Welcome to the weekend, folks, and aren't you glad to have this past week behind us? It wasn't a bearish week per se. It was just dead. After the S&P 500 moved from 2031.92 to close at 2038.26 on Monday, there was never a close more than two points above or one point below that level.
So what? The "so what" is, if the market doesn't budge for four straight days in November, it usually means something. My fear is, this time it means investors know there's no real room for more upside, but nobody wants to be the first dump their positions and lock in their gains.
We'll look at the situation in more detail in a moment. The first thing we want to cross off our to-do list is a quick look at last quarter's numbers for not one, not two, but three of the micro cap equities we've profiled for you within the last few months. All we can say is, these companies have certainly done their part.
Three For Three
I don't know if they all got together and planned to overwhelm us with data or what, but we got last quarter's results from Giggles N Hugs (GIGL), Hydrocarb Energy (HECC), and CES Synergies (CESX) all on Thursday. If you're a regular reader of the stuff we post at the site, then you already know we covered each of these earnings reports and put them in perspective for you. There's no need to reinvent the wheel, so mostly we're just going to direct you to the comments made at the website. If you don't have time to go to the site right now though, we'll give you the key numbers below. In no particular order...
CES Synergies (CESX): Last quarter's revenue was up 17% on year-over-year basis, and up 9.8% on a sequential basis.
Hydrocarb Energy (HECC): Revenue was up 5.6% on a sequential basis between last quarter and two quarters ago. The year-ago comparison isn't meaningful, as the company deliberately slowed production in the meantime to make some upgrades to its output capacity. While 5.6% may not be a huge figure, bear in mind that oil is 21% cheaper last quarter than it was two quarters ago. Volume (of oil) is ramping up quite nicely.
Giggles N Hugs (GIGL): Last quarter's revenue was up 49% year-over-year, and up 11% on a sequential basis.
Ladies and gents, it is what it is. These companies are growing just like they said they would... and just like we said they would. The rest of the market may or may not see it yet, but numbers don't lie. It may take a while for these stocks to pay off, but that's the case for most of the best opportunities. They're usually worth the wait.
Retail Sales Rock
If a picture really is worth a thousand words - and I believe it is - how about I save everyone some time and just show you a picture of the retail sales trend without going into a long diatribe? [This diatribe will me a short one.]
Yes, October's retail sales were posted today, and though they were a little disappointing on the surface (compared to forecasts), I still see a lot of positive momentum here when looking at the bigger retail spending picture; the media's commentary on retail sales lacked perspective.
I know I promised not to chatter on about it, and I won't. I'll just preface the next two charts by once again explaining (1) the retail sales change for any given month is inexplicably compared to the previous month and therefore subject to seasonality skew, and (2) the forecasters may or may not have any idea what they're talking about.
'Nuff said? OK. In October, retail sales "only" grew 0.3%, with or without automobiles. The pros were expecting 0.6% growth, with or without automobiles. Before you freak out, taking now-much-cheaper gasoline out of the equation, retail spending grew 0.5% overall last month.
Here's the percent-change chart on a year over year basis. Spending still looks consistently solid for the long haul, even if not red hot, from this point of view.
Here's the trend of the raw/total retail spending data. Still looks like a nice, solid uptrend to me.
My point is, of all the things to worry about right now, consumer spending is the least of them.
Speaking of retail, the guys over at the Elite Opportunity have been discussing - and trading - retail stocks lately, naming specific names here at the advent of the busiest shopping time of the year. Makes sense. What are they trading, and more important, how are they trading them? That information is for members only. Here's how to become one, or cut and paste this link: https://www.smallcapnetwork.com/pages/SCNEO/v1/
Zzzzzzz
Actually, today's market discussion is going to be short and sweet, mainly because there's not a whole lot to add to yesterday's take. Stocks are still feeling the weight of their recent gains, and the longer they stagnate here, the more likely it is the bulls will lose their nerve and quietly decide to head to the sidelines. You guys know how that works though. What starts as a slow, mild fade can quickly turn into a full-blown selling avalanche once everyone else figures out what's going on.
Be that as it may, the S&P 500 clearly hasn't fallen under the pivotal 2020 level yet, nor has the VIX popped back above its 20-day moving average line at 14.8. Until both of those things happen, any discussion of a pullback is a purely-theoretical exercise.
I suppose it's possible the market stalled this past week just because the rally needed a break, to regroup before the next leg of the rally. I think that's undue optimistic thinking though. What I see when I look at the chart above is a market that's trying to roll over. Most traders seem to know that's what should happen, but there are just enough traders left who are willing to put up a fight, confident stocks can only move higher.... to heck with the crazy valuation.
Again though, none of my bearish mindset matters until the S&P 500 breaks under 2020.
For what it's worth, here's the updated version of our breadth and depth chart. Same story. Even with Friday's overall bullishness, the "up" volume and the advancers were below average, while the "down" volume and the decliners were above average. I have to wonder why.
With all of that being said, a weekend is a virtual eternity in the trading world. We'll have to take the market's temperature again on Monday to see what kind of mood investors are in then. I've still got a feeling stocks are due for a quick lull before Thanksgiving, but traders have a short memory and may well come back to the trading week on Monday not remembering stocks are overbought. Let's get together again then.