In the grand scheme of things, Friday's action was oddly uneventful. Being a quadruple witching day (where a whole slew of options and futures expire), we can at the very least expect a surge in volume, and we can realistically expect that activity to push the market higher or lower to some degree. At the same time, being St. Patrick's Day, based on the average return over the past several St. Patrick's Days, we had an 80% chance that the S&P 500 would log some sort of gain... a gain of about 0.72%. We didn't see any of it. In fact, though volume was higher, it wasn't remarkably higher in light of its potential. We suspect -- and maybe even fear -- there are bigger things going on in investors' heads right now, not the least of which is noticing that although stocks are well up since early November, neither earnings nor economic activity are showing decided growth yet. Did traders jump the gun? The latest batch of this concern was whipped up today when the Federal Reserve posted its capacity utilization and industrial productivity data for February. It wasn't horrifying, but it wasn't exactly exciting.. One would have thought by now we'd see both data sets making firm progress. But, no dice. The challenge here is the time it takes for a policy to take hold. Trump's only been in office for less than two months. It's a little too soon to say he can or can't do what he says he can do. Investors have already made the bet that he can, and will. Anyway, congrats to all of you who are also members of the Under the Radar Movers service. You guys locked in a 22% gain on a short position in Qualstar (QBAK) today, which is to say you made money by betting it would move lower. We know 22% isn't a monster-sized winner, but here's the thing... Brumley and his team only entered the trade yesterday. In other words, those folks put 22% in their pocket in just 24 hours. The URM team's posted bigger gains in the past, but not many of them have moved that much, that fast. As much as I'd like to chalk it up to the luck o' the Irish, I know for a fact that Brumley is only about 1/16th Irish. More than that though, I've seen him and the Under the Radar Movers crew do this kind of thing too many times over the course of the past year to think it's luck. It's skill, but more than that, it's experience. If you don't believe it, you can look back at all the URM's past trades at its information page to see for yourself. In fact, I was doing a little math with all the trades the URM service has suggested since May of last year... when the first newsletter was published. Allocating just 5% of a portfolio to each idea would have translated into a 43% gain overall. My math didn't factor in trading commissions, but at $5 a pop now with most online brokers, that's pretty much negligible. My point is, the Under the Radar Movers newsletter has done it again. If you're not a subscriber, you're missing out. Here's how you can get it for yourself. As far as the market is concerned, I think we can basically disregard today as any indication of the market's health... not that Friday's action indicated much. It looks like most people got their St. Patrick's Day celebrations started pretty early, perhaps realizing the quadruple-witching effect was going to keep any action rather well contained. Still, where we finished Friday's action is where we'll have to start Monday's trading, so it's at least worth a look to see where we left off. That was in the middle, by the way. As James Brumley over at the aforementioned Under the Radar service explained in his newsletter today [he makes our daily chart of the S&P 500 too], the S&P 500 index is above a key support level at 2368, but clearly isn't interested in even testing the upper boundary made by the upper 20-day Bollinger band. Like him, we still think the big risk here is to the downside, but until the floors are clearly broken we're not taking any chances. The bulls have just been too persistent, even if their persistence is poorly justified. That being said, it's curious how the Dow Jones Industrial Average seems to have stalled right at the 21,000... a big round number, which tend to be floors and ceilings for the indices. And when I say stalled at the 21,000 mark, I mean stalled at 21,000. Take a look. The precision with which the rally stopped at that level (save the one short-lived thrust above it three weeks ago) is uncanny, perhaps indicating traders have drawn a mental line in the sand there. It was John Monroe over at the Elite Opportunity Pro newsletter who may have the best advice for all of us. He wrote today: "Basically, we got a test of the March 1st high this week, which suggests at some point soon these markets are likely headed higher. However, it would be absolutely no surprise whatsoever to see these markets move lower as soon as next week, and either test the two short-term lows I've pointed to here, or even breach them to the downside before the markets could be in position to stage another sharp leg up. We've seen it time and time again, whereby the markets head fake in one direction, only to move sharply in the other, so let's sit tight and remain opportunistic, and not get too involved anywhere in the middle right now." Sorry we couldn't include John's chart he was referencing, but we're already pushing our luck borrowing his words. Besides, it was the very last thing he said we want to stress to you today..... to "not get too involved anywhere in the middle right now." I understand exactly what he means, and why he said it. This isn't a time to trading in the middle of swings expecting a big move. This is a time to bet against the continuation of an extreme move, anticipating a reversal. Get in, and get out. That strategy may change soon, but for now, it's been working better than anything else. You only have to look at the 22% score the Under the Radar Movers crew scored today to see that. With that as the backdrop, it doesn't take long to recognize on our chart of the S&P 500 it's very much in a middle ground right now, trying to figure out which way it wants to go. While it's usually better to be proactive with a trade, in this case, the smart-money thing to do is to be reactive. Finally, we'll leave you with an updated look at the average day-to-day gain for the S&P 500, and how that compares to where the index is so far for 2017. As you can see, though March starts out bullishly, it doesn't end quite as well. April's usually a good month though. Of course, as much off the beaten path as the S&P 500 is now, there's no telling what the next few weeks hold. It's this chart that underscores the notion we discussed above -- either get in for a short-term swing, or get in for the true long-haul. Any intermediate-term trade (as in a few weeks) is apt to be nothing but a headache. Let's skip the trading headaches for the time being. There'll be enough headaches to go around tomorrow morning following this evening's festivities. Have a fun AND SAFE St. Patrick's Day.