News Details – Smallcapnetwork
What the Pros Are Saying About the Market Now
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February 2, 2024

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PDT

When I start to write this newsletter every afternoon, I almost always know what we're going to say to you. Today, however, threw me for a loop. While I'm not surprised great jobs numbers sparked a big rally that at least pushed the S&P 500 into new-multi-month-high territory, I find myself very conflicted about how we truly see where the market is going from here. And then it hit me like a ton of bricks... we've got access to some of the world's most brilliant minds, in-house and elsewhere. Why not just collect some of their perspectives and let you start piecing together your own thoughts? So we did. In no particular order below, here's a look the best of the best expert opinions about the market after today. As is so often the case, it was the Elite Opportunity Pro's John Monroe that had the most common sense and eye-opening view. He said: ".... The weekly chart of the NASDAQ Composite and the monthly chart of the Russell 2000 below, however, paint a bit of a different picture. As you can see, when you compare both of these to that of the S&P 500, both have been lagging in recent months when you compare them to the very long-term landscape of the markets. Not necessarily what we'd really like to be seeing right now, but we don't think it means the DOW and the S&P 500 won't make new highs. What these charts are revealing to us though are some key technical issues that will help determine just how high these markets really want to go, because neither index is even remotely close to new all-time highs. In short, we do believe the NASDAQ will finds its way to the trend line you see here, which sits just above 5,000, and we do believe the Russell will find its way to all of those arrows just above the [removed by editor] level. Depending on where the S&P 500 is when either of these events take place, and more importantly if both of those events take place around the same time the S&P 500 is hovering around that [removed by editor] level, it's likely going to be one of the most extremely pivotal technical events to take place in quite some time." I think John is the most right about how we should be seeing things right now. That is, we don't really know what the future holds. What should be happening isn't actually happening, but it could happen in the (very) foreseeable future. That could be bad for stocks. Notice, however, John didn't preclude a rally at the all-important pivot. John's not alone with his potentially bullish thesis. A guy named Simon Maierhofer (you may know from iSpyETF) was doing some digging of late, and found that the crazy three days of extreme bullishness on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday of last week are often big-time bullish clues, and today's huge rally is just a confirmation of that bullish possibility. He cited the Profit Radar Report to explain: "From February 12-17, the S&P 500 gained more than 1.5% a day for three days in a row. Since 1970, this has happened only eight other times. One year later, the S&P 500 traded higher every time, with an average gain of 19.16%." He also acknowledged, however, there's a difference between last week's kickoff rally and the February surge. The February move took shape after the S&P 500 hit a two-year low. Conversely, last week's big advance got the index within striking distance of a record high. That reality may have been a big part of the reason James Brumley of our Under the Radar Movers newsletter broke away from his usual stock-specific commentary to dish this message out to URM subscribers: "As you can see, the index punched through a big ceiling at 2120 today following a very strong June employment report. On the surface this looks great... a textbook breakout. What too many years of experience has taught us, however, is to not trust these moves, as the market has a way of trying to fool as many people as possible as much of the time as possible. What better way to fool a huge swath of traders than to make the masses think the next big leg of a rally is underway and then WHAM! Down stocks go. Whatever the case, between the VIX being near an absolute floor at 12.9 and the S&P 500 within reach of its upper Bollinger band at 2135 ... which just so happens to be the mid-2015 all-time peak for the S&P 500. It just all seems a little fishy. Tread lightly here. " He's right. And for the record, none of the prior eight times the S&P 500 logged three huge sessions in a row (like it did two weeks ago) started out this close to a record high. The only time it was close was in 1984. Moreover, I don't think any of those other times the S&P 500 was already sitting on a trailing P/E of 21.2 and a questionable forward-looking P/E of 17.0. It all reminds me of something I read in my subscription to The Future Investor newsletter a few days ago. It said: "On the weekly chart of the S&P 500 below we've added the index's trailing and forward-looking P/E ratios. The different levels are based on the assumption that the S&P 500 will earn the expected $28.32 for Q2, and that wherever we're going to go, we'll get there before Q3's earnings season starts in October. The trailing P/E levels are in red, and the forward-looking P/E levels are in yellow. This is probably the biggest disparity between trailing earnings and forward-looking earnings I've seen in a while... as in years. Counting Q2's expected $28.32 in profits for the S&P 500, the index has earned $100.79 for the past four quarters. But, it's expected to earn $125.65 for the next four quarters, meaning earnings are expected to grow about 25% for the coming twelve months. If oil continues to rebound, it will be possible, though still a stretch. As for the valuation scenario, to the extent it matters -- which isn't much -- the average forward-looking P/E is 14.2 (for the past ten years), while the average trailing P/E for the timeframe has been 16.7. Based on the forward-looking valuation, a pullback to..." I suppose that's the big question here... can stocks really shrug off the fundamentals (which are just so-so right now) and valuations (which are just plain ridiculous right now) and forge ahead? If they do, it won't be 2006-2007 all over again. It'll be 1999 all over again. Here's the thing - whether it made sense or not, 1999 was a great year for stocks. You wouldn't want to miss that ride if that's what's in the cards. What amazed me about all the opinions above -- and there were a lot more I couldn't pass along due to time and space constraints -- is how all these factors work together. The technicals jibe with the fundamentals, and the news/rhetoric jibes with the technicals. If you're not paying attention to all of them, not only are you getting surprised on a regular basis, you're missing trading opportunities. To that end, while I love my membership to all of the SmallCap Network's premium services because each fills a niche, I think the Elite Opportunity Pro is still the top choice for most traders simply because it's the most all-encompassing one, proving to be a powerful short-term and long-term tool. And, you don't need me to tell you John's had his finger on the market's pulse better than anybody has a right to. You can harness that power for yourself by becoming an EO Pro member.