News Details – Smallcapnetwork
Stocks End the Day Right on the Fence. Figures.
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February 2, 2024

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PDT

Things may not have been as rough on Thursday as they were on Wednesday, but the failure to stage a convincing snap-back rally today is a problem in itself. We've now logged four straight days of weakness, and the bulls don't seem interested in doing anything to stop it. That's not to say there are a bunch of sellers out there, because there aren't - volume remains moderate. We're getting to the point, though, where the bulls are going to have to step up and stop the bleeding now, or deal with a much bigger problem in the near future. While we generally try and lay out everything on the table first and then share our conclusions with you, today we're going to do thing in reverse and let you know there's still nothing definitive in the stars. But, boy are we close to kick-starting a pullback. I'll just real quickly show you what I see that's wrong and right with every chart, starting with the S&P 500's daily bars. It's on this chart we can see the huge floor at 2040 is still intact. That's where the index hit a low in early March, and it's where the S&P 500's lower 20-day Bollinger band is now. We can also see in this timeframe the index is (still) below its 20-day and 50-day moving average lines, which from a pure momentum perspective is bearish. I don't think it's coincidence the 2040 level is a factor on the daily chart, since it's also a factor in the weekly timeframe. That's right - the 2040 level is where the S&P 500's long-term rising support line currently rests. Here's a zoomed-in, updated version of the weekly chart we showed you yesterday. As was the case then, we're knocking on the door of what's likely THE biggest support level of the entire bull market so far. The weekly chart of the S&P 500 also reminds us the VIX is nowhere near peak levels that normally coincide with a market bottom (suggesting the bottom hasn't been made yet). The NASDAQ Composite has also yet to break under its key floors, though like the S&P 500, it's close. The composite stopped and tried to reverse after brushing its 50-day moving average line and lower Bollinger band today. It's a pretty significant win for the bulls, not breaking below what's arguably its most important floor right now. The updated weekly chart of the NASDAQ still tells us the index is being repelled by a brush of a long-term ceiling (dashed), and also shows us we have room to fall back before finding a key long-term floor. And, like the VIX, the VXN is alarmingly NOT at peak levels generally seen with major lows for stocks. We're not showing you all these charts to confuse you. We're showing you these charts to make the point that the market could go either way from here. It's better to wait for a more solid proposition than it is to force a trade when the odds of success are 50/50 and the potential gain is rather minimal. That is to say, I'd take a 50/50 shot for a quick 20% gain. But, being realistic, the most the market is apt to gain from here (before running out of gas) is maybe 3% to 4%, and there's that risk of a dip of about the same size. What's the point of forcing a trade right now, you know? Let's do the smart thing and wait for a risk that's actually worth taking. With that being said... If I had to make a bet right now, I'd lean bearishly. It seems like John Monroe over at the EO is thinking defensively too, in that he sold a couple of the names in the Elite Opportunity portfolio this afternoon, including locking in an 85% gain on his JetBlue (JBLU) trade. There are some other red flags I see waving as well we don't get to talk about here in the newsletter, and as usual, today's Elite Opportunity newsletter pointed out some things that helped me get an even better grip on the bigger picture. So, while we're not quite past the point of no return yet, I've got a hunch the bears are going to win this round. I'll try and share some of those offbeat red flags with you sometime in the next few days if the more blatant ones we discussed above don't fully materialize. While we've yet to take this final step off the edge of the cliff, I can promise you that if you wait until it happens to start thinking defensively, it'll cost you. The time to plan something is before the event happens, so you can take the knee-jerk, emotionally-driven option off the table and focus on logical, rational ways of defending yourself against a more significant correction. Great, but how do you do that? We looked at some ways to hedge your portfolio against market dips back on March 3rd. Though it was a collection of tips and tricks that ended up being about two weeks early, they still stand - bearish ETFs and then put options are the most sensible way to deal with a falling market. Even then, you don't want to go it alone. If you really want to survive a marketwide dip and maybe even make some money off of a pullback, the Elite Opportunity service is absolutely your best bet. You may recall it was the EO that suggested the ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ (SQQQ) back on March 5th right in front of a sizable pullback. I think that trade was up as much as 10% at one point. And that pick was just one the Elite Opportunity sent out to everybody on the free stock-picking list. John Monroe and his team send out market-based ETF trades (in addition to their regular stock picks) to full members on a regular basis. I think it's pretty safe to say John's got another such pick on standby for Elite Opportunity members. He's just waiting for his final piece of bearish evidence, which might show up tomorrow. We'll see. My point is, if profitable short-term swing trades capitalizing on the market's volatility is the missing piece of your portfolio, the Elite Opportunity is the solution. John has a knack for spotting the market's near-term tops and bottoms, and better yet, he knows how to turn those calls into actionable trades. Bottom line? If the market's impending pullback has you spooked, do yourself a favor and let John and his team walk you through it in a way that not only shields you from the worst of it, but might just help you make a few bucks in the process. Here's the deal, or cut and paste this link: https://www.smallcapnetwork.com/pages/SCNEO/v1/