Never let it be said the market doesn't have a knack for keeping things interesting. Yesterday it looked like the bears were going to yank the rug out from underneath stocks. Today, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi chimed in and spurred U.S. stocks higher right out of the gate. As the sage wisdom warns us, however, be careful what you ask for because you just might get it. And, given the intraday rollover, it looks like traders remembered the axiom after the initial rally had run its course. In case you've not had a chance to look beyond the headlines today, here's the short version of the story. Although the U.S. Federal Reserve has pulled out several stops since 2008 to stimulate the economy (namely, a huge bond buyback and ultra-low interest rates), the European Central Bank hasn't been nearly as dovish. That is, it hasn't been as dovish until today. Still not seeing enough economic strength to get its economic ball rolling at full speed again, Draghi today unveiled a double-barreled plan to jolt the Eurozone into high gear. The region's interest rates were lowered, and the ECB announced plans to begin a bond-buying program of its own in October. The move itself isn't shocking, but the timing of it was something of a surprise left hook. One would have thought the maneuver would have materialized long ago. Why now, all of a sudden, when the Eurozone's woes don't seem to be worsening? As for what it means to you as (mostly) U.S. investors of (mostly) U.S. stocks, the news isn't as good as this morning's bullish jolt would lead you to believe. This as admittedly an over-simplified explanation, but still an accurate one. Here goes. Given how intricately linked global economies now are, a stronger Europe means a stronger U.S. If their consumers and corporations are better funded, it means they'll buy more of whatever the U.S. is willing to export. That's good. The problem is, Europe's weak and falling interest rates in addition to the region's looming cash infusion means the U.S. dollar could soar while the Euro slumps. And, this is exactly what we saw happen today. Already on the rise, the U.S. dollar index jumped more than 1.0% today. That's huge, by currency standards. As our chart indicates, the pop from the sawbuck seems to have hit a wall at a known, prior ceiling between 83 and 85. Here's the $64,000 question - is the U.S. dollar going to keep rallying, or is there a true, structural ceiling around 84 that's going to send the dollar lower again? It matters, because the U.S. dollar is reaching (if it hasn't already reached) a pain point for overseas consumers. A stronger dollar means not just Europe's spenders but spenders all over the world are now going to have a tougher time buying U.S. exports. Given how more than one-fourth of the United States' largest companies' sales are derived by overseas buyers, this surge in the value of the dollar could become a major headache for our rebounding economy. Heck, it could end up being a major stumbling block at a point when a stumbling block is the last thing we need to deal with. Now, I don't know how high is "too high" for the U.S. dollar index. I don't know because nobody really knows. I do know, however, we're now at a point where overseas customers are going to think twice before buying our goods. Maybe the dollar has truly hit a ceiling and is poised to pullback. Should the dollar move any higher though, that's going to be a problem. I'm not sure what this morning's early buyers were celebrating for, though based on the market's lull shortly after the opening surge, traders figures out the downside of Draghi's idea pretty quickly. OK, enough preaching. We don't want to make this a sermon. We just wanted to tell you the other side of the story nobody else seems to be telling. We'll keep tabs on the chart of the U.S. dollar index too, and keep you aware of any noteworthy movement. OK, Maybe There's Something Here After All We only had a chance to knock out one of the small cap sector charts we've been trying to show you of late, but one is better than none, right? Today's chart is of the S&P 600 Financials Index. You may remember this wasn't one of the small cap sector's we were enamored with earlier in the week, based on its valuation and growth profile. Gotta be honest though... after seeing this chart, I'm warming up to small cap financial stocks. Take a look. Yes, I know these stocks as a group haven't made a lot of progress (ok, no progress), since the end of the last year. The earnings growth has kept right on trucking though, which has driven the trailing P/E ratio down. The pros say more of the same earnings growth is in store through the end of next year too, and I don't doubt it'll happen. I'm still not bullish on the group, but if the S&P 600 Financial Index manages to break above its ceiling at 721 soon, I may be convinced to change my mind. Again, this is why we take a look at the whole picture rather than just a snapshot. Fundamentals tell you what a stock or group should be priced at. A chart tells you how they're actually apt to be priced in the future, and when the tide is turning. We'll see if we can get a couple more of these small cap sector charts out to you in tomorrow's edition. No promises though. Either way, right now we've got to get to today's market action. What a shocking - and troubling - reversal of fortune! Yes! Wait.... No. Well guys and gals, it is what it is. Like it or not, stocks took a huge step back today... not in terms of size, but in terms of importance. We saw lower lows across the board, not to mention lower closes. Had it not been in-development for days, it might be the kind of stumble we could overlook. A rollover has been in the works for over a week though, so we don't want to ignore the fact that it's getting traction now. Let's just start at the beginning, with a look at the S&P 500. After hitting a record high this morning, the bulls made a 180 degree turnaround to close under the key 2000 level. We've now made lower lows in three of the past six sessions, and today's close was one of the lowest in nearly two weeks. As alarming as that is, even more bearish is how the VIX temporarily pushed its way above its converged 20-day and 50-day moving average lines around 12.7. Like the S&P 500, the VIX's new trend is one that's been in the works for several days, and though it didn't get all the way over the hump today, it's close. Ditto for the NASDAQ Composite and the VXN. Were it just the NASDAQ breaking down or the VXN breaking up, again, we might overlook it. To see both of them reverse course though? This is a paradigm shift. The VXN, in fact, closed above its key moving average lines. Just for the record, the Dow and the Russell 2000 basically gave us the same message today. There's no need to rehash the same premise. Is it possible investors are just cleaning up their portfolio before tomorrow's big employment data update? It's possible. It's just not likely - investors have never really cared before. No, I've got a nasty feeling this is something that was in the cards a while back. September is usually a bad month anyway, and the market's plenty overbought right now. With all of that being said, this still isn't the proverbial death blow. Even a true death blow from here might not be a huge deal anymore. The sideways movement we've seen for the past week and a half has allowed the market index's key moving average lines to catch up and establish some floors just below where we are now. For the S&P 500, as an example, the 20-day and 50-day moving average lines are around 1970. Even a modest breakdown here could find support rather quickly. And, we already know the 100-day moving average line, currently at 1936, has support potential. Or, who knows? Maybe the right employment news tomorrow will draw the buyers back in. We've seen crazier things recently. Like we've said repeatedly of late, trading is a day-to-day affair right now. That didn't change today. We think it's all going to unfurl in a bearish direction, but the case so far is still a little flimsy for our tastes.