Hello friends and fellow traders, and welcome to the weekend. Everybody got big plans? Between the post-inauguration news coverage on Friday, my anniversary on Saturday, and a couple of football games on Sunday, my weekend is pretty well packed - I'll be glad to get things started again on Monday.
There's something all of us need to put on our calendar next week though, and that's the beginning of Q4's earnings season on Tuesday when Alcoa (AA) reports its numbers. [Where does the time go?]
Since this may be the last chance we get to do it, we want to give you a preview and primer for the upcoming earnings season.
As of the latest look, the pros believe the S&P 500 earned $30.46 for the quarter. That's 32% better than the year-ago total, though bear in mind that year-ago figure was abnormally low. In the grand scheme of things, the lofty expectation for the quarter just extends a long-term trend. Take a look.
Point being, don't get too excited about the big expected jump - we're just back to normal.
That being said, with that kind of turnaround in the cards, it should make you curious as to how and why that's going to happen. To get a grip on that information you really have to drill down into each sector's earnings outlook. That's what we've got for you below. The table shows you the year-over-year earnings changes, past and projected, for all ten key sectors.
Clearly energy and the closely-related materials sector are driving the bulk of the projected growth, but don't read too much into the triple-digit growth expectations. Remember, those companies were absolutely crushed and dipped into the red ink a year or more ago, so even a small improvement looks relatively -- in percentage terms -- significant.
All the same, it's encouraging to see the energy sector and materials sector back in the black.
Also worth noting are the huge expectations for earnings growth from the healthcare sector.
We've talked about it (ok, griped about it) before, but it merits another round of the same now... the pros keep expecting healthcare bottom lines to soar in spite of the fact that the sector has failed to meet such lofty expectations over the course of the past two years.
We didn't have time to do it today, but we made time because it's just that important. What I'm talking about is a closer look at the healthcare sector's past and projected earnings, using the S&P 500 Healthcare Sector as our proxy.
Just for perspective, analysts were looking for the S&P 500 Healthcare Sector to earn $12.06 in the third quarter, and it ended up only earning $10.69 for Q3. My question is, if these companies couldn't get the job done then, why would they now? Has anything actually changed in the past three months that would help these companies? If anything, I'd say the prospect of a Trump Presidency and his mission to lower healthcare costs will only put pressure on the industry's margins.
I also have to think the market's underestimating the discretionary sector.
There's more we could say, but we'll save it for a future edition. We just wanted to lay the foundation for you with today's look, so you're mentally prepared for the insanity that's sure to start early next week.
Before we close things out for the day and the week, we're going to do something we usually make a point of not doing - talking about an individual company's results and prospects. Today, we just have to.
The company in question is Netflix (NFLX). Yes, Netflix just wrapped up a quarter that saw its best subscriber growth ever, and revenue once again moved to a record. Netflix is even profitable, even if only 'just barely.' The business model has been proven, and now just needs to be tweaked. NFLX shares are also at record highs, up 5% since the company unveiling last quarter's numbers.
We get all that. The question we have is, is anybody looking closer at how much debt and content liabilities Netflix is taking on to build its business? For that matter, has anybody noticed how its free cash flow is not only negative, but is getting increasingly negative?
I know you have to spend money to make money, and sometimes you have to struggle in order to lay the foundation for success later. Netflix is no spring chicken though - it's established, but it's "not there yet." Our concern is simply that debt, liabilities, and losses are getting bigger at a faster pace than sales or profits are.
The $64,000 question is, how long can that go on?
Just to help paint the picture (and to make sure I wasn't seeing things that weren't there), we made a chart of all the aforementioned data, looking at how it's morphed over time. We're not crazy. [Just click on the chart to see the full-screen image.]
Maybe Reed Hastings has a plan. I don't know. That's the problem. He's talked about moving toward better profitability by 2018, but when you look at how quickly all the content liabilities have grown -- along with debt -- you have to wonder exactly how that's going to happen. At some point, costs have to stop rising while revenue continues to rise.
Now, we know this is the kind of information and perspective you don't get anywhere else. That's why we give it to you. Thing is, this is nothing compared to the insights John Monroe and his crew at the Elite Opportunity Pro team are dishing out to their subscribers every single day. The new stock pick the EO Pro newsletter gave me today was.... well, all I can say is, wow. John just "gets it" when he's dissecting a company and deciding whether it's worth owning or not. If you're not an Elite Opportunity Pro subscriber, you're missing out.