VOLUME
01:
ISSUE 07
Dow
Jones
9,204.11
+ 40.89
8:33
pm EST, Fri., October 19, 2001
NASDAQ
1,671.31
+ 18.59
For
info, visit access.smallcapnetwork.com
S
& P 500
1,073.48
+ 4.87
To
be removed, please click
here.
Russell
2000
425.70 + 4.64
Dear SmallCap Network
Members:
On Wednesday,
we published our first
SHORT TERM TRADING ALERT on Chad Therapeutics
(AMEX: CTU.) CTU
has traded within or above our trading guidelines since that time and appears
ready to break to the upside. If you missed the STTA on CTU
and would like to review it, please click
here.
Over the past two days, weve heard
from many Network Members requesting more information on companies that
have merit as turnaround candidates over the next twelve months. So todays
WEEKEND
OUTLOOK issue offers
FIVE COMPANIES THAT COULD DOUBLE in the
next twelve months.
These companies are fallen angels
that were once high flyers Wall Street couldnt own enough of until tech
stocks collapsed in early 2000. These companies all share one fact in common:
they have been punished incredibly over that past year and a half and are
trading at or near all time lows.
We urge you to consider this important
guideline should you choose to invest in any of these issues. If
an issue doubles in the next twelve months, SELL HALF THE POSITION. This
strategy accomplishes two things. First, it returns 100% of your risk capital
to pursue other situations. Second, it allows you to hold the remainder
of your position in the issue on a RISK FREE basis.
FIVE STOCKS THAT COULD DOUBLE
IN THE NEXT TWELVE MONTHS
#1- CISCO SYSTEMS (NASDAQ:
CSCO) Industry Group: Communications Equipment. Todays
closing price: $16.75. On February 6, 2001, shares of CSCO closed
at $35.75 and gapped down the following day to close at $31.06 on three
times the prior days volume. This marked the continuation of a downtrend
that carried CSCO to an April 6 closing low of $13.62. The shares
rallied to close at $23.48 six weeks later (May 22) only to hit a new low
on September 27 at $11.24.
Since that time, shares have rallied
with the rest of the market BUT APPEAR POISED TO PULL BACK slightly from
current levels. We view any weakness in CSCO between now and year
end as an excellent opportunity for investors to load up on this great
company.
In the next twelve months, we think
CSCO will attempt to retest the gap created in early February of
this year, making it our number one turnaround pick for the next twelve
months. CSCO CEO John Chambers is one of the top business leaders
in America today and if the economy turns around next year, CSCO
undoubtedly will too. SCN 12-MONTH PRICE TARGET: $34.00
#2- Akamai Technologies (NASDAQ:
AKAM) Industry Group: Computer Services. Todays closing
price: $3.50. One year ago today, AKAM shares closed at $52.78
on the way down from an all-time high of over $300.00 in January 2000.
AKAM
has produced a steady string of quarterly losses since it began trading
publicly in late 1999. However, since that time revenues have skyrocketed.
Third quarter revenues reported on October 11 were up 57.4% over the prior
year quarter to $42.8 million even in a bad economy.
At the end of the quarter, AKAM
had $239.6 million in cash and equivalents, and estimated $100 million
in negative free cash flow in 2002. The Company projects EBITDA breakeven
by second quarter 2002. AKAM provides a global delivery service
for Internet content, streaming media, and applications that improve Web
site speed, quality, reliability, and scalability, provide protection against
Web site failures.
Since hitting an all-time closing
low of $2.65 on October 1, AKAM shares rallied to close at $4.13
just eight trading days later before drifting back again the past few sessions.
Selling volume has been trending lower all year and appears to have all
but dried up. It appears the next significant move in AKAM shares
will be up, however we caution SmallCap Network Members ONE MORE PRICE
DIP COULD OCCUR before year-end.
Nonetheless, we have no problem making
AKAM
our #2 turnaround pick for the next twelve months. AKAMs 200 day moving
average price is somewhere north of $40-$50 per share. Any retest of the
200-day moving average in the next few months would undoubtedly push AKAM
shares dramatically higher. SCN 12-MONTH PRICE TARGET: $8.00.
#3- LEVEL THREE COMMUNICATIONS
(NASDAQ: LVLT)
Industry
Group: Communications Services. Todays closing price: $3.05.
LVLT is a telecommunications and information services company that
operates an advanced, international facilities-based communications network
based on IP technology. For the six months ended in June, LVLT increased
revenues from $411 million to $838 million. However, LVLT showed
a $1.27 billion loss up from $552 million and has announced plans to spend
as much as $1.05 billion to repurchase up to $2.86 billion of its debt.
LVLT shares traded over $120
per share prior to the tech collapse in 2000. The stock started 2001 trading
just north of $30 per share before continuing its precipitous decline.
Since breaking the $5.00 mark in June,
LVLT shares have been in
a basing pattern for the past four months. On October 5, LVLT shares
hit a closing low of $1.98 but have closed over $3.00 four times since
then.
The October 5 closing low of $1.98
on volume of over 25 million shares represented a capitulation bottom.
The basing pattern in LVLT shares has broken the long-term downtrend
the stock has been in since early 2000. For LVLT shares to double
from current levels would put the market cap of the issue at about $2 billion,
which also happens to be a pretty safe estimate of what the company will
do in revenues next year.
At a market cap of one times next
years sales projections, we like LVLT
as a great speculative play
from current levels, and a good pick for a turnaround.
