News Details – Smallcapnetwork
Stock Market Correction Timeline, Looks at CRXX, RNN, ASBC, OPWV, WAMUQ
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February 2, 2024

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PDT

In This Edition... Another wild week didn't leave us short of some great comments and observations at the site. Among the most important include looks at Associated Banc-Corp (ASBC), Rexahn Pharmaceuticals (RNN), Washington Mutual (WAMUQ), CombinatoRx, Incorporated (CRXX), and Openwave Systems (OPWV).  After that, we'll take yet-another look at the broad market's direction. Though stocks are positioned to end the day and the week in the black, it's a tainted victory. The details are below.  Stocks in Focus  Openwave Systems Poised to Roll Again Dennis Askew considers Openwave Systems Inc., (NASDAQ:OPWV) a 'buy' following news of a new revenue source - a Japanese partner that wants to use Openwave's e-mail applications. A $2.3 million restructuring charge has been dogging the numbers, but in the long run will actually bear more fruit than the company could without the overhaul.  CombinatoRx Holds Fast at a Floor  CombinatoRx, Incorporated (NASDAQ:CRXX) was doing quite well in a bullish environment. However, to see it continue higher even when the market is under a bearish attack is a true testament to its strength. James Brumley points out the source of that strength for CombinatoRx, and what traders can learn from it.  Washington Mutual Still Chipping Away It's been a real seesaw since December, but Washington Mutual, Inc. (OTC:WAMUQ) shares have continued to make higher highs and higher lows. In fact, so much progress has been made, that Washington Mutual a key horizontal resistance level has been crossed. As such, the stock should have an easier time making progress from here.  Rexahn Pharmaceuticals Shoots for Three Rexahn Pharmaceuticals (AMEX:RNN) caught the attention of M.E. Garza, and rightfully so. The company's getting close to completing work on a compound that doesn't have one use, but several uses. As Garza puts it, Rexahn has 'three-mendous' potential, indicative of the company's three compounds that show the most near-term promise.  Associated Banc-Corp Clears the Hurdle In the short run there's been a lot of ebb and flow from Associated Banc-Corp (NASDAQ:ASBC). When you take a step back though - and look at the undeniable trends indicated by the stock's moving average lines - you can actually see that ASBC has made its way past an important line in the sand.  A Market Correction Timeline Though the data isn't complete simply because the trading session isn't over yet, here around 2:00 p.m. EST on a Friday afternoon (and with much of the country snowed under, no less), we're close enough to the end of the week to draw some conclusions. And, they're probably not conclusions the bulls will appreciate.  Yes, stocks were/are up this week.... about 0.6% at our last look. Not bad, but it's certainly not the kind of thing that will light a fire under the market. If the recent pattern repeats itself, this is just a little teaser before the next bearish storm.  Why do I say that? If you've been reading the newsletter for more than a week, then you'll know I've spent some time explaining what a 'normal' correction should look like, and how this one - so far - has fallen well short of even the most liberal of correction definitions.  I've been forming that outlook on my personal rule of thumb (based on my own observations and math) that a normal correction is something on the order of 15% from the high point to the low point. There are several other definitions out there, but they're all about the same in terms of size. In the meantime, I've stumbled across some interesting research from Brown Brothers Harriman market technician Scott Davies... some research that really rounds out my take by adding a time dimension to the space dimension.  To the best he could compare apples to apples (comparing this recovery move to historical ones going back top the 40's), his work shows that the least painful correction after a rally if this magnitude is a 12.3% dip; the other five since then were even bigger pullbacks. Though records were made to be broken, as an investor, it's not wise to plan on an exception to the norm.  In any case, his math and history suggests the S&P 500 should tack on losses of another 4% to 10% to the pullback of 7% we're currently sitting on. With a dip of that magnitude, the market will have fallen a total of 11% to 17%.... right in line with my call for a 15% correction.  The added detail is his expected timeframe. Based on the same historical corrections that he and I both studied, he calculated that those corrections also lasted an average of 21 weeks. If the top from mid-January is the starting point, then the correction shouldn't land and reverse until June. Yikes.  Bear in mind these are just averages, and we could log slightly different results this time. I don't think it's wise to expect significantly different results though - we're just fighting too much in the way of historical patterns.  Over the last week while stocks were on the rise, we were able to observe yet another problem with a 'recovery now' theory... volume, or lack thereof. Though not completely absent, the buying volume has yet to be impressive or decisive. The bulls can get away with that and push stocks higher for a while... perhaps even push them back up to the 20-day and 100-day moving average lines at 1091. The bulls can't, however, get over these serious technical hurdles until we start to see more buying volume than selling volume.  By the way, U.S. markets are going to be closed on Monday, January 15th in observation of President's Day. Also, don't forget Valentine's Day is Sunday, February 14th.