Welcome to the weekend, one and all. And if you're a horse racing fan, then what a weekend it is! In fact, even if you're not into playing the ponies, you can't deny this weekend's Kentucky Derby truly is the most exciting two minutes in sports. SmallCap Network's Premium Advice - Elite Opportunity Actionable short and long-term NASDAQ and NYSE stocks poised for index average beating returns. Experienced daily in-depth analysis of major indices and their ETF's for short-term trading profits. Earnings options plays. Commodity trading precious metals & gold. Currency, bonds and much more! Get in the know now by getting on-the-ground trading and investing advice to make you more money. 30-Day Money Back Guarantee. Click Here and Sign-Up Today! In any case, while I'm personally more into the thrill of the race than I am the science of wagering, we've looked into our crystal ball and mapped out some betting scenarios worth your consideration. Just bear in mind this isn't even close to being something we think you should do with any money you can't afford to lose. But, it sure can be a fun exercise... and occasionally rewarding if you're right. Oh, and just for the record, these aren't all my thoughts on this year's Kentucky Derby contenders. I don't have time or room to write everything on my mind. I'll try just stick with the highlights, beginning with my favorite - Dortmund. He's gone six for six with relative ease (though wins do seem to be getting a little tougher for him), and with cool dry weather on tap for Churchill on Saturday, I've got a feeling Dortmund is just going to do again what's become second nature to him. Next in line is, of course, American Pharaoh. He was 3-to-1 as of the last look, like Dortmund. From what little I've seen so far of American Pharaoh - which admittedly isn't a great deal - is he's a good closer. That could be the difference maker in this longer race. The fact that last year's winning jockey, Victor Espinoza, is mounting up on Pharaoh bodes well. Obvious for co-contenders for a win and a place? Yeah, I agree it's a little too obvious, but I don't see much else out there to put pressure on these two power-houses. That said... You have to like Materiality. At 12-to-1, I don't think he's getting quite enough credit. On the flipside, like I said, this is a longer (and crowded) race and it remains to be seen if Materiality can hold out if he doesn't get out at the front of the pack early on. Then again, given his commanding-from-the-start runs at the Florida Derby and his other two prior races, it would be shocking if he didn't get up towards the front early on Saturday. I'm giving a nod Firing Line too. He's starting in the #10 gate, which as it just so happens is the luckiest - though just barely - post position in Derby history. Oh, and he came within inches of beating Kentucky Derby favorite Dortmund in the Sunland Derby a couple of weeks ago. For what it's worth, John Monroe over at the Elite Opportunity also really likes American Pharaoh and Firing Line, though he added Mubtaahij to his list of top picks. He also likes Frosted and Dortmund, but he's clearly going to be looking for Pharaoh in the winner's circle tomorrow afternoon. I'd pay attention to what John says too. While I'm reasonably good at this, he's better at handicapping 'em than I am. In any case, some of the bets I may or may not end up making with real money include (1) a Trifecta box with Materiality, Dortmund, Firing Line, and American Pharaoh, and/or (2) an Exacta with all combinations ("boxing") of Materiality, Dortmund, and Firing Line, and (3) if you wanted go a little crazy, a Superfecta box with Firing Line, Dortmund, Mubtaahij, Materiality, American Pharaoh, and Frosted. [Disclosure: I don't do Superfectas just because they can be more trouble than they're worth, but I know people who do well with them.] Or, if you wanted to not make your head spin, you could just do what most people do and pick your three favorite horses to win, place, and show. In any case, as I was reading this afternoon's edition of the Elite Opportunity where John shared his Derby picks, he mentioned something that's come up before I think is worth exploring today. I've been around horse racing longer than I've been in the financial markets, and I've been in the financial markets for a fairly long time. By virtue -- though also by sheer circumstances -- of my career and my social circles I've met a lot of "horse people" and I've met a lot of "financial people." If I had to venture a guess, I'd guess both groups can be stratified about the same way...... 80/20. By that, I just mean 20% of these people are shockingly successful in their chosen arena of expertise or focus, while the other 80% are just grinding it out, producing various degrees of mediocrity. And it doesn't really matter what particular field of focus you're talking about. In the horse world you could be talking about trainers, breeders, farms, handicappers, and so on. In the money world you could be talking about money managers and proprietary traders. In all cases of those sub-groups, I've found that 20% of the people are claiming the bulk of that arena's success for themselves, leaving scraps for the other 80%. Here's the really curious thing.... the successful horse people are almost strangely like the successful investment people, and vice versa, even if those horse people don't invest their money in the stock market and even if those stock-pickers don't have any interest in betting horses. It's not a coincidence. After years of observing the same phenomenon in two completely different industries, I'm convinced the top 20% in each group are successful for the same reason. That reason is, they manage their risks, cutting bait when it's clear they should, doubling-down when it's clear they should, and avoiding long shots altogether. (Nick Zito doesn't waste time or effort horses with sub-par pedigrees. Ditto for Spendthrift Farm.) I'll also add how none of the top tier people in either group does anything without a specific plan, which removes emotion from the thought process. Yeah, both groups rely on experience and expertise to produce success, but that experience mostly helps them create a specific plan and accurately weigh the risks associated with any decision... whether it be investing in a stock or betting on a horse. Great, but what does any of this have to do with you, today? I suppose I've always known it without realizing I knew it, but it became clear to me today why John is doing so well for Elite Opportunity subscribers - he knows when to make a bet, he knows how to weigh the odds, he knows when to cut bait, and he knows when to double-down, so to speak. It's all about intelligent asset-deployment, with decisions never being knee-jerk reactions, and a recognition there are opportunity costs involved when allocating assets or money. I suppose it's the "opportunity cost" idea that trips people up the most. It seems simple on the surface, but we've all probably seen it before.... most people trade stocks or pick horses (or play poker, or run a business, or whatever) by the seat of their pants, and struggle to get just so-so results. The value of tapping into the brainpower of the folks running the Elite Opportunity service is, they can really embrace and quantify the ideas of risk and reward, and can think proactively rather than reactively. That's a rarity in the newsletter business. It's not just me saying it either. The EO has the results to back my claim up. This page shows you some of the results the Elite Opportunity achieved in 2013 and 2014. They're amazing. They should be amazing though, since John understands the name of the game is capital management. I really wish I could describe it better, but the only way to do the EO justice is to see it for yourself. You just have to experience it firsthand to see why John's not "betting" on stocks any more than professional handicappers "bet" on horses. It's not a random guess. It's science and math. It's the same reason the same few guys are always sitting at the final table in the so-called World Series of Poker every year. They don't see poker as "betting" or a matter of luck. They see it as a business, weighing the odds, calculating the risks, and deciding to wager more or fold, without letting emotions drive any of these decisions. That discipline is an art and a science, and John's mastered applying the discipline to stock-picking. OK, I'll wrap it up here and close with a final thought.... If it feels like you're always on the defensive with your trading and you've got analysis-paralysis on a daily basis, you need to walk alongside John Monroe via the Elite Opportunity newsletter. Not only is he dishing out trading ideas, he's teaching people to be better traders and better risk-managers along the way. So, here's the best bet you could make all weekend. Or, cut and paste this link: https://www.smallcapnetwork.com/pages/SCNEO/v1/ There's even a 30-day money-back guarantee, so there's no risk to take a test drive.