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VOLUME 08 : ISSUE 19
Applied
DNA Gets Under My Skin
If
you've been around the site for a while, then you've probably already heard
me say counterfeiting costs legitimate companies about $600 billion in
lost business each year. Clearly it's an opportunity for the right company,
which is why Applied DNA (OTCBB:
APDN) caught our eye a few months ago - they appear ready and
able to launch a direct frontal assault on the illegal practice.
It's
an enticing prospect to be sure, but frankly, it has nothing to
do with today's good news...or does it?
When
the same anti-counterfeit company can simultaneously generate revenue with
a totally different kind of product, so much the better. And when there's
industry-crossover potential, I'm even more interested.
Applied
DNA just shipped their second order of the recently-launched skin-care
product ingredient DermalRx. It was sold to the same skin-care product
company that bought the first order back on November
26th. So, it appears this un-named (so far) organization is
proceeding with the R&D involved in integrating DermalRx with the end-product.
Applied DNA believes this product will be launched by the customer/company
sometime before the end of 2008.
The
impact for shareholders is as straight-forward as it seems - the revenue
machine is growing in size, even if in small increments. Once the skin-care
product's development is done and it's rolled out commercially, there's
no telling how much DermalRx Applied DNA could start selling. Any
amount, however, could have a major impact on the company's current top
line...the young upstart did a little more than $100K in sales for the
last two quarters. I think that's the sweet spot here for current stock
owners - the potential for major and rapid revenue increases within the
next 12 months.
There
was something else in the press release, however, that got my brain's
gears spinning.
Counterfeit
cosmetics is annually a $3 billion industry? Hmmm. And DermalRx
is part of a skin-care company's new product R&D? And, CEO James Hayward
has a couple of decades worth of cosmetics, consumer product, and related
pharma experience (not to mention industry contacts)? Maybe it's just
me, but I think Applied DNA is well-positioned to really make something
happen - like revenue - within the cosmetics world.
Think
about it. There are two ways I see how Applied DNA could protect
cosmetic companies from a tarnished name due to counterfeit products. The
first (and easy) one is the anti-piracy label they've already used for
other products. The really cool one would
be to integrate a DNA marker into the cosmetics themselves. I know basically
nothing about the logistics of an idea. But, since the current marker is
DNA-based/organic, I don't know why it couldn't be done. The company alluded
to something along those lines in the press release, but they didn't specifically
mention putting the DNA marker into cosmetics themselves. Interesting idea.
In
the meantime, APDN shares continue to consolidate between 17 cents and
20 cents.
I know
we'd all love to for the stock to go ahead move to $80.00 so we
could each buy our own small country. Barring that miracle, I'll be content
with a move back to 21 cents or higher. Such a move would break the glass
ceiling from the last two weeks, which could spark a repeat of the move
we saw in mid-January.
Looking
beyond that, our ultimate target is still 36 cents, with a stop still at
7 cents. Like I said with our last look at APDN though, I think I'd
be a short-term profit-taker around 27 cents. That would lock in a
nice gain, and avoid any short-term retreat from the former resistance
level.
Today's
Applied DNA press release is below.
"Four
stores and seven more to go...
...our
founders brought forth to this continent a new restaurant..."
Sorry
- I couldn't resist paying a little homage to Abraham Lincoln while at
the same time describing what's going on with one of my newest favorite
companies.
More
good news from Spicy Pickle (OTCBB:
SPKL) yesterday...they now own four more of their own restaurants,
with all the rights and privileges (i.e. sales and profits) thereof. That
brings the total owned units up to five, and two more are under construction.
So
what happened to the 123 stores we were talking about a couple of weeks
ago? The number is still valid. Most of those 123 restaurants were
franchisee-owned; their owners pay royalties to the Spicy Pickle corporate
office. The five stores (plus two more on the way) we're talking about
are outright owned by the company. Technically speaking, as a franchising
company Spicy Pickle is the lessor instead of the lessee, but you get the
idea.
The
motivation here is simple ...money. Rather than collecting about 7% worth
of royalties on the average store's 700K in annual sales - about $50K
per store - the company now collects 100% of the sales (hello cash
flow!), and benefits from 100% of whatever profits are generated. With
the upside comes more responsibility too...the company also has to run
and manage the stores. Clearly the trade-off is worth it to them.
Let's
do some simple math here. With owning five of their own stores, each of
which we think is doing about $700K annually, the company's top line is
improved by a net of about $3.2 million per year (we're deducting the
franchise fees they used to receive from these stores, but won't anymore).
That's a pretty nice improvement compared to the current annualized sales
of about $1.7 million (based on 35 operational units). In fact, it's
about a 200% increase.
This
also advances the company towards the end-goal of profitability. I doubt
the four-store acquisition will carry then all the way into the black.
However, with 88 more franchises signed, sealed, but so far undelivered,
I do think the swing to profit is in the foreseeable future.