SCN 12-MONTH
PRICE TARGET: $6.50.
#4- COMMERCE ONE (NASDAQ:
CMRC) Industry Group: Computer Services. Todays closing
price: $2.58. CMRC was one of Wall Streets glamour stocks until
the Internet sector crashed in 2000, trading as high as $135.62 on March
9, 2000. The Street was enamored with CMRCs software applications
providing B2B electronic commerce solutions linking buyers and suppliers
of goods and services into trading communities over the Internet.
Two days ago, CMRC announced
third quarter results that showed revenues down to $81 million from $113
million in the year-ago quarter. The Company lost $119 million or $0.45
per share versus a $0.37 loss in the prior year. These results werent
out of line with expectations and the stock closed at $2.41 on Thursday
before bouncing $0.15 today.
Despite the weak quarter, CMRC
products continue to gain ground in their space, and we believe 2002 will
prove much better for the Company than this year did. Stochastic indicators
are almost into oversold territory once again, and the stock looks like
a tremendous candidate for a short-covering rally between now and year
end.
As such, we are very comfortable
making CMRC our #4 turnaround pick.
SCN 12-MONTH PRICE TARGET:
$5.25.
#5- EMC Corporation (NYSE:
EMC) Industry Group: Computer Storage Devices. Todays
closing price: $11.51. EMC is an interesting company in a very
beaten down group. On October 20, 2000, just one year ago, EMC
closed at $100.00 per share before going into a 12-month free fall.
During the last several weeks we have witnessed EMC shares pressing
against an $11.00 bottom witnessed on October 2, 2001
The Company lost $270 million, or
12 cents a share, in the third quarter, excluding charges. Wall Street
was expecting a loss of 5 cents a share. The company earned 20 cents in
the year-ago period. Revenue dropped to $1.21 billion from $2.3 billion.
The company took an $825 million restructuring charge in the period and
announced plans to cut additional staff, bringing the total number of job
cuts to around 4,000.
EMC has had a rough go, however
most analysts expect a return to profitability by the second half of next
year. In most cases, stocks will show an upturn three to six months before
actual events unfold. This gives us a real good feeling about EMC
shares at current price levels.
As we stated, the Computer Storage
Device sector has been one of the worst performing sectors in the market
over the last thirteen weeks. Despite all that's bad, EMC shares
have held their bottom remarkably well recently. EMC has a 200-day
EMA of over $35.00 per share and while this statistic is in decline, we
fully expect a retest in the next few months. SCN 12-MONTH TARGET PRICE:
$23.50.
There you have our top five turnaround
picks for 2002. We'll update Members on these picks before the end of this
year.
If you'd like to update, change,
or add a new email address please click
here.
D I S C L A I M E R :
The
SmallCap Digest is an independent electronic publication committed to providing
our readers with factual information on selected publicly traded
companies. SmallCap Digest is not a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer.
All companies are chosen on the basis of certain financial analysis and
other pertinent criteria with a view toward maximizing the upside
potential for investors while minimizing the downside risk, whenever possible.
Moreover, as detailed below, this publication accepts compensation from
third party consultants and/or companies which it features for the publication
and circulation of the SmallCap Digest or representation on SmallCapNetwork.net.
Likewise, this newsletter is owned by TGR, LLC. To the degrees enumerated
herein, this newsletter should not be regarded as an independent
publication.
Click
Here to view our compensation on every company we have ever covered,
or visit the following web address: http://access.smallcapnetwork.com/compensation_disclosure.html
for our full compensation disclosure and http://access.smallcapnetwork.com/short_term_alerts.html
for Trading Alerts compensation and disclosure.
All statements
and expressions are the sole opinions of the editors and are subject
to change without notice. A profile, description, or other mention of a
company in the newsletter is neither an offer nor solicitation to buy or
sell any securities mentioned. While we believe all sources of information
to be factual and reliable, in no way do we represent or guarantee the
accuracy thereof, nor the statements made herein.
The editor,
members of the editor's family, and/or entities with which the editor
is affiliated, are forbidden by company policy to own, buy, sell or otherwise
trade stock for their own benefit in the companies who appear in the publication.
The profiles, critiques, and other editorial content of the SmallCap Digest
and SmallCapNetwork.net may contain forward-looking statements relating
to the expected capabilities of the companies mentioned herein.
THE READER
SHOULD VERIFY ALL CLAIMS AND DO THEIR OWN DUE DILIGENCE BEFORE INVESTING
IN ANY SECURITIES MENTIONED. INVESTING IN SECURITIES IS SPECULATIVE
AND CARRIES A HIGH DEGREE OF RISK. THE INFORMATION FOUND IN THIS PROFILE
IS PROTECTED BY THE COPYRIGHT LAWS OF THE UNITED STATES AND MAY NOT BE
COPIED, OR REPRODUCED IN ANY WAY WITHOUT THE EXPRESSED, WRITTEN CONSENT
OF THE EDITORS OF SMALLCAPNETWORK.NET.
We encourage
our readers to invest carefully and read the investor information available
at the web sites of the Securities and Exchange Commission ("SEC")
at http://www.sec.govand/or the National
Association of Securities Dealers ("NASD") at http://www.nasd.com.
We also strongly recommend that you read the SEC advisory to investors
concerning Internet Stock Fraud, which can be found at http://www.sec.gov/consumer/cyberfr.htm.
Readers can review all public filings by companies at the SEC's EDGAR page.
The NASD has published information on how to invest carefully at its web
site.