Coverage
Initiated: UFood Grill (UFFC)
For
those of you who were reading our newsletter for a while, you'll also remember
how Spicy
Pickle (OTCBB: SPKL) shot up from our pick price of 69 cents
to our target price of $1.40. The most impressive part about that rally,
however, was that it took just three weeks to accomplish.
Who
would have thought any restaurant stock could yield a 100% return
in less than month? In fact, SPKL eventually went on to trade above
$2.00... a 190% gain from where we recommended it.
Well,
I believe lightning is about to strike again and reward restaurant investors
in the same way.
Here's
the deal - we've discovered a health-focused restaurant concept with
huge growth potential. This restaurant chain opened three locations
since July, and signed leases for two more, in an economic environment
where expansion was supposed to be impossible. And as of today, the
company's got the financing to maintain that strong rate of expansion.
This
is the best part of all though - despite the company being about twice
as big as it was a year ago, you can own the stock for less than
1/10 of what it was trading at then.... a value seeker's dream. And
let me tell you, at a current trading level of 14 cents means there's next
to no downside for this stock. On the flip side, the high above $2.00 from
last year wouldn't be terribly difficult to revisit in the near future.
See
the opportunity? Yes, the market simply let this one slip by last year,
compliments of a hype-based, fear-mongering media and a federal government
transition serving as distractions. You can take advantage of everyone
else's
mistake
by riding shares back up to price levels that actually make sense for this
company.
When
all said and done, that return trip could translate into triple-digit gains
for today's investors. Heck, a mere move from 14 cents to 28 cents would
be a double for you. A rebound only to November's peak levels of 48 cents
would almost be a quadruple in value. It's just wild how much bang you
could get for your buck here.
And
after 2008's market debacle, odds are that you want and need
a big winner in your portfolio. We think this is it.
"Feel
Great. Eat Smart."
If
you've not yet been introduced to UFood
Grill (OTCBB:UFFC) as a customer, I think you will be pretty soon.
UFood is one of the leaders in the move towards healthy restaurant food
choices - the core reason for the company's growth, past and future.
At
the end of last year, 1600 of the American Culinary Federation's chefs
were asked what they felt would be the major trends for restaurant food
in 2009. The first two of the top ten anticipated trends were health-oriented;
six of the top ten were also health-oriented.
Company
Name:
UFood
Restaurant Group, Inc.
Stock
Symbol :
UFFC
Coverage
Initiated:
March
19th, 2009
Current
Price:
$0.14
Avg.
Volume (3 mo.):
39,477
52
Week Range:
$0.10
- $2.10
Market
Cap:
$5.2M
Rating:
Speculative
Buy
Translation?
Consumers
now expect healthier choices from the restaurants they visit, and
they're willing to pay for it. In fact, three out of four adults acknowledge
they're looking to change their diet to something healthier, and more than
1/4 of American adults have used the Internet to find nutrition information
about restaurant's menus.
UFood
Grill's menu doesn't offer anything that's fried... literally. Everything
is baked, grilled, or steamed. Fresh produce, whole grains, and organic
ingredients are used whenever possible. However, the company has never
lost sight of the fact that great flavors are the key to a restaurant's
success. And if you asked anyone who's eaten at a UFood Grill, they can
tell you the food does indeed taste great in addition to being healthy.
Here's
a link to a company video below, if you really want the details. I highly
recommend you check it out: http://access.smallcapnetwork.com/video/p/company/uffc/.
The
company's slogan "Feel great. Eat Smart." is right on target - UFood is
simply tapping into that revenue stream as one of the first and very few
names in the health-oriented restaurant space.
Fundamental
View
As
of our last count, there are fourteen UFood Grill locations in operation.
Five of them are company-owned, and nine of them are franchised. The company
added six of those units since the end of 2007.
In
terms of numbers, the company has been generating quarterly revenues around
$1.5 million, though bear in mind rapid expansion in recent months could
significantly boost this number in future quarters.
On
the surface the revenue dollars may not seem commensurate with the number
of units, but remember, most of the stores are franchises. These units
contribute less to the corporate top line than a company-owned unit would,
but the bottom line margins for franchise fees and royalties are tremendous.
Therefore, the focus really should be on expenses, overhead and the bottom
line.
The
balance sheet is clean too.
Per
the most recent 10Q, UFood's got well over a million in cash, about 880K
in near-term debt obligations, and another 445K in long-term debt obligations.
There's also some convertible debt on the books, along with 34.8 million
common shares issued and outstanding. At 14 cents per share, that translates
into a non-diluted market cap of $5.2 million. Today's financing probably
changed those numbers somewhat, but there's nothing unusual or alarming
about the company's capitalization.
The
company's growth trend and our realistic growth projections suggest profitability
could be achieved in 2010. So why not wait until then? Experienced
investing veterans will know that waiting for perfection will be too late
- stocks move in anticipation of a company's success. If maximum
profits are your goal (and why wouldn't they be?), we believe
now is the ideal time to become an owner.
A couple
of SEC filings have offered subtle clues as to where the company is headed.
