Bingo. Though it took some work (and a renewed effort in the middle of the week), the market's key indices have cleared a key resistance level. There are still plenty more ceilings above, so don't get too excited just yet. All big moves start out with that first step though. The daily chart of the S&P 500 is what it is. With the close of 1951.7 on Thursday the index has managed to move above a horizontal ceiling at 1949, and the 50-day moving average line (purple) at the same level. The next stop is 1983, give or take. That's where a minor floor that extends back to late last year now lies, and it's where the upper 20-day Bollinger band will be on Friday. It's also the lowest close the VIX has made in weeks, pulling the volatility index below a key support line at 19.5. It's got some room to keep moving lower too. With all of that being said, I really want to go back to Wednesday's bar and take a closer look at it, since I believe it's the root of our current, renewed uptrend, and is worth remembering for future reference. As you can see on the daily chart above, things didn't look so good on Tuesday and at mid-day on Wednesday. The market was peeling back after bumping into some technical resistance on Monday, and the bears had just as much reason to take charge as the bulls did. All it took, however, was a kiss of the 20-day moving average line at 1898.6 to reverse the downtrend. The end result was a hammer-shaped bar, with an open and close near the high, and a long tail in between. Remember this particular pattern and its circumstances, because reversals that start out as hammers tend to be pretty reliable (particularly when they're prompted by an encounter with a major moving average line). While the S&P 500 reached new multi-week highs on Thursday, the NASDAQ Composite didn't. Still, the NASDAQ managed to make a new high for the week, and did so by pushing up and off of support at the 20-day moving average line. That's at least partially bullish. The big line in the sand for the composite, however, is still around 4641. That's the early-February peak, and where the NASDAQ's 50-day moving average line will be by Friday. Don't jump to any conclusions yet. While the bulls have the edge, in addition to the fact that both of our two key indices could face some serious resistance as soon as tomorrow you'll also notice there wasn't a lot of volume behind the gains today. We're going to need more participation than this if we're to achieve escape velocity. From this point forward - and for a while - we have to be prepared for sudden headwinds even if the market manages to keep making progress. It's going to be tough pin-pointing exactly where the rallies should start and stop, and I fear it's going to be an intraday thing rather than an end-of-day thing. If that's what it takes to make any money by trading the market though, then that's what it takes. Figuring out where the market's going to hit a wall isn't your thing? I get it. If you want help in the near-term navigation department, John Monroe maps out a plausible path for the key indices almost every single day. In fact, he explicitly pegged a likely trouble spot for the NASDAQ Composite today, and I 100% agree with him. What's the target? Well, I can't tell you that. I can tell you, however, you can always get John's latest support and resistance levels by getting the EO newsletter on a daily basis. I'll also add it could be a long and choppy road all the way up through the upper edge of the S&P 500's thick band of resistance, around 2070. I know I wouldn't want to navigate those waters without the Elite Opportunity's help, particularly because that whole zone will be peppered with good trading opportunities. Here's how to become an EO member, or cut and paste this link: https://www.smallcapnetwork.com/pages/SCNEO/v1/ U.S. Dollar on the Fence Remember a few day ago (the 19th, to be specific) we said it looked like the U.S. dollar was attempting to roll over again and renew the downtrend it started in late January? Yeah, well, the call didn't pan out - the U.S. Dollar Index started to move higher again the next day, and has been drifting higher ever since. It looks like it's poised to roll over again now though, if.... well, the chart below tells the tale. If the floor at 97.2 fails to hold the index up again, I can see another round of selling taking shape. You'll also notice the 100-day moving average line (gray) did a good job of quelling the rally effort and setting up the potential pullback. I just wanted to give you a heads-up on the whole thing, since there are some far-reaching implications with a falling dollar... and most of them are good ones. We'll talk more about it if and when the need arises. Bullishness Ahead? Last but not least, I don't know how many of you saw this bearish call for the month of March from Tom DeMark today. But, I did, and it got me thinking - I tend to disagree. Don't get me wrong. DeMark's a smart guy, and he may well be vindicated when it's all said and done. The thing is, if you look long enough and hard enough, you can make a chart tell you whatever you want it to tell you. I have a sneaking suspicion that's what DeMark did. I'm not immune to the same pitfall, mind you, which at least adds a question mark to what I'm about to show you. But, I'm adding this chart to today's newsletter without any bias whatsoever; the calendar is the calendar. The graph speaks for itself. March and April ARE usually good months for the market, and we've got a ton of ground to make up for after a lousy January. And if you think the bullish tendency for March and April is skewed by bullish years, think again. Even in bearish years (as represented in red by the chart below), March isn't a bad month... and it's a really good two months in bullish years. I only throw in this detail because it would be easy to dismiss the bullish March/April tendency in 2016 by saying it doesn't apply in the wrong kind of environment. The tendency applies in almost all market environments. We'll take a look at this chart in the future to see if the tendency is passing the test.