News Details – Smallcapnetwork
Our 2013 Stock-Picking Report Card. Plus, January's Realities.
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February 2, 2024

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PDT

Hello friends and fellow traders. Since we won't be publishing anything tomorrow because of the holiday, we want to go ahead and tell you this now.... Happy New Year! It's hard to believe the next turn of the calendar will end 2013 and begin 2014. Where does the time go? Anyway, we wanted to take a moment to say thank you for being part of the SmallCap Network community in 2013. We've said it before but we'll say it again - you guys are the best and smartest group of traders in the world, and that makes running the site and publishing this newsletter not only (fairly) easy, but a lot of fun. We hope it's fun and fruitful for you too. And, we hope you and your loved ones have a great - and profitable - 2014. Now, this is normally where your typical newsletter editor would blather on about all the lessons learned in 2013, how he/she thought the coming year was going to shape up, and what you need to do to capitalize on it. I'm not going to do that to you though. The last thing you want to do right now is sift through a couple thousand words before heading out to any New Year's festivities, and honestly, I don't want to write that much here on New Year's Eve either. All I really want to do is take a quick look at all the trading ideas we sent out to you this year, just to see how we did. As they say, read 'em and weep. Or in this case, you may want to read 'em and smile - we had a very good year. Stock In  Out Result 3D Systems 3/25 7/30 56% SemiLEDS 4/17 4/30 85% SemiLEDS 5/6 7/22 -22% Xerox 6/11 9/19 12% Northwest Pipe 6/28 10/1 20% Cryolife 7/8 7/17 16% Manitex 8/8 10/22 30% Kearny Financial 8/19 11/12 3% Global Indemnity 9/3 11/12 2% Ixia 10/7 10/15 -4% Commercial Metals 10/15 11/22 14% Skyworks Solutions 11/22 open 8% Fred's 11/25 open 9% Wabash National 12/5 12/12 -4% Silicon Image 12/16 open 11% Group 1 Automotive 12/23 open 1% Of the sixteen officially unofficial trades we suggested to you guys and gals this year (four of which are still open), we averaged a gain of 15% per trade. Three of them were losses, and thirteen were winners. It's not my best year, but I'll take it. Now, it's possible I missed an idea. If I did, send me an e-mail and I'll add it it to the table. I'm pretty certain we got everything in there, however. The only one that may look like is missing is JC Penney (JCP), which in retrospect wasn't a crystal-clear, blatant recommendation when I got on the soapbox early in the year. It really didn't matter either way, as we said JCP was a sell right around the same price we called it a buy, which would have been a breakeven for you. The only thing I'm disappointed with about 2013's trading is the fact that I didn't get more trading ideas out to you good folks. I try and give you at least two per month, and I'd really like to give you three of four picks every month. Sometimes life and other publishing demands get in the way, though, you know? In fact, that's my only professional New Year's resolution for 2014 ... to give you more - and hopefully even better - stock picks. That being said, I'll go ahead and let you know right now if you're looking for a lot more, and lot better, trading ideas, there's no way in the world I'll ever be able to keep up with John Monroe and his team over at the SmallCap Network Elite Opportunity. Just to put things in perspective, while I devote a ton of time to writing and publishing the newsletter you're reading right now, I also have to devote a ton of time into doing legwork and research for the newsletter, on top of my regular duties at the website itself. In other words, I'm pulled in a lot of directions. The SCN EO staff, however, well, pretty much all they do is find great trading ideas and put them into the Elite Opportunity newsletter. The quantity and the quality of their trades speak for themselves. I think I told you last week if you had just let all 34 of their 2013 long-term picks simply run through today (rather than selling them), their average gain would have been something around 49%. I can't keep up with that trade count here in this newsletter, and so far I've not been able to rival the SmallCap Network Elite Opportunity's returns. Translation: If you want to make more in 2014, now's the time take your trading game to the next level with a subscription to the SCN EO. You can still get the free two-week trial, though I'm honestly not sure if that offer will be available once the new year is here. You may want to go ahead and use the test-drive offer now, before 2014 is officially here. Here's how. Or, copy and paste the following link in your browser: http://www.smallcapnetwork.com/?vmpd_ckstr[click_track]=SCN+Newsletter&vmpd_ckstr_redirect=/pages/SCNEO/v1/ As for the market today, you probably don't need me to tell you not everybody showed up for the dance on Tuesday, and many of the traders that did clock in this morning were out the door by noon. Snoozeville. That's why we're not even going to dissect today's action. We'll just remind you how stocks are overbought thanks to the late-December rally, and this may make them vulnerable heading into the new year. Yes, January is supposed to be a bullish month, with an average gain of 0.95%. Statistically speaking though, there's only about 60% chance the coming month will actually be a bullish one. And, you should also know if January of 2014 ends up being a bearish one, odds are good it will be more than a little bearish. Of the 40% of the time the market books a loss in January, the S&P 500 actually loses an average of 3.95%. The average gain when January is bullish? A whopping 4.1%. Yikes. January is really an all or nothing month, huh? Be cautious. We'll see ya on the other side.