News Details – Smallcapnetwork
Q2 Earnings Nowhere Near as Good as They Were Supposed to Be
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February 2, 2024

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PDT

Happy hump-day everyone. Before I get a chance to forget, be sure to be on the lookout tomorrow morning for a new trading idea. I think we'll be sending it shortly before the open. It's not a complicated idea. In fact, the company's new product is quite simple. There's a bit of a backstory to go along with it though, so to not give you too much in one shot tomorrow, I think we should go ahead and paint part of the picture today. Are you a Netflix subscriber? Statistically speaking, if you live in the United States you probably are. And, you also like your Netflix service, perhaps so much so you've even managed to cut the cord. Here's the thing about Netflix.... when it was the only game in town, of course people loved it. There was nothing else to compare it to. With the advent of Hulu though, and then Amazon Prime's on-demand-video offer, Netflix started to lose some of its luster. It was still the king of the hill, but not bulletproof. Then earlier this year something interesting almost happened. Apple began work on a 'lite' version of a cable service that would have been a true and complete alternative to what traditional cable companies deliver. Rather than 60+ channels -- most of which you don't watch -- Apple was going to serve up between 30 and 40 channels which included network broadcasts (CBS, NBC, ABC, FOX). It's this network programming that's kept most people hooked on cable. Apple ended up not going through with the planned service because one of the networks didn't want to play, but the fact that it was interested in IPTV cable at all was a serious shot across the bow of the entire industry. In the meantime, SlingTV and Sony Vue have taken the step Apple didn't take, and I'd argue taken one step beyond that. Both of those over-the-top TV programming services offer different packages of different sets of channels, and all of those packages include some degree of network broadcasts. It's still not an outright "a la carte" option for TV viewers, on a channel-by-channel basis. But, with each evolution of the idea it becomes clear consumers are getting more and more choice with their cable TV options. Something close to an a la carte option isn't too far down the road. Maybe it will be mini-bundles, like an all-kids package, or an all-sports package, for just a few bucks each per month. Not only will that put pressure on the likes of Netflix -- which doesn't actually offer any choice of programming -- it's going to put some serious pressure on cable companies like Comcast and Time Warner. Of course, it should. With the advent of more specialized, customized broadcasting on the radar, would-be players in the television arena are now asking themselves the logical question.... how can we get into the TV game to secure our spot in the new era? The company we're going to introduce tomorrow has an answer. Its technology is apt to be the one that deals the death blow to cable television as we know it, as it allows pretty much anyone to develop their own customized over-the-top television service. Keep that in mind until tomorrow morning, when we finish the story. In the meantime, let's quickly recap Q2's earnings season thus far. As of the most recent look, Standard & Poor's says the S&P 500 is on pace to post per-share income of $27.22 for the second quarter of 2016. That's well down the prior/initial forecast for a profit of $28.09, though it's about 4% better than the $26.14 the S&P 500 earned in the second quarter of 2015. The long-term estimates (through the end of 2017) were also dialed back, ramping up the forward-looking P/E ratio to 17.3. The trailing P/E now stands at 21.7. I hate to be the one to say I told you so, but, I told you so. The $27.22 figure is with about 70% of the S&P 500's constituents reporting in too, so it's not like it will be able to radically improve between now and the end of earnings season. As much as the experts have reeled in their 2017 profit outlooks, I still can't see the market actually reaching those lofty earnings projections for 2017. The really interesting part about Q2's earnings season to-date? It's about as uneven as I've seen any earnings season unfurl in long time. By that I just mean some sectors did very well, and others did very poorly. Most of the time they're all in the same basic boat, but this time around was a real all-or-nothing affair. It was James Brumley of Under the Radar Movers who brought the scope of this disparity to my attention today. He made a couple of tables for URM members that really paint a picture of where each sector is right now in terms of earnings growth and valuation. Unfortunately, I can't pass all that data along to you, as valuable as it may be. It just wouldn't be fair to the current Under the Radar Movers subscribers. Brumley did send over the tables with the most valuable piece of the data hidden though, to give you a taste of where things were, where they are, and where they're going. Take a look. You can see the value of this data. Some sectors are worth owning, and some aren't. In fact, most of them are arguably not worth owning right now. I'll just add there's only one sector the Under the Radar team is truly bullish on right now for bigger-picture reasons. The other nine are take-it-or-leave it affairs. All the trades in the URM's long-term portfolio are based on more detailed industry-level data, and are often bullish despite the broad sector those industries are in. Those are called strategic positions, taking advantage of special market situations or trends. The Under the Radar Movers newsletter has really helped me get a firm grip on the market's hot spots and cold spots. The data above is just a small sample of how it does so. If you'd like to add that weapon to your trading arsenal, here's how.