Dow Jones 11397.56 +266.48 1:06 pm PDT, July 29, 2008 NASDAQ 2319.62 +55.40 For info, visit access.smallcapnetwork.com S & P 500 1263.19 +28.82 Change your subscription status here Russell 2000 713.20 +17.09 VOLUME 08 : ISSUE 67 Adding Context to Today's Consumer Confidence  I'm going to zip through a handful of different items today, so hang on tight. You'll find the most important one first...what today's consumer confidence number really meant. (Hint: the media doesn't exactly provide enough context or basis to talk about the data the way they do.) Following that, we're going to mention Spicy Pickle's newest investor-relations tool, and amend an announcement made by Stockhouse yesterday (regarding earnings).  Frankly, I could talk about more. I'll spare you though. Look for those extra thoughts later in the blog or the next newsletter. I'm going to continue taking detailed looks at oil, so be sure to stay tuned.    Consumer Confidence Reading Meaningless Without Context  It never ceases to amaze me how some of the media can take news, and repackage it into commentary that still doesn't provide any context for its readers. Today's announcement of the consumer confidence figure - an invention of the 'Conference Board' - is one of those monthly data nuggets that seems to always remind me of this.  You may recall last month's consumer confidence level of 51.0 (it was revised from 50.4) was the lowest level we'd seen in sixteen years. "Oh the horror!" cried the journalists. "Surely this must spell gloom and doom for the stock market." (OK, I paraphrased)  Did it? Maybe. It all depends on your perspective. However, after watching this piece of data for years now, I've come to learn at least one thing....the harder the journalist pounds the table, the better off I am doing the opposite of what he or she is advocating. As always, the chart tells the tale.  The circled portions of the chart are periods when consumer confidence was at multi-year highs or multi-year lows. Take a look at what happened each time we saw confidence reach an extreme. The best time to sell stocks is actually when investors are euphoric.The best time to buy stocks has been when investors thought the economy would never rebound.  As for what this has to do with media coverage, now cross analyze those circled ares on the chart with a few of the headlines at some of those times.  January 2000 - When consumer confidence reached a record of 144.7 in January of 2000, the International Herald Tribune had quite a bit to say about it.  "People looking for confirmation that the consumer confidence bubble will soon burst have a further wait in store," said Lynn Franco, research director for the Conference Board, a business-financed research group, which reported the measurement. "An expanding global economy and a robust job market suggest that consumer optimism and consumer spending could rise even further in coming months."  Do I even need to tell you what happened over the next two years?  March 2003 - After sliding to 61.4, a CNNMoney.com commentary headline read:  "Consumer confidence falls -Closely watched measure of consumer sentiment, critical for broader economy, slips again"  March of 2003 was the end of the bear market.  February 2007 - The move to 112.5 was the highest consumer confidence reading since 2001. NASDAQ.com, in a story from Econoday, had this to say:  "Consumer confidence strengthened further in February according to the Conference Board's index....The strength was not accompanied by rising inflation expectations, an important plus that will ease concern of economic overheating." An explanation of 'Why Investors Care' went on to explain "The pattern in consumer attitudes and spending is often the foremost influence on stock and bond markets. For stocks, strong economic growth translates to healthy corporate profits and higher stock prices."  Two days later, the market had been crushed.  The point is, the media isn't always right, nor do they always find quote-worthy sources who are right. The news coverage above is almost comical in retrospect.  So, here's the deal.....  For investors, the press is usually either too aggressive, or not aggressive enough. Or, their timing is off. The time to be speculatively bullish was last month; the time to be calculatingly bullish won't be until next month when we see if today was just a blip or not. Today's data alone really shouldn't be guiding you in any direction.  In that light, I'm mostly inclined to use last month's multi-year low reading as a contrarian bullish hint. That's speculation, but like I said, this has nothing to do with today's small blip.  The contrarian idea is something I've mentioned before - and was successful with - here in the newsletter. Check out the August 28th blog regarding a short-term bullish expectation on low confidence levels, and our bullish call from August of 2006. Both were spot on.  As for my calculated expectation, I'm only curious at this point. This was the first time in seven months the confidence reading didn't fall, but I wouldn't say it was rising again. Other media sources are interpreting it a little more bullishly; I think that's premature based on what we know so far. Besides, the media's track record is clearly shaky at best.  I still suspect we'll see one more good dip before we make a final bottom for this bear market, but higher confidence levels in the near-term could delay reaching that ultimate low point.  As for today's confidence data though, don't make a mountain out of a molehill.    Quick Hits  I covered all of this stuff in the blog. but it's short enough and important enough to mention again here in the newsletter. So....  Investor Fact Sheet Available For Small Cap Spicy Pickle  I would guess between the detailed coverage we've provided and your own due diligence, most of you could actually have written this thing yourselves, but....there's an investor fact sheet available for anybody wanting to learn more about the investment potential of our small cap stock pick Spicy Pickle Franchising (OTCBB: SPKL).  The document is available via the Spicy Pickle web site, and can be accessed simply by clicking the link. Don't worry - it's not some 80 page dissertation. The whole thing is a couple of quick pages.  One thing they did add that I liked was a revenue growth estimate for 2008. We've been trying to hit a moving target in that regard.  New restaurants are being added all the time (which creates one-time as well as ongoing revenue). But, we'd have to know exactly how many they're adding and at what point in the year they're to be added in order to nail down a hard number. The company just posted a dollar figure ....making my job much easier.  Stockgroup/Stockhouse Sets Earnings Date  You may have seen the announcement that went out yesterday morning about Stockgroup's/Stockhouse's (OTCBB: STKH) next earnings announcement. Or, maybe you saw the corrected one that went out in the afternoon. The time and date didn't change, but the company had indicated it was Q1 earnings on the way rather than Q2. The second release clarified in was indeed for their second quarter. Anyway....  Be sure to keep your ears and eyes open on August 13th (Wednesday) around 4:00 PM EST. They're going to release results shortly after the market closes. The conference call/webcast will begin at 4:10 PM EST (as always), and can be accessed via the company's website.  As usual, the company's top management will be fielding live questions for those who dial in (sorry, the webcast can't accommodate two-way communication) and listen over the phone. The number is 1-866-400-3310.  I've said it before and I'll say it again...you can learn far more about a company with those questions and answers than you can from the somewhat-scripted presentation. And at this point - based on recent results and events - Stockhouse has a lot to explain.      We Value Your Feedback   Got comments, questions or suggestions? 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To the degrees enumerated herein, SCN should not be regarded as an independent publication.  Click Here or go to http://access.smallcapnetwork.com/compensation_disclosure/ to view our compensation on every company we have ever covered, or visit the following web address: http://access.smallcapnetwork.com/profile_disclosure/ for our full profiles and http://access.smallcapnetwork.com/alert_disclosure/ for Trading Alerts.  Larry Isen, the editor and publisher of the OTC Journal, through various entities he controls, has purchased 1,200,441 shares of Spicy Pickle at an average cost of $.2125 per share. These purchases were made in Spicy Pickle private offerings. The aforementioned purchases were made between August of 2005 and August of 2006. On 12/15/07, on entity controlled by Larry Isen participated in an additional financing wherein 12 shares of convertible preferred, converting at $.85 into 120,000 shares and 90,000 warrants with an exercise price of $1.60 were purchased. 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