack Lunch's busiest period -- the third quarter -- to other times of the year.
Sure, it all gets booked within a year, but uneven cash flow can be distracting. With GRNED driving some cash flow when the event business is slow, SAKL can focus on building the biggest business it can for the all important third quarter.
Murphy also pointed out Green Endeavors' current sales and earnings growth trend puts it on pace to swing to a profit early next year if not late this year. That could become a night-and-day difference for Sack Lunch Productions.
Chart-wise, I thought Pressure BioSciences (PBIO) took an interesting turn today.
You may recall this is the stock we deemed worth keeping a close eye on simply because it was putting a ton of pressure on a horizontal resistance line at $0.45. It still hasn't cleared that line. In fact, it's peeled back from it. It's still dropping bullish hints, however. Take today for instance. A pullback to the 200-day moving average line (green) rekindled the bullish undertow and pushed the stock back within reach of the ceiling at $0.45.
It's just an awful lot of technical support for a stock with a great backstory. And if you missed the backstory, here you go.
Bottom line? All this consolidation is likely setting up an explosive move, with the trigger being that next trade above $0.45.
Anyway, about this market...
I'm going to give full credit where it's due - the chart you're about to see was borrowed (with permission) from today's edition of the Under the Radar Movers newsletter, in which editor James Brumley took a detailed look at some long-overdue sector rotation. Read 'em and weep.
Sorry I can't provide the full commentary the URM newsletter did about the changing undertow for the broad market. But, it wouldn't be fair to those subscribers to interpret everything or add the fundamental aspect to the discussion that the Under the Radar Movers crowd has paid for. They won't mind me giving you a taste, however. Even just a quick look at the chart makes it clear some former leaders are starting to lag, and some former laggards are starting to lead. It's the first time in a long time we've seen such divergences. It's what you'd expect to see at a major turning point for the overall market.
I'll also throw in the fact that Brumley is going to be diving into the fundamentals of each key sector within the next few days, slicing and dicing earnings growth and valuations.
I've never seen so much detailed sector analysis from anywhere else. I don't know how the URM crew does it. Then again, I don't really care - I'm just enjoying having a better feel for the market's hot spots and cold spots. The Under the Radar Movers team saw one of the market's biggest earnings liabilities for Q2, and sure enough, that sector has started to pay the price.
It matters. The URM newsletter had an interesting statistics today: 40% of an individual stock's gain or loss is attributable to its sector's performance. If you get the sector right, the battle is almost halfway won.
And, you don't need me to tell you some sectors can rise while others fall.
If you'd like to start getting more out of the market by focusing on sectors doing well and avoiding sectors that aren't, the Under the Radar Movers service is second to none on that front. It's definitely worth doing.
As for the market's overall tide (which still accounts for about 60% of an individual stock's movement), we're still getting hints the bulls are simply out of gas.
Take a look. The S&P 500 may have closed a little higher on Tuesday, but there was no zeal or volume behind it. What happened to Friday's bullishness? Sure, the upper Bollinger band may have something to do with the pause here, but it doesn't matter. If the buyers can't shove the index up through the resistance of that upper band line, there's a reason. For that matter, the short doji bar today is a subtle clue of a transition.
You can also see the VIX is finding support of its own. Maybe it can't go any lower either.
I know some people will counter there is no absolute floor for the VIX, so it could conceivably keep pushing lower and allow the S&P 500 to keep edging higher. That's not exactly true though. There is a limit of sorts for the VIX's low because there's a psychological limit to how bullish traders are willing to get using options [which determines the price of the VIX]. That limit isn't etched in stone, and it will change from time to time. We have to be at or near an absolute limit right now though. It may not necessarily mean stocks are ready to completely unravel, but it sure doesn't mean there's room to rally.
The red flag will be the point when (or if) the VIX moves above 15.0 and the S&P 500 beaks below its lower band line, currently at 2153. Until then, let's just relax, and maybe watch some Olympics. Michael Phelps is swimming this evening, which is always fun.