The market may have been up today, but honestly (and as you might have guessed), we're not impressed... at least not yet. It's going to take a lot more than one good day to jolt the market back into an uptrend, and as we've mentioned a couple of times in recent editions, that just doesn't appear to be in the cards right now. Aside from the sheer fact that stocks have been overbought for a while, we're also fighting the calendar. June is one of the worst months of the year for the market, on average, and also one of the few months where a loss of any size is just as likely as a gain of any size.
The big take-away from today's trading is that the 2072 level was verified as a key floor for the S&P 500. We had a pretty good inkling it was going to be a major support level after stocks rebounded at that mark on Monday, which is also where it happened to bounce back from pullbacks several times over the past couple of months. It's the dark dashed line on our daily chart of the S&P 500 below.
While the floor is still intact, it's not like we have room or reason to be particularly bullish. The S&P 500 is still below its 20-day and 50-day moving average lines. In fact, we're close to seeing the 20-day line (blue) fall under the 50-day moving average line (purple), which is a bearish signal in itself.
It's also worth noting the volume behind today's advance was pitiful. That's not to say the volume behind Friday's and Monday's selloffs was rip-roaring. Today's, however, was even worse. Where are all the bulls? This is just a lack of bears.
To the extent it matters, the NASDAQ Composite looks about the same as the S&P 500. That is, it pushed up and off a major support line yesterday and followed through a little today. But, the 20-day moving average line capped the rally effort with relative ease.
Putting it all together, about the only meaningful conclusion we can glean from today's action is that things are still very much in limbo, holding above a key support level but held back by some key resistance lines. As John Monroe over at the Elite Opportunity has stressed so many times recently though, breakdowns are a process and not an event. This stagnation is just another one of those processes, and is still most likely leading up a decent-sized pullback. The S&P 500 will need to break under the 2072 mark first, however, to get the ball rolling enough to keep it rolling. For the NASDAQ that mark is at 4990.
In the meantime, the right thing to do here is be patient. There's no law that says you have to be entering (or exiting) positions right now.
The market's indices aren't the only thing worth a detailed look today, however. We got a dose of curious economic data too.
Starts Falls, Permits Fly
Last month the number of new houses that were started fell to an annualized pace of 1.036 million, down from a pace of 1.135 million. Economists were expecting 1.1 million. On the other hand, the number of building permits issued grew from 1.14 million to 1.275 million. Analysts were again only looking for a pace of 1.1 million.
With nothing more than just May's numbers and how they compare to April's levels, it's difficult to get a read on the overall health of the housing and construction market right now. That's why we make a point of showing you the longer-term trends of economic data when it's released. Today's not going to be any different. Take a look.
Honestly, I'm not worried about last month's slight dip in housing starts. The bigger trend is still pointed upward. I am, however, quite impressed by the strong surge in the number of building permits that were issued in May. This suggests we should see a solid number of new starts - and inventory - for new homes over the course of the coming five months or so.
Indirectly, it's another bullish argument in support of my optimism regarding homebuilding stocks.
Big News From Two Names You Love
Two of our favorite Featured Stocks had big news this week. Though we discussed both news items at the site, each merits a mention here in the newsletter, as we know a bunch of you have a stake in at least one if not both names.
For Pharmacyte Biotech (PMCB), the big news is that one of its research partners - the University of Northern Colorado - can legally proceed with its research on cannabinoids (better known as marijuana) as a cancer-fighting medicine.
It's no small matter. Just because cannabis is legal for recreational use in Colorado doesn't mean it's not regulated. The same is even true for research of medicinal marijuana - it can't simply be grown and tested willy-nilly. The federal government still has to give researchers the green light. UNC got that green light earlier this week.
James Brumley serves up the details, and explains what Pharmacyte plans on ultimately doing with cannabinoids.
The other interesting news-maker so far this week was SPYR (SPYR). This little company continues to dish out some very compelling surprises.
You likely know SPYR as a relative newcomer to the world of mobile game publishing. As we learned back on May 27th though, that's not all it does well. The company reported back in late May that its nine websites each ranked in the top 1% of most-trafficked websites in the world.
The company took that idea up a notch today, letting us know that its nine websites as a whole collectively rank in the top 250 website networks in the United States in terms of web traffic. That's a huge deal. There are a lot of website companies out there that have been in the business for a lot longer than SPYR has. To see this kind of internet presence this soon is simply amazing.
In any case, once again James Brumley offers up the details. He even suggests a scope of the kind of ad-driven revenue SPYR might be producing given the network's reported web traffic.
That's all for today, folks, but stick around. Tuesday's market gains have hardly pulled the bulls' fat out of the fire. This week is still sure to be plenty interesting.