Maybe it's just a flare-up of my paranoia, but there's something not quite right about today's follow-through on Friday's bullish move. It's not just a funny gut feeling I have either. We've got some specific, quantifiable problems with the rally thus far, one of which we'll dissect today.
To be clear, I'm still cautiously bullish based on the shape of the bars between Wednesday and Friday of last week. While there are still a couple of hurdles that need to be cleared before we can breathe a little easier, we can't ignore the bullish signal that materialized over those three days. I'm just saying there's still a lingering worry or two that may come back to haunt us before it's all said and done.
We'll look at the red flags in a second. The first item we need to cross of our checklist is a look at - and analysis of - today's action.
Right on Cue
While today's advance only got the S&P 500 back to about where it closed two Friday's ago, the last two days were still very important, bullish days when observed in the context of how and where they materialized. Said more plainly, after the sharp selling two weeks ago and early last week, a bounce was likely. Wednesday's and/or Thursday's doji bars were clues a pivot was being made. And, right on cue, the bulls came roaring back.
Had the bulls roared for just one day, it might be dismissible. Two days in a row though? I think we have to respect the clues at face value even if we know the rally's not going to move higher in a perfectly straight line.
To really appreciate just how much bounce potential is packed into stocks, though, I find myself continually coming back to the weekly chart of the S&P 500 and its volatility index. It's in this timeframe we can see just how sharp last week's moves were, and how equally sharp the reversals of those moves were.
The only real pitfall I see in our immediate future is resistance at the 200-day moving average line. For the S&P 500, it's at 1905, and the index suspiciously brushed it today without going over it. On the flipside, the NASDAQ Composite actually closed above its 200-day moving average line today, so maybe it won't be a problem. Either way, my bigger mental target for the S&P 500 right now is the 1965 area, where two other key moving average lines are converging. As you're about to read though, we don't necessarily have to move in a straight line to get all the way there.
Things That Make You Go Hmmm
So what's wrong with today's bullishness? Remember back on October 10th when we explained how most of the market looked like it was falling off of a cliff but the utilities sector was starting to rally? Our interpretation was, it was a sign investors were assuming a steeper selloff was inevitable, and were positioning in safe havens in an effort to shield themselves from the pullback [a call that was spot-on, by the way].
Yeah, well, all those sectors that were falling then have participated in the rebound in the meantime. The utilities sector that was rallying then, however, is also rallying with the rest of the market. In fact, utility stocks were today's second-best performers.
It's a bit surprising, as this rebound so far looks and seems like traders believe it has legs. They're not putting most of their money where their mouth is, though - finding safe havens still seems to be a priority... an idea supported by the fact that gold as well as bonds were up firmly today, even though the stock market was too. Something's got to give soon, and knowing there's a little more doubt in the market's ether than first assumed, we can't rule anything out yet.
Red flag #2: There was very little volume behind Monday's advance. We need to see the number of bulls increase rather than decrease if the rally is to last.
My guess? Stocks are going to pull back just a little, regroup, and then rekindle the buying effort. The next time it'll be on higher volume though, and the next time we'll see the 200-day moving average line hurdled. We'll save this discussion for another day, however. Right now we want to hear what John Monroe over at the Elite Opportunity also said about the odd strength from places like bonds and gold today. He observes:
"...I say this because although TLT did manage to confirm a big blow off top earlier last week, it does have every right to retrace some of that move back to the upside as soon as this week, before potentially moving back lower again. If it does, we'll likely see some weakness in stocks around the same time TLT decides to rally, at least for a bit anyway. It will be at that point, whereby we should know if bonds are done for a while or not. Assuming they are, this bodes well for stocks because like the old Wall Street adage goes, money has no home, so the sharp rotation out of bonds last week continues to bode well in stocks for the time being."
As he points out, though the 20-Year Treasury Fund (TLT) may be due for a little weakness in the very near-term, the jury's still out on whether or not bonds are done with their bigger-picture rally.
John had a little more to say about bonds, but he also had something to say about gold. In fact, he gave Elite Opportunity subscribers a specific gold-based trading idea today. I can't divulge the details of the recommendation, or even what direction he's thinking gold is poised to move here; you'll have to sign up as an EO member to find out. I'll just say this - there are some strange things going right now, with stocks, bonds, and gold all moving higher today. Something's got to give soon, and there's opportunity in that brewing move. I'll also add that John's rationale makes a lot of sense at a point in time when our chart of all the major category ETFs below doesn't make a lot of sense.
Once again John has proved he's the master of turning the bigger conceptual picture into something actionable. If you're not an EO member, you're not getting everything you can out of the market. Here's how to get an edge. Or, cut and paste this link: https://www.smallcapnetwork.com/?vmpd_ckstr[click_track]=Newsletter&vmpd_ckstr_redirect=/pages/SCNEO/v1
Staffing 360 Conference Call
Last but not least, I know a bunch of you guys have been following the saga of Staffing 360 Solutions (STAF), which we presented to you on May 20th. Well, by the time you're reading this, the company's official Q3 numbers will have probably been posted; they were due after the close on Monday.
Of course, you should already have a good idea of what to expect. Bryan Murphy posted the unofficial Q3 results back on October 15th. They were pretty impressive too, as in triple-digit-growth impressive. I'm willing to bet whatever official numbers submitted for the third quarter will be close to the numbers being touted last week. Those numbers won't be out until after print-time though.
The results aren't what I wanted to talk to about, however... at least not directly. What I wanted to leave you with today was a reminder that Staffing 360 Solutions would be hosting an earnings conference all tomorrow (Tuesday) morning at 11:00 am EST.
The teleconference can be accessed by dialing (877) 407-0778 within the United States, (800) 756-3429 within the UK, or (201) 689-8565 for international callers. Participants should dial in 10 minutes prior to the beginning of the call. Or, the conference call will be simultaneously webcast and available at: http://www.investorcalendar.com/event/173333
There will be a playback of the teleconference available until November 4, 2014. To listen to the playback dial (877) 660-6853 within the United States or (201) 612-7415 internationally and use replay ID number: 13593807.
That's all for today. And don't forget, if you want to act on John Monroe's gold trade, sooner is better to sign up for a free two-week trial to the Elite Opportunity service.