News Details – Smallcapnetwork
Ho-Hum Response to Apple iPhone 7 Speaks Volumes
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February 2, 2024

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PDT

Good Wednesday afternoon, one and all. How are things? For those of you who also happen to be Under the Radar Movers subscribers, life is very good right now. You locked in 25% gain on a trade today, with a holding period of just a little more than a week. That trade was short position (a bet against) in Electromed (ELMD). James Brumley and the URM crew saw trouble for ELMD back on August 29th, and recommended selling it short that same day. It got off to a great start, by falling, but the sellers want crazy today. At one point Electromed was down about 16%. Under the Radar Movers members got out at an average price of around $4.25, translating into a profit of 25% for the one-week holding period. If this all seems vaguely familiar, it might be because it was only yesterday we were congratulating Under the Radar Movers members for the 102% gain they banked on a long position in Nova Lifestyle (NVFY). That was only a three-week trade. Two huge trades in two days? Not that every day is like that, but enough of them are to make a membership to the Under the Radar Movers newsletter one of the best investments you could make all year. Many subscribers have more than covered their subscription costs with just one of the two aforementioned trades alone, which is only about a dollar a day. Or, you can just read about the next big Under the Radar Movers winner after the fact. Your call. Anyway, I'm sure some of you were on the call, but if you didn't get a chance to phone in this morning, the replay of the Staffing 360 Solutions (STAF) Q4 and full-year conference call is now available. Just go here. You have to register, but go ahead and do it. I've never gotten an e-mail I didn't want (or at all, now that I think about it) from Investor Calendar. As is usually the case, the post-call Q&A was the most enlightening part about the webcast. If you're wondering it, there's a good chance somebody else asked it when they got the chance. On other fronts, in light of the fact that Apple (AAPL) unveiled a new iPhone today I thought we'd take a few moments this afternoon to stir up a hornet's nest. Just for the record, nothing I'm about to opine is rooted in today's look at the iPhone 7. We're just having this chat today because the company is at the top of everyone's mind, and we want to chime in while it matters most. Ready? Brace yourself.... Apple is just another run-of-the-mill company. I know that's outright heresy to some fans and followers of Apple. After all, this is the company that not only makes the best smartphone in the world, but it created the category. It also pioneered mobile digital music, and its computers are top-notch. You could even argue that the iPad ushered in the mainstreaming of tablets, even though Apple didn't conceive them. All these things are true, and applaud-able. And if this were 2011, we might feel differently. That's when the iPad was still very new and the iPhone 4 was a big forward leap from the iPhone 3. The stock was soaring then, and rightfully so. This isn't 2011 though. The difference between the iPhone 7 and the iPhone 6 is minimal, at least to the average user. Ditto for the iPad. Competition is catching up, and frankly, the "wow" factor is wearing off of the company's technology. Apple doesn't innovate anymore. It just iterates. Today's tepid response to the iPhone 7 event underscores this idea. But they're waiting for 2017's iPhone? Maybe, but how many people are going to hold off again next year knowing there's apt to be a 2018 device too? At some point , Apple has to inspire a lot of "here and now" purchases. Maybe people are waiting for a thrilling advance like they got with the first iPhone. If that's what they're holding out for, they'll never buy another new device. Don't hear me wrong. Apple is still a great company, and arguably a better investment on its worst day than most other stocks on their best day. We also like the fact that Apple is moving more towards recurring revenue businesses and becoming less reliant on sales of devices. But, let's call a spade a spade - without that "wow" factor, a once-infallible AAPL doesn't defy gravity and continue to move higher indefinitely. We've seen this in the form of a couple different major setbacks for AAPL shares since 2012. It recovered both times, and will do so again if it tumbles in the future. That's not in question. What is in question is when, or if, Apple is going to come up with a completely brand new category like the iPhone back in 2007. To those students of the market with a good memory, Apple wasn't put on its pedestal until then. Since then it's fallen off, though few have noticed. We only bring it up now as a cautionary tale. A lot of people still think Apple can do no wrong, and is just one of those names you have to own. It's lost something of an edge though, and Tim Cook doesn't seem able to bring it back. It needs a whole new kind of product to bring it back. Tim Cook doesn't strike me at the kind of guy who's able to create something where there's nothing. Just some food for thought, while everybody was mulling the iPhone 7's unveiling. As for the market, I ran across this tidbit at MarketWatch today -- from Standard & Poor's Sam Stovall -- looking at how the market performs when it goes so long without a daily pullback of 1% or more. Today was the fiftieth day we've accomplished that feat. Based on the historical tendency, we're likely to see the S&P 500 lose about 1.5% by twenty trading days from now. There's also a 68% chance we'll see a loss of some size, which means there's only a 32% chance we'll see a gain of any size between now and September 27th. Now, couple that with the fact that the average September performance for the S&P 500 is a loss of 0.68% (and we log a loss of any size 78% of the time) and what you have is a concerning situation. We're not fighting one bearish tendency, but two. Still, if that's what's in the cards, the charts certainly aren't saying so. Traders were perfectly content to simply sit on the fence today (though they're also still sitting on top of the 20-day moving average line). It looks like the undertow is bullish, and to a small degree it is. We've seen this bait before though. Heck, we've seen it a couple of times within the past few weeks. The S&P 500's ceiling at 2194 held the buyers back both times. Will the third time be the charm? We'll see, but with the VIX back near a major floor, it's going to take a massive amount of work to make that happen. If you want more perspective on the broad market and where it's plausibly headed next, again, the Under the Radar Movers newsletter does that too.