The market may not have completely imploded on Wednesday, but boy is it struggling to keep itself propped up. One more rough day and it may finally fall off the edge of the cliff. We'll just have to wait and see, but I'm in agreement with John Monroe on the current situation - the path of least resistance for stocks from here seems to be pointing in a downward direction. I know we've said this before, but it bears repeating now... John Monroe's Elite Opportunity newsletter has a way of pointing out things that matter, but things that aren't crystal clear with just a quick glance. I wish I could detail for you exactly what John Monroe is seeing and passing along to EO members, but I can't. Telling you wouldn't be fair to John or Elite Opportunity subscribers. But, I will tell you he's leaning even a little more bearishly than I am based on some of the context and clues he's seeing that we don't get to discuss much here in this newsletter. It's just reassuring to know I'm not alone in my doubts. In fact, I'm willing to bet that's the reason a lot of the professionals and money management/hedge-fund type of subscribers to the EO like it so well - it's a sound source of second opinions in a market environment that's about as misleading and deceptive as I've ever seen. Anyway, here's the daily chart of the S&P 500. We broke well under the 100-day moving average line (gray) to hit a low of 2048.38 before bouncing back to a close of 2059.69... right at the 100-day average. It was technically a victory for the bears, but there's no denying the bulls made a good showing. As before, the make-or-break line on the daily chart is 2040. Anything below that level spells trouble. The make-or-break line on the weekly chart is now above 2040, however. You'll recall in some of the recent newsletters the S&P 500's weekly chart has been putting pressure on a long-term support line. Well, that floor is coming back into play again. Take a look. The bulls have been on these ropes before, only to come back swinging and stage an impressive comeback. The undertow is shifting for the worst though, in that we didn't test the upper edge of a long-term bullish channel (red) before testing the floor of that channel this time around. We may want to give the S&P 500 enough leeway to test the 200-day moving average line (green) at 2013 before assuming the worst. Honestly though, if 2040 breaks and the lower edge of a long-term trading range breaks, I'm not sure how much support the 200-day line is going to be able to offer. We're not over the edge yet, but I think John's right - this all has a bearish feeling to it now, after months and months of unchecked bullishness with next to no decent corrective moves. Stay tuned. Perhaps more important, if you're looking for a second - or even third - opinion about what's in store for the broad market, I wasn't kidding above when I said there are several institutional-level subscribers to the Elite Opportunity newsletter. I understand it though. Honestly, I'm kind of surprised John even bothers marketing the EO to individuals; the quality is just that good. I'm not going to complain though, as I'm one of those subscribers benefiting from Monroe's higher-level research. If you'd like to boost your gains with access to the same commentary and insights several professional investors already get (and love), here's how to become an Elite Opportunity subscriber. Or, cut and paste this link: https://www.smallcapnetwork.com/pages/SCNEO/v1/ . The 30-day money-back guarantee means you can even take a risk-free test drive. Economic Update, In Pictures (Mostly) While I know most of you probably want to hear more of our thoughts on the market's likely direction and less about the economy, we can't stress enough it's important to keep a good grip on both. See, when it's all said and done, one ultimately drives the other. The nice part about this reality is, you don't have to be an economist with a PhD to keep tabs on what the economic environment is like. Your friends here at the SCN can do it for you, with a lot of charts and just a few words. I say off all of this as a way to let you know we've got a decent-sized handful of economic-data charts to show you today that's been piling up all week. Don't worry - we're not going into a diatribe regarding any of them. In most cases they only thing you really need to do is look at the chart, glean its meaning, plant the seed in the back of your head, and move on. Fair enough? OK. Let's just get started, proceeding in the same order the information was unveiled beginning this week. Personal spending and personal incomes were both pretty solid for February, up 0.1% and 0.4%, respectively. Interestingly, though spending slumped in December and January, it was never because wages were falling. The Case-Shiller Home Price Index continues to say home values are on the rise, gaining 4.6% in January on a year-over-year basis. The leveling off we've seen over the past few months is normal for the time of year. The Conference Board's measure of consumer confidence edged higher in March, to 101.3. Although the similar Michigan Sentiment Index score fell in March, we can see on both fronts that consumers are feeling better and better about the current shape of things. [Note that undue optimism may be a contrarian bearish indicator.] The Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI) as well as the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Index were both pretty weak and/or fell March. The recent weakness on both fronts should be a bigger red flag than the market seems to be noticing right now. Last but not least - and maybe as a hint of what to expect from the Department of Labor on Friday - payroll processor ADP posted a surprisingly significant dip in the number of new jobs it counted as created last month. Economists were expecting job growth of 225,000, but ADP said there were only 189,000 new payrolls added in March. The official DOL data regarding job creation doesn't always jive with the ADP figure, but trend-wise, the two tend to move in tandem. It makes you wonder if there's a dose of bad news coming at the end of the week. As of the latest look, economists expect the unemployment rate to hold steady at 5.5%, and are looking for new payrolls to fall back from February's total of 288,000 to 250,00 for March. Remember though, these same economists overshot with their guess about the ADP number. That's it - you've now got a good grip on all of this week's (so far) economic news. That being said... While Thursday's unemployment claims numbers are important, there's no doubt Friday's unemployment report and job-growth data is the week's main event. It's a bit of an issue, however, as Friday is one of those rare days where the federal government's offices and agencies will be open but the stock market will be closed (in observance of Good Friday). Normally we don't publish a newsletter on days the market is closed, mainly because there's just not much to talk about. I'm mulling sending at least a short edition in Friday, however, just so you have the usual "rest of the story" we offer about each month's employment report. I haven't decided yet. We'll play it by ear. If it's something urgent or earth-shattering enough, we'll send a newsletter that day even though the market's going to be closed. If it's something that can wait until Monday though, then we'll wait. In any case, that's it for today. In the meantime though, don't forget to sign yourself up for the free stock pick alerts the Elite Opportunity team is sending out to anybody who wants them. You can sign up for e-mail alerts, text messages to your phone, or both. My advice? At least register for the text alerts sent to your smartphone, since they're delivered before the e-mail alerts are. Either way, for the price of "free", it's tough to go wrong. Sign up today! Here's how, or just cut and paste this link: https://www.smallcapnetwork.com/pages/SCNEOL/v1/