Specifically, the 8K filing from February 2nd mentioned the company was
in negotiations with a world-wide provider of food services that could
put many more units in non-traditional locations. UFood had also requested
locations at several more airports. If those are approved, those units
could also open in 2009. And finally, the company cited their intent to
enter the hospital market, which needless to say could be an enormous
victory.
While
none of those projects were guaranteed or specific, the fact that they
were filed as part of an official document with the SEC adds a great deal
of credibility to them.
Therefore,
even with a conservative interpretation of the message UFood was sending
with the document, we believe the company's growth potential is enormous.
We don't think it would be out of line to look for several dozen UFood
Grills within the foreseeable future. That's great news for stock
owners.
The
Time is Now
I've
worked very hard to not utilize overused cliches, but there's one I can't
avoid for anybody asking "Why now?"
The
Chinese definition of 'crisis' translates into English as "dangerous
opportunity". I know - it's cheesy. And for most companies,
the financial crisis of 2008 clearly offered more danger than opportunity.
In UFood's case though, the economic contraction created a disproportional
amount of opportunity, for the company as well as investors.
Why
do I say this? Two reasons.
First,
the company has expanded in a nasty economic environment. Take a look.
A unit
in California was opened in November
A unit
in Chicago was opened in January....the city's third.
A unit
was opened in Draper, UT in February.
A unit
opened at Dallas/Fort Worth Airport just a few days ago.
How
many other organizations can you name that are growing right now? Merely
surviving 2008 would be impressive, but UFood Grill has continued to maintain
shareholder value just by growing. Again, I think the short film
does the company justice: http://access.smallcapnetwork.com/video/p/company/uffc/.
And
if you're wondering how they added stores in an ugly environment, it's
actually pretty simple. Commercial real estate is very reasonably priced
right now (particularly in airports, where UFood thrives), while the restaurants
have managed to keep drawing a crowd despite the recession. Oh, and
the concept was strong enough to continue attracting investment dollars
to fund the expansion, which leads me to the second and bigger
reason why I think now is the time become an owner...
As
you'll read in the press release below, UFood Grill just completed financing
worth about $2.8 million. Yes, you read that right - a company just
raised money in an environment where it's supposed to be impossible.
The
private placement in itself could be reason enough to become an
owner. Those investors are putting millions on the line, so obviously they
see something well worth the risk. I'd be willing to line up side-by-side
with someone putting up that kind of money.
The
exciting aspect of the fund raising, however, doesn't appear in
the press release.
In
2008, UFood raised about $11 million at $1.00 per share. The company then
parlayed that into real, tangible expansion. How so? UFood
started last year with eight units, and now there are fourteen. In other
words, the company actually put the money to good use, and directly
benefited investors by opening more revenue-bearing units. I have no
reason to think UFood won't do the same this time around too.
Here's
the sweetest part of all though.... you can own UFFC shares for less
than 1/10 of last year's value, despite the company's growth
in the meantime, and in front of what I think will be yet another
strong growth wave.
There's
a lot to like about UFood's... the market cap of around $5 million, moderate
debt financing, quarterly revenue of about $1.5 million (and growing),
a clean balance sheet, and now the funding to continue their proven
expansion. At 14 cents now versus $2.00 from the middle of last
year - and factoring in the growth in the meantime - the stock
simply looks undervalued.
In
our opinion, we feel UFFC has the potential to more than double in value
in less than a year... possibly a lot more. But, that only does you any
good if you're actually a shareholder. We rate UFood Grill shares
as a speculative buy, and suggest you become an owner today while
shares are sub-20 cents. They aren't likely to stay that low much longer.
UFood Grill
Announces $2.8 Million Proceeds of Private Placement Offering
BOSTON, MA--(MARKET
WIRE)--Mar 20, 2009 -- UFood Restaurant Group, Inc. (OTC BB:UFFC) announces
it has received proceeds of a Private Placement offering in the amount
of $2.8 million, net of expenses, to fund its ongoing growth and operations.
About UFood
Restaurant Group, Inc.
Headquartered
in Boston, MA, UFood Restaurant Group, Inc. is a franchisor and operator
of fast-casual food service restaurants. UFood Grill offers a healthy lifestyle
alternative to consumers in the fast-casual restaurant space and is positioned
to become a leading player in the "better-for-you" quick serve restaurant
category. The Company is led by franchise innovator George Naddaff, who
founded Boston Market and led the franchising of several companies including
Sylvan Learning Center and Ranch*1. Mr. Naddaff has a veteran management
team with a record of success in the franchise market. UFood is currently
launching a growth plan to franchise nationwide. To learn more, please
visit www.ufoodgrill.com.
Forward-Looking
Statements
This press release
contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities
Litigation Reform Act of 1995 involving known and unknown risks, delays,
and uncertainties that may cause our actual results or performance to differ
materially from those expressed or implied by these forward-looking statements.
These risks, delays, and uncertainties include, but are not limited to:
risks associated with the uncertainty of future financial results, our
reliance on our sole supplier, the limited diversification of our product
offerings, additional financing requirements, development of new products,
government approval processes, the impact of competitive products or pricing,
technological changes, the effect of economic conditions and other uncertainties
detailed in the Company's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
The Company undertakes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements.
Contact:
Alexis Miminos
(617) 787-6000