Welcome to the weekend, everybody. We hope you all had a great week. In any case, we've got a pretty full edition for you today, so let's just dig in, starting with the item weighing on my mind the most.
Do any of these crazy realities ring a bell with you?
While all bull markets tend to attract new investors, among this particular uptrend's new investors, almost 6% of them can't read.
This market is so hot right now, regulators had to approve - en masse - 30 new public offerings just to satiate the buying frenzy, or otherwise risk an uncontrollable explosion of existing stock prices.
One expert observer opined "One factor driving private company valuations is the fear of missing out. Many investors are hellbent on associating themselves with the higher profile companies, irrespective of the price they have to pay."
The average P/E for this market's internet stocks is an eye-popping 220.
Margin debt on this market's stocks hit record levels as of the end of March.
For those of you who were around at the time, it sounds an awful lot like late-1999 and early-2000, when U.S. stocks - and U.S. tech stocks in particular - were going ballistic, and people were sure the rally would never stop. These aren't ideas, facts, and comments from 15 years ago though. These are ideas, facts, and comments served up very recently about the insane rally in China's stocks, and China's internet and tech stocks in particular.
And yes, I think that tech bubble could be popped any day now, just like our tech bubble was popped in 2000.
There are some key differences between how things were in the U.S. then and how things are in China now. Namely, the U.S. along with the rest of the world also entered a recession at the same time the dot-com bubble burst, fanning the market's bearish flames. Neither China nor the rest of the world is teetering on a recession now.
Still, from a behavioral finance point of view, all the tell-tale signs are there. That is, the same unfounded, emotionally-driven (and debt-driven) euphoria that ended up blindsiding U.S. investors in 2000 will sooner or later - and likely sooner - bonk Chinese investors in the head the same way.
It's got nothing to do with the economy , and it has little to do with valuations. Mostly it's got to do with the fact that we as humans act in rather predictable patterns, constantly moving back and forth between fear and greed. It just looks like we've moved as close to the greed end of the fear/greed continuum as we can. Now I fully expect the pendulum to swing the other direction, as it always does.
I just wanted to put that idea on the table for anyone who was thinking about taking on some new Chinese tech stock trades. or for anybody who is already in such a trade. Were it just one or two of the aforementioned realities in place, we might be able to overlook it. To see five major red flags of a bubble though? We can't ignore it.
Best of the Best
Sorry we haven't been able to share some of the site's top commentaries this week. The editing schedule has been so full we just haven't had time. We're going to make time to do it today, however, because next week will just be too late to bother mentioning them.
If you're looking for an Internet of Things idea, Bryan Murphy stumbled across obscure Numerex Corp. (NMRX) today, and the growth trajectory looks amazing.
John Udovich was similarly impressed by Iridium Communications (IRDM), which is also a machine-to-machine play... in a slightly different vein. There's a surprising value aspect to IRDM.
For those of you thinking a little more defensively and searching for a short (bearish) trade, Peter Graham dissected Textura (TXTR) quite nicely yesterday, comparing the design-software maker to a couple of its peers.
Finally, James Brumley spotted (another) breakout from Ibio (IBIO). He makes a great point about how this biotech name moves in fairly predictable patterns.
We'll also remind you the Elite Opportunity gave us a freebie yesterday by letting us suggest Ruckus Wireless (RKUS) as a trading idea. Ruckus has actually been in the EO portfolio for a while; John Monroe picked it up at a price of $11.65, meaning it's up roughly 11% for Elite Opportunity members at this point. We just really like RKUS though, and were able to finagle using it as a rare stock recommendation in the newsletter you're reading now. I don't know when we'll be able to poach another one of his picks.... maybe never. We'll see.
I can tell you, however, how to at least get a few more of John's ideas for free. Just sign up for the free stock pick alerts the EO team has agreed to send out to our readers from time to time. It's not the same as a full-blown subscription to the Elite Opportunity newsletter, but it does give you a chance to see just how good John and his team are at finding winners. And, you sure can't beat the price of free. Here's how to add yourself to the free pick list, or cut and paste this link: https://www.smallcapnetwork.com/pages/SCNEOL/v1/
An Omen, or a Trap?
Well, I gotta say, I'm a little surprised about how bullishly the market closed out a surprisingly bullish week. I also have to say, however, I'm also still not convinced this rally effort is going to go anywhere.
For the S&P 500 the line in the sand is still around 2118, where the prior peak was, and where the upper Bollinger band is going to be pretty soon. You can also see the VIX is right back to a key floor around 12.7, so there may be no more room for additional gains. Besides, that would be just like the constantly-vexing market to lure a good-sized batch of buyers in, only to pull the rug out from underneath them when they least suspect it.
The weekly chart of the S&P 500 offers you a little more perspective on just how low the VIX currently is. Of course, this same weekly chart also shows us how well the S&P 500 is pushing up and off of a major floor around 2040, so what do I know, right?
For what it's worth, assuming the S&P 500 earns the expected $26.74 for Q1, the index is now priced at a trailing P/E of 18.7. If you want to blindly wade in based on this week's modest momentum, well, I can understand that. Just bear in mind there's no long-term fundamental support for these prices. It's all just a speculative trade. Even the forward-looking P/E of 17.1 is more than a little crazy.
You know what though? There's nothing going on with stocks yet you need to worry about over the weekend. Everyone just needs to go out and enjoy some nice weather. It'll all be waiting for you when we get back on Monday. Hopefully we'll see a little more conviction then. In the meantime, don't forget to register for the free stock picks John Monroe and the Elite Opportunity crew are sending out to anybody who wants 'em. Here's how to sign up, or cut and paste this link: https://www.smallcapnetwork.com/pages/SCNEOL/v1/