So
does 'four stores and seven more to go' mean we can expect seven
more company-owned stores to soon pop up among the 88 remaining unbuilt
units? Actually, yeah, something like that. The $6
million fund-raising they completed back on December 15th was enough
to open somewhere between 12 and 15 new company restaurants. Five are up
and running, so I think there's room for at least seven more.
As
for the stock, the chart is as triangular as one the restaurants' diagonally-cut
sandwiches...as it has been for weeks. That's not a bad thing or
a good thing, but it does put any short-term trade on the backburner.
The
support and resistance features of the wedge shape are currently trapping
SPKL between $1.12 and $1.26, but the range is shrinking fast. I'm looking
for a move one way or the other soon.
I'd
be a quick buyer if the resistance line is broken. If support is broken
first, I'd also be a buyer once all the dust settles and shares start
to perk up. That bottom may be a little harder to define, but I think the
lower entry level is worth the wait. The company is going full throttle,
and I don't see that changing anytime soon.
Here's
the news
release for Spicy Pickle. The Applied DNA release is below.
Applied
DNA Sciences Ramps Up Production, Ships Additional DermalRx Order;
Scheduled
to Present at Annual Health and Beauty Association Meeting March 4 in New
York City
Thursday February
28, 4:06 pm ET
STONY BROOK, N.Y.--(BUSINESS
WIRE)--Applied DNA Sciences, Inc. (OTC
Bulletin Board: APDN), a provider of DNA-based security solutions,
today announced that it has begun to ramp up production and has shipped
another order for DermalRx(tm). DermalRx(tm), an ingredient used to promote
exfoliation without any of the negative effects (irritation or inflammation)
associated with chemical peeling, is being developed for use in a new skin
care product for a top selling label of a large multinational company.
It is anticipated that one additional order for pilot development and evaluation
will be required prior to commercialization. This product is expected to
be launched before the end of 2008.
"This order highlights
our continued commitment to the ingredients business as a viable means
of generating income for the company," commented Dr. James A. Hayward,
President and CEO of Applied DNA Sciences. "The management team has demonstrated
its ability to succeed in this area in the past, and we will continue to
develop this business along with our SigNature(tm) DNA and Fibertyping(tm)
businesses. This will enable us to build a strong company better able to
weather the different sales cycles of these industries."
Applied DNA Sciences
will be presenting and exhibiting at the Annual Health and Beauty Association
Meeting in New York City March 4, 2008. This meeting, which takes place
at the Jacob Javits Center, brings together decision makers from the cosmetic,
fragrance and personal care industries and is renowned for providing cutting
edge information to the industry. Dr. Hayward's talk, scheduled for 10:20
a.m. and titled "DNA Technology Derived from Plants: Proving Authenticity,
Product Integrity and Foiling Counterfeits," will introduce our SigNature(tm)
DNA to this important market.
Counterfeit cosmetics,
estimated to be a $3 billion market, can seriously damage the health of
consumers. Diversion is an equally daunting problem for cosmetics manufacturers
where many brands rely on the cache of their name to sell products. Counterfeit
or diverted products can tarnish the image of the brand, often making it
difficult to repair. The benefit of forensic authentication is that it
can assist in tracking product and ultimately in the criminal prosecution
of the offending parties. Using SigNature(tm) DNA to mark products can
significantly reduce the risk of counterfeiting and diversion. SigNature(tm)
DNA marked products are currently in use by an international chemical manufacturer
to help protect the authenticity of a key ingredient used in skin and hair
care products.
"It gives me great
pleasure to be a part of a company that works to protect the intellectual
property and brand identity of companies and the health and safety of their
customers," commented Dr. Hayward. "I look forward to sharing our knowledge
and experience to date and offering solutions to these industry leaders
in their daily battle against counterfeiting and diversion."
About Applied
DNA Sciences, Inc.
Applied DNA Sciences,
Inc. provides botanical DNA encryption, embedment and authentication solutions
that can help protect companies, governments and consumers from counterfeiting,
fraud, piracy, product diversion, identity theft and unauthorized intrusion
into physical locations and databases. APDN's common stock is listed on
the Over-The-Counter Bulletin Board under the symbol "APDN."
The statements
made by APDN may be forward-looking in nature and are made pursuant to
the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform
Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements describe APDN's future plans, projections,
strategies and expectations, and are based on assumptions and involve a
number of risks and uncertainties, many of which are beyond the control
of APDN. Actual results could differ materially from those projected due
to our short operating history, limited financial resources, limited market
acceptance, market competition and various other factors detailed from
time to time in APDN's SEC reports and filings, including our Annual Report
on Form 10-KSB, filed on January 15, 2008 and our subsequent quarterly
reports on Form 10-QSB. APDN undertakes no obligation to update publicly
any forward-looking statements to reflect new information, events or circumstances
after the date hereof to reflect the occurrence of unanticipated events.
Contact:
Applied DNA Sciences,
Inc.
Debbie Bailey,
631-444-8090
Fax: 631-444-8848
FCMN Contact:
info@adnas.com
http://www.ADNAS.com
Source: Applied
DNA Sciences, Inc.
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