Welcome back to the trading week, fellow small cap fans! And, for those of you who've been acting on our suggestions, we've got a big update on one of our recent ideas. Remember Staffing 360 Solutions (STAF)? We gave you the scoop on this idea back on May 20th, explaining how this niche player in the cybersecurity arena was in the right place at the right time. The company has done quite a bit since then to convince us our initial opinion was on target, but today's news was a huge leap forward to that end. After the market closed on Monday, Staffing 360 Solutions announced its credit facility through Wells Fargo Bank has been increased to $15 million.
While the credit line hasn't been earmarked for anything specific other than for working capital, it's pretty reasonable to assume at least much of the liquidity is going to be used to facilitate more acquisitions for STAF... a growth strategy that's been working out quite nicely, by the way. Honestly though, I'm far more impressed by the lender - Wells Fargo.
It's not the kind of thing you hear too often, but it's still a reality - big banks tend not to bother with companies that aren't the proverbial "real deal". The fact that Wells Fargo is not only a lender to Staffing 360 Solutions but has just upped the company's credit limit speaks volumes about the confidence the big bank has in what STAF is doing and where it's going.
And in case you've forgotten, as of late June STAF was on pace to generate nearly $130 million in annul revenue, up from less than $10 million just a couple quarters earlier. Within a couple of years the top line should reach $300 million, provided the organization simply continues to expand via acquisitions, as it has been doing for several months now. The enhanced credit facility from Wells Fargo is going to go far in making it happen.
Anyway, we just wanted to remind you about the opportunity, and update you on the latest news.
If you'd like to get acquainted - or reacquainted - with Staffing 360 Solutions, the SCN research page is the easiest place to do so. To really understand why IT security staffing is such a hot button though, Bryan Murphy had some eye-popping projections a couple of weeks ago. Wow.
Portfolio Update - Action Needed
Well ladies and gents, I've been mulling it over for a few days, and based on the action we've seen over the past week or so we're finally going to go ahead and pull the plug on our remaining positions in Astec (ASTE) and Laclede Group (LG). They'll be removed from the newsletter's officially unofficial portfolio as of Tuesday's opening price. Yes, we got strong bounces from both last week, but both stocks also hit suspicious highs today and we have to think there's more downside than upside for each from here.
For Astec, all it took was a brush of the 50-day and 100-day moving average lines on Monday to send the stock back to where it started. This is the second time since late July we've seen these lines be a problem for the bulls. We haven't seen the stock find any real floors, however, so we'll consider this bounce a gift.
Ditto for Laclede Group, mostly. It bumped into its 20-day and 50-day moving average lines today and had no problem rolling over. Let's get out while we can still get a decent price. I don't want to wait to see a lower low before closing it out.
That's the name of the game, folks... being proactive and decisive. Better to get out on your terms rather than let the market force you out on its terms.
We'll be booking about a 1% loss on Laclede, but we're banking a 6% gain on Astec. It's not buy-a-Ferrari kind of money, but in this market environment, we'll take it. Besides, we're still up real nicely from our trades on Hurco (HURC) and ANI Pharma (ANIP). I think we locked on a 23% score on Hurco and a 14% win on ANI, and our overall portfolio is up nicely for the year.
While we don't have any open positions right now, it's not like we're not seeing new possibilities pop up. We're just a little hesitant to jump on new bullish/long positions when the broad market is still overdue for a significant correction. Three out of four stocks move in the same direction as the overall market, and we have no desire to trade against the grain if we don't have to.
Flipside: There are some stocks we found with last week's scans that sure look like they could rally even if stocks as a whole melt down from here. We'll discuss some of the best of the best of those potential trades later this week.
Hey, by the way, if you're not getting enough trading activity from the SmallCap Network newsletter, here's your best alternative. Those guys spend their entire day ferreting out trading opportunities.
Is the Flash in the Pan Already Over?
I've said it before but I'll say it again now.... the biggest imposition the bulls create for themselves is a complete unwillingness to pace their buying. Between Friday and today, the S&P 500 had been up as much as 1.9%. It's a strong move, but in this shaky environment, it's not the kind of advance any buyer wants to follow. Sure enough, many traders weren't even willing to stand pat today, selling the stocks they had bought just since Friday. The S&P 500 had given up half of today's intraday gain by the time the closing bell rang.
So the dead-cat bounce is already over? We certainly wouldn't rule the possibility out, but before we get into the discussion let's take a look at our usual chart of the S&P 500. As you'll immediately see, the index never made it up to our line in the sand at 1955 before petering out. The VIX, however, did make it all the way back to its 20-day moving average line at 13.8, only to stop its tumble there and start pushing off of that mark.
Based on what we've seen thus far, we have to lean bearishly even though the index didn't make at all the way back to a ceiling that was apt to be a bearish catalyst. The reason we're willing to remain on the pessimistic side of the fence is the clear lack of volume behind the two-day rally. Friday's was tepid, but we could have chalked it up to the approaching weekend. Today's volume was downright pathetic though. Investors just don't trust the effort. I can't say we blame them.
To be fair, we wouldn't be shocked to see the buyers make one more go of it and test the technical ceiling at 1955 before the rollover materialized. Until and unless the S&P 500 can actually get above 1955 though, we'll give the benefit of the doubt to the bears. And, if the S&P 500 happens the break the prior low at 1905 (which would break a lot of other floors too), that should be really ugly for stocks. Let's cross that bridge when we come to it though.