In
This Edition...
New Trade
Alerts: Frontline (FRO), Canadian Pacific Railway (CP)
Review
of Open Trades: GenVec (GNVC), RealNetworks (RNWK)
Trades
to Bail On (if you haven't already)
New
Trade Alerts
I'm
pretty excited about today's two new picks, as I'm taking a stance I don't
usually take... a long-term one. Most of my recent picks have been
short-term calls, based on charts. Frontline Ltd. (FRO) and Canadian Pacific
Railway Limited (CP), however, are intended to be longer-term holdings...
both of them bullish/long.
Certainly
charts played a role in the selection process, but the fundamentals -
I think - should drive these stocks upward to very large gains over
the next few months, if not years. So, here's a complete look at
Canadian Pacific Railway Limited and Frontline Ltd. (and yes, it's only
a coincidence that both are transportation stocks).
Canadian
Pacific Railway Limited (CP)
I know
this is probably the last thing you thought you'd ever see in the Small
Cap Network newsletter as a stock pick, and I'd be the first to admit it's
not our usual fare. Value is value though, and right now, Canadian Pacific
Railway shares are a value.
Bottom
line, Canadian Pacific Railway has been making money. They make money in
good times and bad (and with or without a fuel surcharge). Both
the top and bottom line tapered off in 2008, and in the first half of 2009,
reflecting a steep decline in rail shipping traffic. Yet, the trailing
P/E of 14.1 and the forward-looking P/E of 16.6 still reflect a tangible,
revenue-bearing operation at a reasonable price. Moreover, CP has been
in the habit of topping earnings estimates.
Since
May, Canadian carload and intermodal traffic has exploded, moving from
an average of 94,000 cars per week to 113,000 per week. That's only a 20%
increase, but by rail traffic standards it's enormous. It's also the biggest
May/October differential on record.
I'm
going to take the hint at face value and say 2010 is primed to be a huge
year for railroads in general, and Canadian Pacific Railway Limited in
particular. Will it match 2007's levels? I don't know. I do know
the market has only priced in a 30% increase in earnings for next year,
and only a 6.6% increase in revenue. And, as I said, the rail carrier has
been beating forecasts consistently. I believe the true potential of CP
is underestimated here, particularly if oil prices linger above $70.
Frontline
Ltd. (FRO)
Frontline
Ltd. is another undervalued, unrecognized recovery play. Last quarter's
results weren't as strong as hoped, nor were they as strong as they had
been in the quarters immediately before Q3. In fact, Frontline swung to
a loss. Net positive earnings are expected again this quarter and next
year, however, of $0.08 and $1.12, respectively.
Is
Frontline Ltd. a global recovery bet? At least to some extent, yes. It
is the world's biggest independent oil tanker shipping group, and as such,
is perfectly-positioned to capitalize on an economic rebound. Not that
unemployment's dip to 10% last month is total evidence that things are
getting better, but it's another layer of a mounting pile of evidence to
that end. FRO would be one of those high-payoff (and stealthy) ways to
play a recovery, since there's lots of room for the stock to rebound. With
that said....
The
chart of Frontline is compelling beyond measure. I've talked about this
shape before, but it bears repeating now - these bowl-shaped recovery moves
that take a long time to get rolling have outstanding odds of follow-through.
Moreover, FRO is visibly accelerating now, and hit multi-month highs today.
Review
of Open Trades
I don't
have time or space to touch all our open trades, but there are a few details
worth mentioning.
GenVec
Inc. (GNVC) - I was right... the
volatility has been beneficial to us, but dizzying at the same time.
After getting in at $0.89 and going nowhere for a while, GenVec finally
launched from $0.85 to a peak of $1.16 in late November. Then (surprise
surprise) GNVC pulled back to a low of $0.93, only to reach $1.18 two
days later. Now GenVec is back to $0.99 - all over the map.
I know
this is frustrating, but that's just the nature of low-priced stocks. We're
up about 10% in a month and a half, but more importantly, the volatility
is working for us. I still see this one as worth trouble, as it could
double from here in a matter of weeks. (Or, it could be cut in half - that's
the game.)
RealNetworks
Inc. (RNWK) - No worries about the big pullback we've seen from RealNetworks
since mid-October. I warned that the runup was excessive, and such a move
was on the way. Well, here it is.
As
it stands now, it looks like the head-and-shoulderish reversal pattern
will be complete right around the $3.00 level, which also happens to be
where RNWK is going to encounter the support line that prompted
this trade in the first place... the one that goes back to April. As
long as that line holds, I expect RealNetworks to resume the original uptrend.
(And, given that the selling volume has been minimal, that shouldn't
be a problem.)
Valassis
Communications Inc. (VCI) - Valassis is now under an elevated level
of scrutiny. This short trade got off to a great start, moving from out
entry at $16.33 to a low of $14.32 in a matter of days. This week, however,
VCI not only rebounded, but popped back above the resistance line that
initially prompted this trade.
The
volume behind the gains was anemic, so I don't see it as a problem yet.
In fact, I expect to see the sellers take over again and pull Valassis
back under support at $16.58 by next week. If that doesn't happen though,
there's no need to be stubborn. Stay tuned.
EDAP
TMS SA (EDAP) - Our EDAP short position continues to progress nicely.
Every few days it retests a falling resistance line, and when it fails
to hurdle it, the stock makes another leg lower. In fact, EDAP is in the
midst of such a retest today; I expect the next few days to send shares
on to new multi-week lows. As of now, we're up 18%.
Trades
to Bail On (if you haven't already)
Most
of these picks would have already been carved out of your portfolio anyway,
if you're following strict rules regarding trailing stops (like a parabolic
SAR trigger). If not, however, let's make sure these names are cleaned
out. In some cases they may mean a loss, which isn't a bad thing - you
can offset you're taxable gains for the year at the same time you free
up some capital for more productive ideas.
Flotek
Industries (FTK) - We're just getting no traction here, and the stock's
moving to new lows now. Though the value is still out there, it's not helping
the stock any. Let's go ahead and dump it.
WebMD
Health Corp. (WBMD) - I thought I officially made an exit on WBMD when
it moved to the $36.00 area on November 11th after the tender offer of
$37.00, but I didn't. So, since it's not going to go anywhere anytime soon,
let's go ahead and lock in the 25% gain by selling your WebMD at the market.
Management
Energy Inc. (MMEX) - You may recall this one was originally MGMT Energy,
Inc. (MGEG). A stock split and name change in the meantime, however, changed
things up. Either way, our cost basis was changed to $0.78, and MMEX peaked
around $1.57, or a 100% gain. Even when things started to crumble in October
though, you could have still escaped with gains around 60% at the point
where trailing stops would have been triggered. If you're still in now,
go ahead and sell it today.
From
the Community
Break-Out
Performers: ENTG, GIII, KNXA
Gold
Looking Toppy - Time to Think Small (GLD, GDX, HMY, NG)
Chart
Outlooks: CTIC, SEED, HESG
SIGA:
Thursday's Drop Was Just A Tree Shake
Anticipating
Friday's Trading Action (OTC:MCLN)