Well folks, you don't need me to tell you things are getting real interesting for the market. It looks like the bulls are defying the odds, standing ready to break out when the time is right. In fact, technically speaking, the S&P 500 broke out today. It's certainly not the ideal scenario for a rally (valuation concerns, mostly), but many fortunes are won and lost when -- and maybe even because -- the market's behaving irrationally. The first thing we need to do is pause for a moment and let you know today's newsletter is largely an homage to today's Elite Opportunity newsletter. I was going to show you the chart I'm going to show you anyway, as the things I thought were curious and worth noting were also the things John Monroe thought were curious and worth noting. But, John added a little something to his take that I'm not going to be able to touch on. First things first. Take a look at our updated chart of long-term bonds (TLO), gold (GLD), the U.S. dollar (DXY), and 30-year treasury yields (TYX). You may recall when we last looked at these instruments on February 3rd how we saw hints of reversals on most of these fronts.... bonds and yields in particular. We've not been disappointed. While the U.S. Dollar Index didn't reverse sharply like bonds and yields did, there's no denying it's hit a wall over the past couple of weeks. We'll have to see whether or not this pause for the dollar is just consolidation before the next bullish leg, or the beginning of a rollover. The oddball is (still) gold. Theoretically it should be rising, and even more so if the dollar starts to peel back as many suspect it will. But, it's not. Why? Most likely because gold has been completely commandeered by traders who love or hate gold in a vacuum, and don't really care about the external factors that normally would drive its price higher or lower. Regardless, the shape of these charts and the more recent disconnection of some of these trends strongly suggests a shift in the stock market's undertow... a shift nobody can really see yet. As John Monroe pointed out in today's Elite Opportunity newsletter though, something big is brewing. It's worth mentioning explicitly to you guys here, because we know the market's complete lack of net movement since November has started to lull many of you to sleep. Time to wake up. The obvious follow-up question is, which direction are stocks apt to move once they wake up? This is where it gets tricky. First and foremost, I can't tell you which direction John's bias lies - that's something exclusively for Elite Opportunity subscribers. I can't even tell you what levels he's watching as confirming triggers. I can tell you, however, he's watching the bond market, via TLT (we're using TLO on our chart, but it's the same principle) as his primary clue, and he's using the U.S. dollar as his secondary hint. Makes sense. As he frequently says, money has no home - it's always flowing to the best opportunity from the weakest opportunity. Those are moving targets though, so at least one asset category is always losing and one is always winning. That being said, I will caution you against jumping to conclusions about what's in store based on what you see right now on our chart above. It looks like bonds and gold are falling, which is theoretically bullish for stocks... especially after today's bullish thrist for the stock market (more on that below). But, Monroe's analysis in today's EO newsletter correctly explains there may be good reason to expect reversals seemingly-out-of-nowhere for bonds and the dollar soon. This makes an analysis of the market even trickier to perform right now. Yes, on the surface, between falling bond prices, falling gold prices, and a U.S. dollar that is at least dancing with the idea of weakening, the burgeoning breakout effort from the stock market is rational. But, the market has a tendency to throw some pretty good headfakes. By that I just mean the indices could drop strong hints that a breakout is finally underway, suck everybody in, only to pull the rug out from underneath them all and dole out a nasty pullback. I've seen it happen too many times before to assume it won't happen again. On that note... One of the bullish clues for the S&P 500 would be a move above, and then the establishment of a base above, 2065. Well folks, as you can see, it happened today. You can see what a problem the 2065 mark has been for the S&P 500 lately. If the fourth try is going to be the one that finally works, I can see a wave of relieved investors piling in, convinced the dry spell is over. This may be a trap though... the headfake, so to speak. It would take days to really know whether or not the bulls are serious about breaking out of the recent rut - one day does not make a trend. And as our chart illustrates, it's not like 2065 is the final ceiling we'll have to contend with. For the NASDAQ Composite, the 4811 mark seems to be the big line in the sand, though for the same reason we've already discussed, a move above 4811 alone isn't inherently a bullish clue. This is where the bond market - and maybe gold as well as the dollar - will come into play. As John explained to Elite Opportunity members today, TLT/TLO and the U.S. Dollar Index all have key reversal catalysts in sight that could actually force the stock market to zig when it looks like it's going to zag. That's my long way of saying, as tempting as the stock market seems today, this isn't a time to assume things are the way they seem. It's better to take your time and be right, and maybe miss part of a move, than it is to be early and end up being on the wrong side of a trend. If the breakout is for real, it will be crystal clear on multiple fronts. We don't have anything close to that clarity yet. And yes, I still contend one of the market's biggest stumbling blocks and potential pullback catalysts is its crazy valuation. We're going to talk about this in more detail later on this week, but as of today, the S&P 500 is priced at a trailing P/E of 18.0 and a forward-looking P/E of 17.3. Both are beyond extreme. It looks like traders can temporarily forget about that fact for a few hours at a time, and maybe even a few days at a time. More than anything else though, I have to believe that frothy valuation is what's kept the market from making any prolonged rally since November. This could change in an instant, without warning. We saw crazy valuations in the late 90's, and nobody thought a thing about them. It could happen again, meaning there may come a time soon where the crazy P/E levels are of no concern and stocks rally like there's no tomorrow. We'll just have to wait and see. Regardless of whether it's a big move higher or a big move lower in the cards though, after nearly three months of consolidation, it's coming... and probably soon. We need to be ready. Why? I'll let John Monroe's wisdom from today's Elite Opportunity newsletter close things out with an answer to the question. John writes: "We continue to believe we're on the verge of a pretty big move across all of the markets. Although nothing is ever guaranteed, everything we're starting to see sure points to a market defining move much sooner than later. With that being said, there's a time to be aggressive and a time to be patient. Contrary to what many believe, the most money is often made following these type of slowly developing scenarios. As a matter of fact, it's usually our thinking less is more. Meaning, there are pivotal times throughout the year when the most money is made, and if you're prowess and strategies are to take advantage of the markets' next big move, a little patience goes a long way." He's exactly right - there are only a handful of truly trade-worthy moves made in a year. The rest of the time is just noise. The stagnation since November is an example of that noise. It's not going to last forever though. A move is brewing, and has been for a while. Just be sure you're on the right side of it. If you'd like to be one of the first investors to know about any major market moves underway, the Elite Opportunity team has a better grip on them than anyone else I've ever met. They've got their eye on stocks, bonds, yields, gold, the dollar, and a bunch of other stuff we didn't even get to talk about today. If you want to be out in front of trends rather than chasing them, become an EO member today. Here's how, or just cut and paste this link:https://www.smallcapnetwork.com/pages/SCNEO/v1/