News Details – Smallcapnetwork
Eliminate Market Noise and See the Bigger Picture
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February 2, 2024

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PDT

Well would you believe it? Today it's Spain and not Greece. At least the media is mixing it up a bit now. I guess their continued commentary on Greece just isn't pulling the desired attention and traffic anymore, so they've decided to now blame Spain for the U.S. market's woes. How about we just call a spade a spade and admit that the market goes up and the market goes down on a day-to-day basis and sometimes there's really nobody to blame but speculators and traders who are hustling every day to make money in the market. That's what makes a market anyway, right? Advertisement Could This Tiny Stock Be The "Next Subway"? The folks at Penny Stock Research just released a free report that details 3 LEGITIMATE penny stocks that could soar in the second half of 2012. One's a tiny restaurant stock trading for 80 cents that's poised to become the next Subway... Click here to get the FREE report with all the details! Advertisement In the short-term, yes. In the long-run, no. I'll explain further below. Yesterday, the NDX broke its triangle wedge to the upside, ran a bit, reversed its direction and then ran a bit into the close. Net result at the end of yesterday? The market was higher. Today, the markets pulled back on the open and at this point it would appear at first glance the market is headed for lower levels. Not so quick. While most short-term swing and day traders pay abnormally close attention to hourly and daily charts, what's the best way for the average investor to play the market who doesn't have the time to sit and watch every tick all day? The short answer... longer-term charts. Most traders and investors get wrapped up in every micro-move the markets make on a daily basis. Some consider it fun to do, while others can't help themselves but watch every move, especially when they have a sizable position based on their individual net worth. For some, it might be a few hundred shares, for others it might be thousands of shares. Everyone's financial situation is different, so regardless of the size of your position, if it means something significant to you, you're likely going to pay very close attention. It's just human nature. Daily charts, and specifically hourly charts, are enough to make anyone crazy unless that's what you're relying on for very short-term trading profits. As you know, we are always providing commentary on the daily charts of the major indexes and select stocks in an effort to keep you posted and informed on trend changes before anyone else. However, if you're like most who don't have the time or interest in micro-managing the market's every move, the best possible solution for you is to watch the news specific to the stocks you own and maintain a focus on the bigger picture charts, primarily the weekly and monthly charts. One of the most important traits to consistently exercise in order to be successful in the market is to sustain emotional indifference. In other words, keep the emotional highs and lows out of the picture. The market is going to provide you with all of the highs and lows you can stomach, so take the emotion and simply put it aside. If I had to guess, I'd say emotions cost investors more money than picking the wrong stock from time-to-time. When it comes to investing, most investors have this interesting phenomenon about their psyches that puts fear and greed at the forefront of their investing decisions, as well as never wanting to be wrong about a decision they've made. I call it preservation of pride. Stock goes down, they buy more or hang on because they just don't want to be wrong. Stock goes up, they're quick to take profits because they want to celebrate a win. I'm sure you've been there. We've all been there, so what does this all have to do with charts? One excellent discipline to employ is to maintain a focus on the bigger picture charts. Unless you're day trading, a focus on the bigger picture charts can not only provide extremely interesting insight, it's also one of the fail safe ways to keep emotions out of the picture on a day-to-day basis. The most noise with charts obviously starts with the smallest of timeframes. As you work your way up to the weekly and monthly charts, that's when the bigger picture becomes more clear. The weekly and monthly charts can often tell you the real underlying story of the market or stock in question because the hourly and daily charts are littered with speculative trading... traders and market makers jostling for position on a hour-by-hour basis looking to scalp short-term profit. Weekly and monthly charts take a lot of that away and leave you with what the market truly thinks about that stock or index. Even when it comes to short-term swing trading, a weekly chart can be very helpful. I've included two charts here of the NDX, a daily and a weekly. The daily snap shot chart at first glance here might suggest to you that this market may be looking like it wants to move lower. However, the weekly chart suggests everything is still intact for this market to potentially move higher on a week-by-week basis. Why? Over the last few weeks on the weekly chart, the NDX has made higher highs. As a matter of fact, the NDX could move down and break the 2500 level and the weekly chart would still be intact. Picking your entry points based on weekly charts can often prove very prudent. It's all about risk reward. If NDX moved slightly below 2500, I might be willing to pick up some QQQ call options a month or two out simply because my stop loss would be set at the previous week's low, thus giving me a favorable entry with minimum downside if I'm wrong. This strategy can be employed with indexes, individual stocks or even sport's betting for that matter because in my opinion, the longer-term charts rarely lie.